Downside risks to the global economy and domestic economic conditions

「In the United States, personal consumption remained resilient amid continued upward pressure on prices from the expansion of tariff policies. However, against a backdrop of uncertainty surrounding various policies and persistently high interest rates, companies became more cautious about capital expenditure and inventory investment, and the economy followed a trend of gradual slowdown.」

「During the six-month period ended 30 September 2025, the global economy maintained a moderate recovery trend, but uncertainty about the outlook continued because of rising trade friction, heightened geopolitical risks and uncertainty surrounding changes in monetary policy.」

「In the United States, personal consumption remained firm, but the risk of downward pressure on the economy increased as concerns grew about the uncertainty surrounding the policies of the second Trump administration, including tariff increases. In China, subdued economic conditions continued because of the prolonged real estate downturn and slowing personal consumption, while deterioration in domestic and external demand resulting from higher tariffs between the United States and China was also a concern.」

「During the six-month period ended 30 September 2024, monetary tightening policies in the United States and Europe shifted toward easing, but uncertainty continued because of the prolonged stagnation of the Chinese economy, elevated geopolitical risks resulting from worsening conditions in the Middle East, and the impact of the U.S. presidential election.」

「During the nine-month period ended 31 December 2023, monetary tightening in the United States and Europe reached a turning point as high inflation began to ease, while uncertainty continued because of China’s economic stagnation and the impact of worsening conditions in the Middle East.」

「During the six-month period ended 30 September 2023, uncertainty continued in the global economy, including persistently high interest rates and inflation in the United States and Europe, China’s economic slowdown and escalating tensions in the Middle East.」

「During the three-month period ended 30 June 2023, uncertainty continued in the global economy, including the prolonged Russia-Ukraine war, persistent inflation in countries around the world and the risk of an economic slowdown resulting from continued monetary tightening.」

「During the consolidated fiscal year, factors of concern such as the prolonged Russia-Ukraine war and partial supply chain disruptions continued, while inflation and monetary tightening in countries around the world appeared to be reaching a turning point, with signs of a soft landing for the economy emerging. However, downward pressure strengthened because of concerns about the financial system originating in the United States, creating a situation in which uncertainty was again increasing.」

「During the nine-month period ended 31 December 2022, uncertainty continued as factors of concern, including the prolonged Russia-Ukraine war, China’s “zero-COVID” policy and the spread of infections after its removal, and partial supply chain disruptions, persisted. At the same time, inflation in countries around the world and the monetary tightening in response to it appeared to be approaching a turning point, making whether a soft landing could be achieved an increasingly important focus.」

「During the six-month period ended 30 September 2022, downward pressure on the global economy continued to strengthen as developed countries made clear that curbing inflation was their top priority, while higher resource and commodity prices resulting from the situation between Russia and Ukraine and the impact of China’s zero-COVID policy added to the pressure.」

「During the nine-month period ended 30 June 2022, downward pressure on the global economy continued to strengthen as developed countries made clear that curbing inflation was their top priority, while higher resource and commodity prices resulting from the Ukraine crisis and the impact of China’s “zero-COVID policy” added to the pressure.」

「During the consolidated fiscal year, the global economy recovered rapidly in the first half as economies normalised with the progress of vaccination. However, the subsequent emergence of variant viruses, global supply chain disruptions and accelerating inflation in countries around the world, together with the impact of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February and the sanctions imposed by countries in response, are causes for concern as factors that could drive the global economy below expectations.」

「The global economy during the nine-month period ended 31 December 2021 recovered rapidly as economies normalised with the progress of vaccination. However, the emergence of variant viruses, disruptions to supply chains and accelerating inflation have also created uncertainty about the outlook. In China, restrictions on electricity supplies and the real estate market, together with activity restrictions and lockdowns under the “zero-COVID policy,” have constrained economic activity, slowing the pace of recovery. In Japan, repeated declarations of a state of emergency and the resulting restrictions on activity, as well as shortages of parts and materials and higher raw material prices, have left the Japanese economy with the slowest recovery among the major economies.」

