China slowdown, sharp drop in crude oil prices, weakness in emerging markets

「Looking at the global economy during the first quarter of the current consolidated cumulative period, uncertainty surrounding the future of trade policy centered on U.S. tariff measures continued, while inflationary pressure from heightened tensions in the Middle East, surging crude oil prices, concerns over energy supplies and volatility in financial markets increased uncertainty and became a major burden on the global economy.」

「Although uncertainty rose sharply following the start of U.S. tariff measures, some uncertainty about the outlook eased recently, as agreements were reached with Japan, Europe and others even as trade negotiations with China and India continued. At the same time, the prolonged war in Ukraine and the Palestinian issue remained concerns for the outlook for the global economy.」

「Weak personal consumption and capital investment resulting from a global recession caused by the situations in Russia and Ukraine and the Middle East, as well as the effects of the United States, China and other countries, may adversely affect the operating results and financial position of our group.」

「An overview of the global economy during the interim consolidated accounting period shows that economic growth remained broadly solid, while the direction of monetary policy began to change, with interest rate cuts implemented in Europe and the United States as inflation eased. At the same time, concerns grew about slower growth due to geopolitical tensions, including heightened tensions in the Middle East and moves to raise tariffs on imports from China to counter China's excess production capacity.」

「Weak personal consumption and capital investment resulting from a global recession caused by the situations in Russia and Ukraine and the Middle East, as well as the effects of the United States, China and other countries, may adversely affect the operating results and financial position of our group.」

「An overview of the global economy during the cumulative nine-month period of the current fiscal year shows that, while global inflation was beginning to peak, economic conditions were trending weaker due to persistently high interest rates and other factors. In addition, conflict erupted following an attack on Israel by the Palestinian militant group Hamas, leading to sporadic demonstrations around the world over the release of hostages and a humanitarian ceasefire. Concerns also grew about an expansion of the conflict involving Iran-backed groups, including intensifying Houthi attacks in the Red Sea.」

「Interest rates also remained elevated, raising concerns over debt due to higher interest expense and over a slowdown in the global economy resulting from deteriorating conditions in China’s property market. In China, the central bank cut interest rates for the second time this year and the government implemented measures to stimulate domestic demand, but concerns over an economic deterioration originating in the property market intensified, with consumer sentiment worsening and residential sales remaining weak. In emerging markets, persistent inflation and weak external demand led to slower economic growth.」

「Looking at the global economy during the three-month cumulative period of the current fiscal year, the economy entered a moderate recovery trend, supported by expanding demand following the resumption of economic activity after the COVID-19 pandemic and the easing of production constraints due to the recovery in semiconductor supply. While the decline in energy prices, including crude oil, provided some respite from global inflation, deterioration in the business environment due to prolonged monetary tightening and uncertainty over the outlook for financial markets remained.」

「Although the global economy was on a recovery trend from the COVID-19 pandemic, persistent inflation caused by the prolonged war in Ukraine and other factors became a burden on the economic recovery. In addition, uncertainty over the outlook intensified due to rising economic security risks and the spread of systemic credit concerns triggered by bank failures in the United States.」

「Looking at the global economy during the nine-month cumulative period of the current fiscal year, inflation accelerated mainly in developed economies, and concerns over a recession increased due to the effects of rapid monetary tightening and China’s zero-COVID policy.」

「The prolonged war in Ukraine caused global inflation to accelerate, including through higher commodity prices, becoming a drag on the economic recovery. In addition, concerns over slower growth increased due to the continued zero-COVID policy in China and global monetary tightening.」

「Looking at the global economy during the three-month cumulative period of the current fiscal year, vaccinations progressed and economic activity fully resumed. However, lockdowns under China’s zero-COVID policy caused supply chain disruptions, including supply constraints resulting from logistics disruptions, becoming a drag on the economic recovery. In addition, the prolonged war in Ukraine accelerated global inflation through higher commodity prices and other factors, and uncertainty over the outlook persisted.」

「Looking at the global economy during the current fiscal year, the spread of successive COVID-19 variants worldwide and supply constraints caused by logistics disruptions led to economic stagnation and supply chain disruptions. Meanwhile, as vaccinations progressed mainly in developed economies and economic activity fully resumed, the outbreak of the Ukraine crisis caused further increases in market prices and intensified uncertainty over the outlook.」

「Looking at the global economy during the nine-month cumulative period of the current fiscal year, vaccinations against COVID-19 progressed worldwide and economic activity fully resumed. However, supply chain disruptions continued due to supply constraints resulting from renewed infections with new variants and logistics disruptions, intensifying concerns over economic stagnation.」

