Slowing Emerging-Market Economies, Yen Appreciation and Sluggish Consumer Spending

「During the interim consolidated accounting period (1 March 2026 to 31 August 2026), the Japanese economy continued on a gradual recovery track, supported by improving corporate earnings and employment and income conditions. However, uncertainty over the outlook remained high and the situation continued to require close monitoring, owing to the prolonged rise in prices, fluctuations in foreign exchange markets and heightened geopolitical risks, particularly in the Middle East.」

「一方で物価上昇の長期化や為替相場の変動に加え、中東地域をはじめとする地政学的リスクの高まりなど、先行きの不透明感は依然として強く、予断を許さない状況が続いております。」

「The outlook for the economy remains uncertain and unpredictable due to factors including developments in U.S. trade policy and tariff measures, fluctuations in energy prices against the backdrop of heightened tensions in Iran, and higher import prices resulting from the weaker yen.」

「The outlook for the economy remains uncertain and unpredictable due to factors including developments in U.S. trade policy and tariff measures, fluctuations in energy prices against the backdrop of heightened tensions in Iran, and higher import prices resulting from the weaker yen.」

「Corporate performance remained solid, and employment and income conditions were on a moderate recovery trend. However, the economic outlook remained uncertain due to unstable energy and resource price levels associated with US policy developments and rising global geopolitical risks.」

「During the six months ended 31 August 2024 (1 March 2024 to 31 August 2024), Japan's economy remained on a moderate recovery trend overall as corporate performance, particularly in exports and production, remained solid. However, the economic outlook remained uncertain due to downside risks to overseas economies and instability in the Middle East.」

「During the three months ended 31 May 2024 (1 March 2024 to 31 May 2024), Japan's economy remained on a moderate recovery trend overall as corporate performance remained solid. However, the economic outlook remained uncertain due to global monetary tightening, the slowdown in the Chinese economy, and the prolonged invasion of Ukraine.」

「Economic activity has moved toward normalization and the economy has recovered as the transition to a post-COVID environment has progressed. However, the economic outlook remains uncertain due to surging resource and energy prices resulting from the prolonged invasion of Ukraine and instability in the Middle East, as well as sharp foreign exchange fluctuations.」

「Although social and economic activity has moved toward normalization as restrictions to prevent the spread of COVID-19 were eased, including the reclassification of COVID-19 as a Class 5 infectious disease in May 2023, the economic outlook remains uncertain due to surging resource and energy prices resulting from Russia's invasion of Ukraine and rising prices accompanying the yen's rapid depreciation.」

「Although social and economic activity has moved toward normalization as restrictions to prevent the spread of COVID-19 were eased, including the reclassification of COVID-19 as a Class 5 infectious disease in May 2023, the economic outlook remains uncertain due to surging material and energy prices resulting from Russia's invasion of Ukraine and the yen's rapid depreciation.」

「Regarding the outlook, domestic demand is expected to weaken due to global inflation and monetary tightening, while surging resource and energy prices resulting from the prolonged situation in Ukraine are also expected to persist, leaving the economic outlook unpredictable.」

「During the nine months ended 30 November 2022 (1 March 2022 to 30 November 2022), social and economic activity in Japan showed signs of a gradual recovery due to the effects of various government policies, including the easing of restrictions. However, the outlook remained uncertain due to sharp foreign exchange fluctuations and surging resource and crude oil prices resulting from the prolonged situation in Ukraine.」

「During the six months ended 31 August 2022 (1 March 2022 to 31 August 2022), Japan's economy showed signs of recovery in social and economic activity as restrictions related to COVID-19 were eased. However, the outlook remained uncertain due to the resurgence of infections caused by new variants, surging resource and crude oil prices resulting from Russia's invasion of Ukraine, and rising prices accompanying the yen's rapid depreciation.」

「During the first three months ended 31 May 2022 (1 March 2022 to 31 May 2022), Japan's economy showed signs of moving toward normalization as the number of new COVID-19 infections declined. However, the outlook became uncertain due to surging resource and crude oil prices resulting from Russia's invasion of Ukraine and the yen's rapid depreciation.」

「Regarding the outlook, countries around the world have been forced to take emergency measures as variants of COVID-19 have spread globally, and we expect conditions to remain uncertain. In addition, tensions continue over the situation involving Russia and Ukraine, raising concerns about surging crude oil prices and the impact on international logistics, and further disruption is expected.」

「During the nine months ended 30 November 2021 (1 March 2021 to 30 November 2021), Japan's economy remained in a difficult situation as the resurgence of COVID-19 suppressed economic activity. Although signs of recovery emerged as the number of infections declined from autumn 2021 following the start of various measures and vaccinations, the economic outlook remained uncertain due to the emergence of new variants and other factors.」

「During the six months ended 31 August 2021 (1 March 2021 to 31 August 2021), Japan's economy remained in a difficult situation as the resurgence of COVID-19 suppressed economic activity. Although various measures and vaccinations began in earnest and their effects are anticipated, the outlook continued to be uncertain as states of emergency and priority preventive measures were imposed intermittently.」

「During the first three months ended 31 May 2021 (1 March 2021 to 31 May 2021), Japan's economy remained in a difficult situation as the resurgence of COVID-19 suppressed economic activity. Although COVID-19 vaccinations began in earnest and their effects are anticipated, concerns about the spread of variants also remain, and the outlook continues to be uncertain.」

「Japan's economy during the consolidated fiscal year deteriorated sharply as COVID-19 spread, resulting in a very difficult situation marked by declining corporate earnings and worsening employment conditions. The outlook remains uncertain.」

