Uncertainty over the outlook due to the emerging-market slowdown, falling stock prices, yen appreciation and the UK's withdrawal from the EU

「In fiscal 2026, economic conditions in Japan and overseas are expected to remain uncertain, against a backdrop of persistently high resource prices and elevated geopolitical risks associated with worsening conditions in the Middle East.」

「一方で物価上昇の継続に加え、米国の通商政策を巡る不確実性や中東情勢の緊迫化に伴うエネルギー価格上昇への懸念、金融資本市場の急激な変動もあり、景気の先行きは依然として不透明な状況が続いております。」

「Although employment and income conditions have also improved, the sense of labor shortages remains high. Overseas, the outlook remains uncertain because the impact of US trade measures and volatility in the financial and capital markets continues to pose downside risks to the economy.」

「In the next fiscal year, the economy is expected to continue rising gradually as employment and income conditions improve and robust inbound demand increases. However, the outlook remains uncertain due to surging raw material and energy prices against a backdrop of US tariff policies and yen depreciation, as well as the impact of monetary policies in various countries.」

「During the six months ended 30 September 2024, Japan's economy was on a gradual recovery track, although some areas remained sluggish. Real wages temporarily turned positive before becoming negative again, while private consumption showed signs of recovery and capital investment also showed signs of recovery as corporate earnings improved. In overseas economies, the outlook remained uncertain because an economic downturn and developments surrounding Ukraine and the Middle East posed risks of putting downward pressure on Japan's economy.」

「During the fiscal year, corporate performance remained firm, but the sense of labor shortages remained high. In addition, private consumption continued to be restrained due to the continued decline in real wages. The outlook remained uncertain as the economy was affected by stagnation in the global economy.」

「During the nine months ended 31 December 2023, the recovery in demand resulting from the easing of activity restrictions related to COVID-19 leveled off, but the economy remained on a gradual recovery track as capital investment remained firm and inbound demand recovered to pre-pandemic levels. Although downside risks in overseas economies, particularly the United States, have eased, uncertainty continued due to the prolonged situation in Ukraine, along with a worsening labor shortage and continued negative real wage growth.」

「During the six months ended 30 September 2023, Japan's economy was on a gradual recovery track as corporate earnings, private consumption and inbound demand improved following the easing of activity restrictions related to COVID-19. However, uncertainty continued in overseas economies due to the prolonged situation in Ukraine and slowing global economic growth, as well as the worsening labor shortage and declining real wages.」

「During the three months ended 30 June 2023, Japan's economy was on a gradual recovery track due to the easing of activity restrictions related to COVID-19 and increased inbound consumption. However, it remained uncertain and contained downside risk due to the prolonged situation in Ukraine, rising prices and slowing growth in the global economy.」

「During the fiscal year, the gradual recovery from the pandemic continued as restrictions on activity related to COVID-19 were eased. However, the outlook remained uncertain due to the prolonged situation in Ukraine, surging global energy and food prices, and the impact of slowing recovery in the global economy.」

「During the nine months ended 31 December 2022, Japan's economy showed signs of recovery, mainly in domestic demand, as supply constraints eased and economic activity normalized. However, it remained uncertain and contained downside risk due to rising prices caused by global monetary tightening and surging raw material costs.」

「During the six months ended 30 September 2022, the economy maintained a recovery trend centered on private consumption, but remained uncertain and contained downside risk due to rising prices caused by surging raw material costs associated with the rapid spread of COVID-19, the Ukraine shock and rapid yen depreciation.」

「During the three months ended 30 June 2022, Japan's economy showed some signs of recovery from an economic downturn due to a temporary improvement in COVID-19 infection trends. However, the outlook became uncertain as the economy stagnated due to the emergence of new variants, surging resource prices and difficulties procuring various materials caused by worsening international conditions, and rapid yen depreciation.」

「During the nine months ended 31 December 2021, a recovery was expected as the state of emergency and other measures were lifted in response to the spread of COVID-19. However, close attention will need to be paid to the risk that the spread of new variants will cause a downturn in domestic and overseas economies.」

「During the six months ended 30 September 2021, Japan's economy remained in a difficult situation due to the impact of COVID-19. Although a recovery is expected as measures to prevent the spread of infections, including accelerated vaccination, are implemented, close attention will continue to be necessary because the spread of infections poses a risk of causing a downturn in domestic and overseas economies.」

「During the three months ended 30 June 2021, Japan's economy remained subject to restrictions on economic activity due to COVID-19. Although some positive signs were seen, including recurring profits in the manufacturing sector significantly exceeding pre-pandemic levels according to the Financial Statements Statistics of Corporations by Industry, the outlook for the economy remained uncertain due to the emergence of highly transmissible variants and repeated measures to contain infections.」

「During the fiscal year, Japan's economy and outlook became extremely challenging due to the sharp stagnation of social and economic activity caused by the spread of COVID-19. Although signs of a recovery in economic conditions have emerged as activity resumed, the outlook remains uncertain. Since the beginning of the year, a second state of emergency has been declared as COVID-19 infections spread again, and corporate conditions have continued to deteriorate.」