「Looking at the global economy during the six-month cumulative period of the current fiscal year, vaccinations against COVID-19 progressed mainly in developed economies, but the renewed spread of infections caused by the Delta variant intensified signs of stagnation in economies that had been on a recovery trend. In addition, concerns over the impact on manufacturing supply chains increased due to the spread of infections in Southeast Asia and elsewhere.」

「Looking at the global economy during the three-month cumulative period of the current fiscal year, economic conditions entered a recovery trend as COVID-19 infections subsided to some extent, mainly in Europe and the United States, although the extent of improvement varied by country depending on vaccination rates. The US economy recovered sharply and progressed toward normalization against the backdrop of advances in vaccinations and large-scale economic measures. China’s economic recovery continued, with improvements in employment and income conditions, expanding personal consumption, and both imports and exports trending upward, returning to pre-pandemic levels. Emerging-market economies remained weak due to the continued spread of infections and delays in vaccine distribution.」

「Looking at the global economy during the current fiscal year, economic conditions deteriorated sharply due to the worldwide spread of COVID-19. In particular, prolonged restrictions on activity accompanying the renewed spread of infections in Europe, the United States and elsewhere since the third quarter intensified signs of stagnation in the fourth quarter.」

「Looking at the global economy during the nine-month cumulative period of the current fiscal year, the global economy, which had been on a recovery trend, again showed stronger signs of stagnation as COVID-19 infections spread again worldwide, despite differences in infection levels and government measures among countries.」

「Looking at the global economy during the six-month cumulative period of the current fiscal year, economic activity that had stagnated resumed as countries eased measures to contain the spread of COVID-19, and the economy entered a moderate recovery trend, although conditions varied by region depending on the spread of infections.」

「Looking at the global economy during the three-month cumulative period of the current fiscal year, economic activity stagnated due to the spread of COVID-19 that had continued since the previous fourth quarter, and the global economy deteriorated significantly.」

「In the fourth quarter, the global economic slowdown intensified as economic activity was suspended in countries around the world and financial markets were disrupted due to the spread of COVID-19.」

「Looking at the global economy during the nine-month cumulative period of the current fiscal year, the overall economy entered a slowdown trend due to weak economic conditions in Europe and China, despite the resilience of the US economy. In addition, concerns over a global economic slowdown intensified due to the prolonged confrontation between the US and China.」

「Looking at the global economy during the six-month cumulative period of the current fiscal year, the overall economy entered a slowdown trend due to weak economic conditions in Europe and China, despite the resilience of the US economy. In addition, concerns over a global economic slowdown intensified due to the intensifying confrontation between the US and China.」

「Looking at the global economy during the three-month cumulative period of the current fiscal year, the overall economy entered a slowdown trend due to weak economic conditions in Europe and China, despite the resilience of the US economy. In China, under a growth strategy shift emphasizing quality over quantity, the economy continued to rebalance from investment-led to consumption-led growth. Economic policies including tax cuts and subsidies supported the economy, but the slowdown trend continued due to stagnant infrastructure investment and deteriorating consumer sentiment. Uncertainty over the outlook also increased due to intensifying trade friction with the United States. Emerging-market economies slowed moderately due to lower exports resulting from the slowdown in China and other factors, as well as weak resource prices.」

「Looking at the global economy during the current fiscal year, the overall economy entered a slowdown trend due to weak economic conditions in Europe and China, despite the resilience of the US economy. In China, under a growth strategy shift emphasizing quality over quantity, the economy continued to rebalance from investment-led to consumption-led growth. Economic policies including tax cuts and subsidies supported the economy, but the slowdown trend continued due to stagnant infrastructure investment and weaker consumer sentiment. Uncertainty over the outlook also increased due to intensifying trade friction with the United States. Emerging-market economies slowed moderately due to lower exports resulting from the slowdown in China and other factors, as well as falling resource prices.」

「Looking at the global economy during the nine-month cumulative period of the current fiscal year, the overall economy entered a slowdown trend due to weak economic conditions in Europe, China and elsewhere, despite the resilience of the US economy. The US economy remained on a recovery trend due to solid employment and income conditions, expanding personal consumption and capital investment, and the effects of tax cuts, despite declines in the stock market and other factors. The European economy slowed moderately due to slowing exports and weak domestic demand. Uncertainty over the outlook increased due in part to difficulties in negotiations over the United Kingdom’s withdrawal from the EU. In China, under a growth strategy shift emphasizing quality over quantity, the economy continued to rebalance from investment-led to consumption-led growth. Government policies including tax cuts supported the economy, but the slowdown trend continued due to stagnant infrastructure investment and weaker consumer sentiment resulting from trade friction. Uncertainty over the outlook also increased due to intensifying trade friction with the United States. Emerging-market economies slowed moderately due to lower exports resulting from higher US interest rates and trade friction, as well as falling resource prices.」