「During the nine months ended 30 November 2020 (1 March 2020 to 30 November 2020), Japan's economy remained in a difficult situation due to the impact of COVID-19. Although economic activity gradually resumed after the state of emergency was lifted and signs of a recovery emerged, the number of infections showed a tendency to increase, leaving the economic outlook uncertain.」

「During the six months ended 31 August 2020 (1 March 2020 to 31 August 2020), Japan's economy was in an extremely difficult situation as the impact of COVID-19 suppressed all economic activity, including corporate activity and consumer spending. Even after the state of emergency was lifted, the economy deteriorated rapidly as economic activity stagnated due to requests to refrain from going out and suspend business operations and other measures to prevent the spread of COVID-19, leaving the outlook uncertain.」

「Infections with the novel coronavirus spread around the world. In Japan, the government declared a state of emergency in April as infections surged, restricting corporate activity and causing consumer spending to fall and the economy to deteriorate rapidly. The outlook remained uncertain.」

「Regarding the outlook, the international economy deteriorated following the US-China economic friction and collapse in crude oil prices since last year. In addition, the spread of the novel coronavirus, which has affected countries around the world since the beginning of this year, is having a serious impact on Japanese society and the economy.」

「In addition to uncertainty in the global economy due to the slowdown in the Chinese economy, concerns about the impact of the consumption tax increase and a succession of natural disasters have kept the outlook uncertain.」

「However, continued attention will be required regarding the uncertainty in overseas economies, including the prolonged US-China trade friction and the UK's EU withdrawal issue, and their impact on Japan's domestic financial and capital markets. The outlook also became increasingly uncertain amid the impact of the slowdown in the Chinese economy on overseas economies.」

「During the first nine months of the fiscal year ending 29 February 2020 (1 March 2019 to 31 May 2019), concerns about a downturn in the global economy due to escalating US-China trade friction and instability in the Middle East led to a predominance of cautious views on the economic outlook. As external demand weakened, signs of a slowdown became apparent mainly in corporate production and exports. Overseas, the impact of prolonged US-China trade friction and concerns about economic stagnation in countries around the world continued to leave the outlook uncertain.」

「Overseas, concerns about a downturn in the global economy due to the impact of prolonged US-China trade friction and the slowdown in the Chinese economy also left the outlook uncertain.」

「Overseas, the impact of escalating US-China trade friction on the global economy also left the outlook uncertain.」

「During the six months ended 31 August 2018 (1 March 2018 to 31 August 2018), strong demand for capital investment, supported by ample corporate funds and low interest rates, was maintained in Japan. However, the impact of natural disasters across Japan and higher raw material prices and personnel expenses weighed on the economy, which progressed at a somewhat stagnant pace after its recovery trend. Overseas, concerns about the impact of escalating US-China trade friction on the global economy also left the outlook uncertain.」

「During the first nine months of the fiscal year ending 28 February 2019 (1 March 2018 to 31 May 2018), rising costs, including higher procurement costs due to higher crude oil prices and higher personnel expenses, weighed on Japan's economy, which progressed at a somewhat stagnant pace after its recovery trend. Overseas, concerns about the impact of US-China trade friction and US protectionist policies on the global economy remained sources of concern, and the outlook continued to be uncertain.」

「During the consolidated fiscal year ended 28 February 2018 (1 March 2017 to 28 February 2018), Japan's economy remained on a moderate recovery trend, with a pickup in capital investment and improvements in employment conditions against a backdrop of strong corporate performance. Overseas, the impact on the economy of growing political instability in the United States and European countries and rising geopolitical risks in East Asia kept the outlook uncertain.」

「During the nine months ended 30 November 2017 (1 March 2017 to 30 November 2017), Japan's economy remained on a moderate recovery trend, with a pickup in capital investment and improvements in employment conditions against a backdrop of strong corporate performance. Overseas, the impact on the economy of growing political instability in the United States and European countries and rising geopolitical risks in East Asia kept the outlook uncertain.」

「Overseas, uncertainty about the outlook continued, including concern about the impact on foreign exchange markets of rising geopolitical risks in East Asia.」

「During the first quarter of the consolidated fiscal year ending 28 February 2018 (1 March 2017 to 31 May 2017), Japan's economy remained on a moderate recovery trend, partly due to the effects of the government's continuing economic and monetary policies. Overseas, however, concerns about an economic slowdown in China and emerging markets and political risks in the United States and Europe remained sources of concern, leaving the outlook uncertain.」

「During the consolidated fiscal year ended 28 February 2017 (1 March 2016 to 28 February 2017), Japan's economy remained on a moderate recovery trend, supported by the government's ongoing economic policies and the Bank of Japan's continued monetary easing measures, but lacked strength because of the prolonged weakness in consumer spending. Overseas, emerging-market economies slowed and protectionism gained ground in the advanced economies of the United States and Europe, while geopolitically the world entered a period of increasing uncertainty about the outlook.」

「Meanwhile, yen appreciation associated with the uncertain outlook following the slowdown in emerging-market economies and the UK's decision to leave the EU became entrenched. Continued weakness in consumer spending and stagnation in corporate earnings also meant that growth remained lackluster.」

「The yen appreciated rapidly amid an unstable financial market environment caused by the slowdown in emerging economies and the UK's EU withdrawal issue, while consumer spending and corporate earnings also showed signs of stagnation, and uncertainty about the outlook continued.」

「Corporate earnings deteriorated somewhat due to a marked slowdown in emerging economies and the yen's appreciation, while consumer spending remained sluggish.」