Downside economic risk from slowing overseas economies, US-China trade friction and other factors
First written in FY2020-Q3. 4 of 11 entries say "Worsened", first in FY2024-Q1. Latest entry: FY2026.
The whole theme swung hardest in 2022: 124 of 167 companies on the "Worse" side.
- FY2026WorsenedAnnual report
「Exports and production generally remained flat, affected by the slowdown in overseas economies and US trade policy, with particular weakness in automobiles and capital goods. The Chinese economy remained sluggish as the prolonged adjustment in the real estate sector, weak domestic demand, deflationary pressures and changes in the external environment weighed on it, although exports provided some support.」
Regarding risks from a slowdown in overseas economies, it identifies the impact of US trade policy on domestic exports and production, as well as China’s real estate downturn and weak domestic demand, as continuing downside factors. - FY2025-H1WorsenedAnnual report
「In addition, the euro area appears increasingly likely to be emerging from its period of sluggish growth, while price trends also appear increasingly likely to stabilize, albeit gradually. In China, large-scale economic measures have been introduced in response to the prolonged real estate downturn and associated concerns about the financial system.」
It refers to the possibility of a recovery in Europe from sluggish growth, while stating that the real estate downturn and concerns about China’s financial system persist. It continues to identify uncertainty and downside factors in overseas economies. - FY2024-Q3WorsenedAnnual report
「In addition, the euro area’s economic slowdown is continuing, and attention is also focused on the impact of the European Parliament election, which will determine the EU’s direction as an organization. In China, despite ongoing risks in the real estate market, the recovery following the lifting of the zero-COVID policy is beginning to lose momentum, and uncertainty surrounding the global economy is generally increasing.」
Regarding overseas economies, it describes the euro area’s economic slowdown and the loss of momentum in China’s recovery, concluding that uncertainty surrounding the global economy is increasing. - FY2024-Q1WorsenedAnnual report
「Meanwhile, the euro area has recorded negative growth for 2 consecutive quarters, and recent economic indicators have increasingly surprised on the downside, making the economic slowdown more pronounced. In China, the recovery following economic reopening is also beginning to run its course, and concerns about the outlook are spreading.」
Regarding downside risks to overseas economies, it describes 2 consecutive quarters of negative growth in the euro area, the waning of China’s recovery and growing concerns about its outlook. - FY2023-Q3More specific signs of a slowdown in the US and European economies and stagnation in the Chinese economyAnnual report
「Overseas economies generally remained on a recovery trend, but the recovery slowed, mainly in the US and Europe, from the summer onward. The US economy continued to recover, led by services consumption, while the labor market remained firm, although manufacturing sentiment and the housing market deteriorated due to the adverse effects of high inflation and the Federal Reserve’s monetary tightening. In Europe, signs of an economic slowdown intensified as inflation driven by rising energy prices and other factors adversely affected the economy. In China, regulations under the zero-COVID policy and deterioration in real estate market conditions weighed on the economy, while in December the sharp increase in infections following the de facto suspension of the zero-COVID policy led to economic stagnation.」
Regarding downside risks to overseas economies, it describes the deterioration in manufacturing, housing market conditions and the economy in the US and Europe due to high inflation and monetary tightening, as well as the deterioration in China’s real estate market and economic stagnation resulting from a sharp increase in infections. - FY2023-Q2More specific effects of accelerating inflation and downward pressure on the Chinese economyAnnual report
「Overseas economies generally remained on a recovery trend, although signs of a sharper slowdown emerged in some areas. While the US labor market remained firm, personal consumption showed signs of stagnation and inventory adjustments took place amid high inflation. In the April-June quarter, the economy contracted for the second consecutive quarter, heightening recession concerns. In China, lockdowns in some major cities under the zero-COVID policy and deterioration in the real estate market weighed on the economy, which showed signs of weakness.」
It specifically describes the downward pressure from high inflation and two consecutive quarters of negative growth in the US, as well as lockdowns and deterioration in the real estate market in China, while the overseas recovery trend continued. - FY2023-Q1Economic concerns due to accelerating inflation and lockdowns in Chinese citiesAnnual report
「The US and European economies generally remained firm as the effects of the pandemic faded, but sentiment among businesses and consumers deteriorated, and concerns about the economic outlook emerged as inflation accelerated, with consumer price indexes in both the US and Europe rising by around 8% year on year. In China, some major cities saw lockdowns under the zero-COVID policy from April through May, restraining economic activity.」
It states that the US and European economies were generally firm, while specifically describing economic concerns caused by accelerating inflation in the US and Europe and restrictions on economic activity resulting from lockdowns in China. - FY2022-Q3More specific factors behind the slowdown in the Chinese economyAnnual report
「The pace of recovery in the Chinese economy slowed due to the pandemic, the impact of regulations on the real estate industry, power shortages and other factors.」
Regarding the slower pace of recovery in the Chinese economy, it specifically cites factors including the pandemic, regulations on the real estate industry and power shortages. - FY2022-Q2Slower pace of recovery in the Chinese economyAnnual report
「Overseas economies generally staged a gradual recovery. The US economy continued to recover, supported in part by the wider rollout of COVID-19 vaccinations and the effects of the Biden administration’s large-scale economic measures. The European economy also staged a gradual recovery as infection trends peaked in various countries and economic reopening progressed. The Chinese economy moved toward a stable recovery, although the pace of recovery slowed somewhat due to the effects of the pandemic and other factors.」
It states that overseas economies recovered overall, while the pace of recovery in China slowed somewhat due to the effects of the pandemic and other factors. - FY2022-Q1MitigatedAnnual report
「Overseas economies generally staged a gradual recovery. The US economy continued to recover, supported in part by the wider rollout of COVID-19 vaccinations and the effects of the Biden administration’s large-scale economic measures. The European economy also staged a gradual recovery as infection trends peaked in various countries and economic reopening progressed. The Chinese economy moved toward a stable recovery.」
Regarding downside risks to overseas economies, it states that the economies of the US, Europe and China generally recovered, with either a recovery trend or a stable recovery. - FY2020-Q3First statedAnnual report
「During the first 3 quarters of the current consolidated fiscal year, the Japanese economy remained weak in exports and production, partly due to the slowdown in overseas economies and US-China trade friction. …The Chinese economy continued to slow, with 2019 growth at 6.1% year on year, its lowest level in 29 years.」
It states that the slowdown in overseas economies and US-China trade friction appeared in weak exports and production, while China’s growth rate also fell to 6.1% year on year, its lowest level in 29 years.