「During the six months ended 30 September 2020, Japan's economy and outlook became extremely challenging due to the rapid stagnation of social and economic activity caused by the spread of COVID-19. Although signs of a recovery in economic conditions have emerged as activity resumed, the outlook remains uncertain.」

「During the first three months of the fiscal year, uncertainty in the global economy increased as the COVID-19 pandemic spread worldwide. Domestic companies were also significantly affected by a severe imbalance between demand and supply, including issues involving employment. The arrival of a second wave of COVID-19 remains a concern, and uncertainty about the outlook continues.」

「Meanwhile, attention needs to be paid not only to developments in overseas economies and volatility in the financial and capital markets, but also to trends in consumer sentiment, including the impact of the consumption tax increase.」

「During the nine months ended 31 December 2019, Japan's economy remained on a gradual recovery track, with corporate earnings recovering and capital investment remaining firm. Looking ahead, US-China trade friction has been contained in the short term through measures including a partial agreement, in consideration of the US economy ahead of the US presidential election in November 2020, while geopolitical risks have increased due to the confrontation with Iran. The issue of the UK's departure from the European Union has temporarily been resolved and is showing positive signs. Although Japan's economy continues to recover gradually, considerable uncertainty remains about the outlook, including concerns about yen appreciation due to the impact of US-China trade friction and heightened geopolitical risks.」

「During the six months ended 30 September 2019, Japan's economy was expected to remain on a gradual recovery track in the near term as employment and income conditions continued to improve, although attention needed to be paid to the impact on the global economy of trade issues originating between the United States and China, the outlook for China's economy, the risk of higher crude oil prices and volatility in the financial and capital markets.」

「During the first three months of the fiscal year, Japan's economy remained on a recovery track supported by expanding domestic demand, although the outlook for external demand remained uncertain as uncertainty in the global economy increased due to intensifying US-China trade friction and rising tensions in the Middle East. Domestic companies maintained an active stance toward capital investment. However, attention will need to be paid to developments in the global economy and the political situation in East Asia.」

「Meanwhile, the intensifying US-China trade friction has begun to affect the performance of some US companies. While the Federal Reserve has shown a cautious stance on further rate hikes, China's economic slowdown is becoming increasingly evident, with new vehicle sales and retail sales declining and corporate performance in manufacturing and other sectors also beginning to deteriorate.」

「However, the economic outlook has become uncertain, and attention will need to be paid to concerns about an economic slowdown, due to the increased downside risk to the global economy from trade friction arising from protectionist trade policies in the United States and China, as well as the effects of major typhoons, torrential rain and earthquake disasters that caused damage across Japan.」

「During the first three months of the fiscal year, Japan's economy remained on a gradual recovery track, with corporate earnings and employment conditions continuing to improve domestically while uncertainty in the global economy increased due partly to the impact of protectionist policies in the United States. Although the recovery is expected to continue, attention will need to be paid to developments in the global economy and the political situation in East Asia.」

「Although growth is expected to continue in the outlook, attention will need to be paid to developments in the global economy and the political situation in East Asia.」

「Although real GDP continued to post modest positive growth and employment and income conditions continued to improve, uncertainty increased over the political and economic situations in Europe and the United States and political issues in East Asia, leaving the outlook uncertain.」

「Meanwhile, the escape from deflation was expected to take some more time as consumer prices remained weak. Overseas, uncertainty continued, including concerns about the impact on foreign exchange rates of heightened geopolitical risks in East Asia.」

「During the first three months of the fiscal year, Japan's exports continued to increase as growth in overseas economies, led by the United States, was expected to accelerate. Domestic demand also remained firm and on a recovery track, supported by improvements in employment and household income amid continued labor shortages and by construction demand related to the Olympic Games. However, concerns about slowing growth have increased as the recovery in private consumption is expected to remain weak and the economy is unlikely to gain momentum once the effects of economic measures and the surge in IT demand have run their course.」

「During the fiscal year, Japan's economy remained on a gradual recovery track overall, supported by government economic and monetary easing policies and improvements in corporate earnings and employment conditions. However, signs of weakness emerged as the economy slowed overseas and consumer spending remained sluggish.」

「During the first nine months of the fiscal year, Japan's economy remained on a gradual recovery track, supported by government economic and monetary easing policies and improvements in corporate earnings and employment conditions. However, the outlook for the economy remained uncertain due to uncertainty in overseas economies and volatility in the financial and capital markets.」

「During the first six months of the fiscal year, Japan's economy remained on a gradual recovery track, supported by government economic and monetary easing policies and improvements in corporate earnings and employment conditions. However, the outlook for the economy remained uncertain, partly due to the effects of financial market volatility, including slowing growth in China and emerging markets, weakness in the equity market and ongoing yen appreciation.」

「However, concerns over the impact of slowing growth in emerging markets, the decline in share prices and ongoing yen appreciation since the beginning of the year, and the UK's decision to leave the European Union (EU) have increased uncertainty about the outlook.」