Uncertainty in overseas economies and financial markets associated with the downturn in emerging-market economies, the UK's withdrawal from the EU, and the transition to a new US administration

「The impact of US trade policy on overseas economies was generally limited, while the US economy maintained relatively stable growth, supported by solid personal consumption and capital investment. In the euro area, low growth continued amid sluggish economic performance in major countries. In Asia, India's economy continued to maintain a relatively high growth rate, while the pace of China's growth remained moderate against a backdrop of weak domestic demand and other factors.」

「In the euro area, low growth continued against a backdrop of sluggish economic growth in the major countries. In Asia, although the Indian economy continued to maintain a relatively high growth rate, the pace of growth in the Chinese economy remained moderate against a backdrop of weak domestic demand and other factors.」

「Some economic activity, including exports to the United States, was adversely affected after the US president, Donald Trump, raised tariffs on Japan. Amid the generally limited impact of the so-called Trump tariffs on overseas economies, the US economy generally remained on track, apart from areas such as slowing employment. Meanwhile, the euro area was forced to contend with low growth as Germany and France, its core economies, stagnated. In Asia, India's economy continued to maintain high growth, while signs of a slowdown emerged in China's economy.」

「Although consumption and employment were showing some signs of slowing, the US economy remained resilient. European economies, including the euro area and the United Kingdom, which had stagnated the previous year, maintained a moderate recovery trend.」

「Among overseas economies, the US economy remained resilient despite historically substantial rate increases, while European economies, including Germany and the United Kingdom, continued to stagnate. Asian countries showed varying performance, but relatively high economic growth was generally maintained. In China, which was suffering from a property downturn, the pace of economic recovery after the lifting of the zero-COVID policy remained slow, and signs of deflation have recently begun to emerge.」

「Overseas economies continued to experience low growth as monetary tightening to contain inflation continued, particularly in Europe and the United States. In Asia, where rate increases were limited because inflationary pressure was contained, relatively high economic growth was maintained. In China, the pace of economic recovery after the lifting of the zero-COVID policy remained slow, and monetary and fiscal stimulus measures were being implemented.」

「The slowdown in overseas economies and the decline in household purchasing power resulting from higher prices acted as headwinds, while the lifting of China's zero-COVID policy and an increase in visitors to Japan following the easing of border control measures provided support. Overseas economies continued to slow as monetary tightening to contain prices continued, particularly in Europe and the United States.」

「Overseas economies have faced prolonged inflation, particularly in Europe and the United States, while central banks in various countries and regions have continued to raise interest rates to contain inflation. The likelihood of recession has risen further, particularly in the euro area and the United Kingdom. Moves toward easing China's zero-COVID policy raise expectations for a recovery in the Chinese economy, but concerns have also been raised that the spread of COVID-19 infections and other factors could cause short-term economic disruption.」

「Overseas economies are facing prolonged inflation, particularly in Europe and the United States, and central banks in various countries and regions have continued to implement substantial rate increases, making a further economic slowdown inevitable. The likelihood of recession has risen further, particularly in the euro area and the United Kingdom.」

「Overseas economies have faced increasingly severe inflationary pressure in major countries as COVID-19 infections have continued and the war in Ukraine has been prolonged. In the United States, inflation has reached its highest level in approximately 40 years. As central banks in various countries moved to strengthen monetary tightening, concerns about an economic slowdown increased, and in June the OECD (Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development) and the World Bank each revised down their forecasts for global economic growth this year (OECD: +4.5% to +3.0%; World Bank: +4.1% to +2.9%).」

「① Rising geopolitical risks, including the situation in Ukraine and US-China issues ④ Inflation concerns, including higher energy and grain prices, and monetary tightening」

「Despite the difficulty in bringing COVID-19 infections under control, overseas economies have continued to recover while maintaining a certain level of economic activity. Against this backdrop, central banks in various countries are beginning to shift toward normalizing monetary policy. However, this is viewed as a reduction in monetary accommodation carried out with due consideration for economic conditions, rather than something that would impede the process of economic normalization.」