「During the current second-quarter cumulative consolidated period (1 April 2021 to 30 September 2021), the global economy had undergone a rapid recovery led by the US, but optimism receded as the spread of variants, supply-chain disruptions and rising international commodity prices created headwinds. In China, the slowdown became increasingly pronounced as the spread of variants, restrictions on electricity supply, regulation of the property market and a policy shift from growth to redistribution exerted downward pressure.」

「While major developed economies performed well, emerging markets continued to face difficult economic conditions because of delays in vaccination. Inflationary pressure from rising global commodity prices and damage to supply chains from the spread of infections also expanded, strengthening the trend toward a K-shaped global recovery based on vaccination progress. Japan, where vaccination lagged significantly behind other developed countries, achieved only a slow recovery among major economies because repeated declarations of a state of emergency curtailed consumption activity.」

「During the current third-quarter cumulative consolidated period (1 April 2020 to 31 December 2020), the global economy began to recover after facing its largest contraction on record due to the global spread of COVID-19, supported by the full mobilisation of policy measures and progress in containing infections. However, renewed infections strengthened signs of stagnation once again.」

「During the current second-quarter cumulative consolidated period (1 April 2020 to 30 September 2020), the global economy faced the largest contraction on record as COVID-19 continued to spread worldwide. However, following progress in measures to contain infections, the economy began to recover, although the recovery was uneven.」

「During the current first-quarter cumulative consolidated period (1 April 2020 to 30 June 2020), the global economy faced a historic contraction as the novel coronavirus disease spread worldwide, resulting in lockdowns and the loss of demand and employment. Japan’s economy also contracted more sharply than after the global financial crisis as economic activity was significantly restricted by the approximately two-month state of emergency and associated requests to refrain from going out, although the impact varied to some extent by industry.」

「During the current third-quarter cumulative consolidated period (1 April 2019 to 31 December 2019), the global economy showed signs of slowing because of the effects of US-China trade friction and geopolitical uncertainty. In the US, the longest economic expansion on record continued, but corporate sentiment was deteriorating, particularly in manufacturing affected by trade friction. In Europe, business sentiment was also deteriorating amid weakness in manufacturing caused by slowing exports and the effects of the UK’s withdrawal from the EU. Asian emerging markets showed signs of slowing as exports remained sluggish because of China’s economic slowdown and the effects of trade friction. In China, the slowdown in growth caused by intensifying trade friction continued. The Japanese economy also showed signs of slowing amid global uncertainty and the effects of the consumption tax increase and domestic natural disasters.」

「During the current second-quarter cumulative consolidated period (1 April 2019 to 30 September 2019), the global economy showed signs of slowing because of uncertainty stemming from trade friction and geopolitical conditions. In the US, business sentiment was deteriorating, particularly in manufacturing, and growth was moderating despite support from a shift in monetary policy. In Europe, business sentiment was also deteriorating amid weakness in manufacturing caused by slowing exports and the effects of the UK’s withdrawal from the EU. Exports in Asian emerging markets remained sluggish and the economies showed signs of slowing because of China’s economic slowdown and trade friction. In China, low growth continued under the impact of intensifying trade friction.」

「During the current first-quarter cumulative consolidated period (1 April 2019 to 30 June 2019), the global economy showed signs of slowing as a result of intensifying trade friction and associated reviews of capital investment. In the US, personal consumption and capital investment remained firm, but exports were sluggish and the economy was beginning to slow. In Europe, employment and income conditions recovered moderately, but uncertainty continued, partly because of the effects of the UK’s withdrawal from the EU. Asian emerging markets maintained relatively robust growth, led by domestic demand, but growth in China slowed under the impact of intensifying trade friction despite support from monetary and fiscal policies.」

「During the consolidated fiscal year, the global economy continued to grow moderately despite concerns about disruption in financial markets and the intensification of trade friction. In Europe, concerns arose over the effects of the UK’s withdrawal from the EU, the slowdown in the German economy and fiscal uncertainty in Italy. Asian emerging markets also shifted to moderate deceleration owing to factors including higher interest rates, while economic growth in China slowed amid intensifying trade friction.」