「Looking at the global economy during the six-month cumulative period of the current fiscal year, uncertainty over the outlook persisted due to intensifying trade friction resulting from the United States’ protectionist trade policies and currency depreciation in some emerging markets, but the US and European economies remained firm, emerging-market economies continued to improve, and the overall economy remained on a recovery trend. In China, as the economy was rebalanced from investment-led to consumption-led growth under a strategy shift emphasizing quality over quantity, domestic demand based on the corporate and household sectors remained firm, but infrastructure investment stagnated and the economy slowed moderately. In addition, uncertainty over the economic outlook increased due to intensifying trade friction with the United States. Emerging-market economies continued to grow steadily, supported by improved market conditions due in part to the recovery in resource prices, as well as low inflation and low interest rates, despite concerns over currency depreciation in Turkey, Argentina and elsewhere.」

「Looking at the global economy during the three-month cumulative period of the current fiscal year, uncertainty over the outlook persisted due in part to the effects of global trade friction resulting from the United States’ protectionist trade policies, but the US and European economies remained firm, emerging-market economies continued to improve, and the overall economy entered a recovery trend. In China, as the economy was rebalanced from investment-led to consumption-led growth under a strategy shift emphasizing quality over quantity, domestic demand expanded and remained firm on the basis of favorable business and household conditions. Emerging-market economies continued to grow steadily, supported by improved market conditions due in part to the recovery in resource prices, as well as low inflation and low interest rates.」

「Despite uncertainty over the outlook due to the United States’ protectionist trade policies, the strengthening of the Xi Jinping administration in China and the fluid situation in North Korea, the US and European economies remained firm, emerging-market economies continued to improve, and the overall economy entered a recovery trend. In China, domestic demand remained firm, supported by government policies and favorable business and household sentiment, but growth continued to slow moderately due to adjustments for corporate debt and excess production capacity. Emerging-market economies entered a stable growth path, supported by improved sentiment due in part to the recovery in resource prices, as well as low inflation and low interest rates.」

「Looking at the global economy during the nine-month cumulative period of the current fiscal year, the US and European economies remained firm, while the moderate recovery in emerging-market economies continued, resulting in an overall recovery trend. In China, solid domestic demand, supported by government policies including public investment, provided a floor for the economy, but private investment and production slowed due to adjustments for corporate debt and excess production capacity, and the economy remained at a standstill. In emerging markets, sentiment improved due in part to the recovery in resource prices, and the moderate recovery continued.」

「Looking at the global economy during the three-month cumulative period of the current fiscal year, the US and European economies remained firm, while emerging-market economies recovered moderately, and the overall recovery trend continued. In China, solid personal consumption, supported by government policies including active fiscal measures, provided a floor for the economy, but adjustments for corporate debt and excess production capacity remained a burden, and the economy continued to be at a standstill. In emerging markets, sentiment improved due in part to the recovery in resource prices, and the economies recovered moderately.」

「Looking at the global economy during the current fiscal year, the US and European economies remained firm, while the slowdown in emerging-market growth came to a halt, resulting in an overall recovery trend. In China, personal consumption of housing, automobiles and other goods, supported by government policies, provided a floor for the economy, but adjustments for corporate debt and excess production capacity remained a burden, and the economy continued to be at a standstill.」

「Looking at the global economy during the nine-month cumulative period of the current fiscal year, the US and European economies remained firm, while the slowdown in emerging-market growth came to a halt, pointing to signs of an overall recovery. In China, personal consumption of housing, automobiles and other goods, supported by government policies, and the strong services sector provided a floor for the economy, but the adjustment of excess production capacity remained a burden and stagnation continued. In emerging markets, the slowdown in growth came to a halt due in part to the bottoming out of resource prices.」

「In China, economic stagnation continued due to adjustments for excess production capacity and other factors despite economic stimulus measures and monetary easing. In emerging markets, the economic recovery was delayed as declining exports to China, falling commodity prices and weak resource prices persisted.」

「In China, growth slowed for an extended period as infrastructure and manufacturing investment failed to pick up despite economic stimulus measures and monetary easing. In emerging markets, the economic recovery was delayed by declining exports to China, falling commodity prices and continued weakness in resource prices.」

「The emerging-market economies remained weak due to the slowdown in the Chinese economy, the sharp fall in crude oil prices and the impact of higher interest rates in the United States, resulting in only modest overall growth.」