「Overseas economies have continued to recover as economic activity has resumed with the spread of vaccination. However, as demand has recovered rapidly alongside economic normalization, supply constraints, including component shortages, higher commodity prices, transportation costs, labor costs and energy prices, and logistics delays, are increasingly acting as a drag on economies, particularly in developed countries. Concerns about prolonged inflation have also begun to emerge.」

「Measures to prevent the spread of infections and policy responses gradually began to take effect, bringing a temporary return to stability. However, a second wave emerged during the summer and a third wave toward winter, while concerns about a fourth wave have recently intensified, and conditions continued to require close attention to the impact of financial market volatility and other factors.」

「Measures to prevent the spread of infections and policy responses gradually began to take effect, bringing a temporary return to stability. However, a second wave emerged during the summer and a third wave more recently, and conditions continued to require close attention to the impact of financial market volatility and other factors.」

「During the second quarter under review (1 April 2020 to 30 September 2020), Japan's economy began under extremely challenging conditions, as the state of emergency declared in response to COVID-19 was expanded from some regions to all prefectures. Measures to prevent the spread of infections and policy responses gradually began to take effect, and the economy showed signs of returning to stability. However, concerns about a second wave of infections had not been dispelled, and conditions continued to require close attention to the impact of financial market volatility and other factors.」

「Concerns over a second wave of infections and the impact of volatility in the financial markets remain matters requiring close monitoring.」

「However, from the fourth quarter onward, concerns arose over the adverse impact of the spread of the novel coronavirus infection on economic activity.」

「During the second quarter under review (from 1 April 2019 to 30 September 2019), Japan's economy recovered moderately under continued favorable employment conditions, although concerns remained over weak exports and declining investment appetite, primarily due to overseas factors such as US-China trade friction, the UK's withdrawal from the European Union, and worsening Japan-South Korea relations.」

「During the first quarter under review (from 1 April 2019 to 30 June 2019), Japan's economy showed signs of bottoming out under continued favorable employment conditions, although concerns remained over weak exports and declining investment appetite due to concerns about a deterioration in the Chinese economy stemming from US-China trade friction and other factors.」

「Looking ahead, sufficient attention must be paid to the impact of US trade policy developments on the global economy, developments in the Chinese economy, uncertainty in overseas economies, including the UK's Brexit issue, and the impact of volatility in the financial and capital markets.」

「Meanwhile, sufficient attention must be paid to the impact of US trade policy developments on the global economy, developments in the Chinese economy, uncertainty in overseas economies, including the UK's Brexit issue, and the impact of volatility in the financial and capital markets.」

「Meanwhile, sufficient attention must be paid to developments in US trade policy and the impact on the economy of a succession of natural disasters in Japan.」

「However, the outlook remains uncertain, with concerns that downside pressure on the global economy could intensify if political instability in Southern European countries such as Italy and Spain increases and trade friction, particularly between the US and China, escalates.」

「Although attention must be paid to uncertainty in overseas economies and volatility in the financial and capital markets due to a shift in US monetary policy, concerns over protectionist policy trends, heightened geopolitical risks involving North Korea and the Middle East, and the UK's Brexit issue, further economic growth is expected as global inflation expectations rise.」

「Although attention must be paid to changes in capital flows associated with a shift in US monetary policy, concerns over protectionist policy trends, heightened geopolitical risks involving North Korea and elsewhere, the UK's Brexit issue, and volatility in overseas economies and the financial and capital markets, further economic growth is expected as global inflation expectations rise.」

「Looking ahead, the outlook remains uncertain, and attention must be paid to uncertainty in overseas economies and instability in the financial and capital markets due to changes in capital flows associated with a shift in US monetary policy, concerns over protectionist policy trends, heightened geopolitical risks involving North Korea and elsewhere, and the UK's Brexit issue.」

「Looking ahead, the outlook remains uncertain, and attention must be paid to uncertainty in overseas economies and volatility in the financial and capital markets due to the risk of a downturn in emerging-market economies, concerns over the UK's Brexit issue and protectionist policy trends under the new US administration, and heightened geopolitical risks involving North Korea and elsewhere.」

「However, the outlook remains uncertain, with concerns including downside risks to emerging-market economies, particularly China, the UK's Brexit issue, greater uncertainty in overseas economies associated with the transition of the US administration, and the potential impact on volatility in the financial and capital markets.」