「During the current third-quarter cumulative consolidated period (1 April 2018 to 31 December 2018), the global economy continued to grow moderately despite concerns about disruption in financial markets and the intensification of the trade war. In the US, although financial markets were disrupted following changes in the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy, the economy remained in a sustained expansion phase approaching the longest on record, supported by improvements in employment and income conditions and the tax-cut effects of tax reform. Europe also remained in relatively good condition despite concerns about the UK’s withdrawal from the EU and the political situation in various countries. Conditions in Asian emerging markets generally remained favourable, but economic growth in China slowed amid intensifying trade friction.」

「During the current second-quarter cumulative consolidated period (1 April 2018 to 30 September 2018), the global economy continued to grow moderately despite concerns about geopolitical risks and the intensification of the trade war. The US economy continued to expand, supported by improvements in employment and income conditions and the tax-cut effects of tax reform. Europe also remained in good condition despite concerns about the UK’s withdrawal from the EU and the political situation in various countries. Although the effects of US monetary policy and other factors are a concern for China and Asian emerging markets, they generally continued to grow steadily.」

「During the current first-quarter cumulative consolidated period (1 April 2018 to 30 June 2018), the global economy continued to grow moderately despite concerns about geopolitical risks and the intensification of trade friction stemming from US protectionism. The US economy remained robust, with employment and personal consumption continuing to expand. Europe also remained in good condition despite concerns about the UK’s withdrawal from the EU and the political situation in various countries. China and Asian emerging markets continued to grow generally steadily despite the effects of US monetary policy. The Japanese economy continued to expand, supported by resilient domestic and overseas economies, as capital investment and employment expanded and corporate earnings remained high.」

「During the consolidated fiscal year, the global economy continued to grow moderately despite uncertainty, including geopolitical risks.」

「During the current third-quarter cumulative consolidated period (1 April 2017 to 31 December 2017), the global economy continued to grow moderately despite uncertainty, including geopolitical risks. In the US, personal consumption remained firm, while capital investment and exports expanded steadily, making the economy increasingly robust. In Europe, solid expansion continued despite concerns about the effects of the UK’s withdrawal from the EU and other factors. Conditions in China and Asian emerging markets also generally remained favourable. The Japanese economy remained on a moderate recovery trend, supported by the recovery in exports and expansion in capital investment resulting from the recovery of the global economy.」

「During the current second-quarter cumulative consolidated period (1 April 2017 to 30 September 2017), the global economy continued to grow moderately despite uncertainty, including geopolitical risks. In the US, the pace of growth in personal consumption recovered, while capital investment and exports expanded steadily, making the economy increasingly robust. In Europe, solid expansion continued despite concerns about the effects of the UK’s withdrawal from the EU and other factors. Conditions in China and Asian emerging markets also generally remained favourable. The Japanese economy remained on a moderate recovery trend, supported by the recovery in exports and expansion in capital investment resulting from the recovery of the global economy.」

「Economic expansion in China and Asian emerging markets showed signs of reaching a pause, but the global economy remained on a moderate recovery trend, helped by a recovery in crude oil prices. In Japan, personal consumption remained sluggish despite improvements in employment and income conditions against the backdrop of various government policies. However, corporate earnings expanded steadily as exports and production recovered, and the economy remained on a moderate recovery trend.」

「The Japanese economy remained on a moderate recovery trend, supported by the effects of the government’s economic policies and the Bank of Japan’s monetary policy despite continued weakness in personal consumption. However, uncertainty about the outlook continued, owing to concerns about overseas developments, including political risks in Europe and US policy trends.」

「The Japanese economy remained on a moderate recovery trend, supported by the effects of the government’s economic policies and the Bank of Japan’s monetary policy despite continued weakness in personal consumption. However, uncertainty about the outlook continued, owing to issues including the UK’s withdrawal from the EU and the effect of the new US administration on the economy.」

「Uncertainty continued amid rising global downside economic risks, against a backdrop of China’s economic stagnation, the slowdown in Asian and emerging-market economies, and political instability in Europe stemming from issues including the UK’s withdrawal from the European Union (EU). The Japanese economy generally remained stagnant as the appreciation of the yen and falling share prices pressured corporate earnings and personal consumption remained sluggish.」