Declining Housing Starts and Weak Demand Driven by the Declining Birthrate and an Aging Population
First written in FY2016. 20 of 40 entries say "Worsened", first in FY2018-Q2. Latest entry: 2026-09-25.
Hokushin moved to the "Worse" side of this theme in 2018, 2 years before the typical company in this theme (2020).
The whole theme swung hardest in 2020: 12 of 17 companies on the "Worse" side.
2 other companies' latest entry also says "Mitigated".
- FY2026WorsenedAnnual report
「In addition to soaring home prices and higher mortgage rates, population decline and slower household growth are expected to keep the medium- to long-term outlook for housing starts challenging.」
The company indicated that challenging conditions for housing starts are expected to continue over the medium to long term, against a backdrop of higher home prices and mortgage rates, population decline and slower household growth. - FY2026-H1WorsenedAnnual report
「During the fiscal year, housing starts declined sharply by 19.4% year on year cumulatively from April through August. Starts of owner-occupied housing, which are closely related to our sales volume, also declined 18.1% year on year over the same cumulative period.」
Housing starts declined 19.4% year on year cumulatively, while owner-occupied housing, which has close ties to our business, declined 18.1%, indicating a sharp deterioration in sluggish housing demand. The risk has materialized in actual market data. - FY2025WorsenedAnnual report
「In the housing industry, which has close ties to our business, soaring material costs due to higher logistics costs, prices and labor costs pushed up home selling prices. In addition, mortgage rates were trending upward and sentiment toward home purchases remained weak. Although rush demand related to the April revision of the Building Standards Act led to an increase in March on a single-month basis, housing starts remained sluggish for the fiscal year as a whole.」
Sentiment toward home purchases weakened due to higher construction material, labor and logistics costs and an upward trend in mortgage rates. Although there was rush demand in March, housing starts remained sluggish for the year as a whole. - FY2025-H1MitigatedAnnual report
「Housing starts declined 0.8% year on year cumulatively from April through August. In particular, starts of owner-occupied housing, which are closely related to our sales volume, fell sharply by 5.7% year on year over the same cumulative period.」
Housing starts and owner-occupied housing continued to decline, but the declines narrowed from the 6.1% decline in total starts and 9.8% decline in owner-occupied housing reported for FY2024-Q2. The risk of sluggish demand was partially mitigated. - FY2024WorsenedAnnual report
「As a result, housing starts declined 7.0% year on year cumulatively from April through March. In particular, starts of owner-occupied housing, which are closely related to our sales, had declined year on year for 28 consecutive months, falling sharply by 11.5% year on year over the same cumulative period.」
The decline in housing starts continued throughout the fiscal year, with total starts down 7.0% and owner-occupied housing down 11.5%; the year-on-year decline in owner-occupied housing continued for 28 consecutive months. - FY2024-Q3WorsenedAnnual report
「As a result, housing starts declined 6.5% year on year cumulatively from April through November. In particular, starts of owner-occupied housing, which are closely related to our sales, had declined year on year for 24 consecutive months, falling sharply by 12.0% year on year over the same cumulative period.」
The decline in housing starts continued, with total starts down 6.5% and owner-occupied housing down 12.0%. The year-on-year decline in owner-occupied housing extended to 24 consecutive months, indicating increased risk of worsening sluggish housing demand. - FY2024-Q2WorsenedAnnual report
「In the housing industry, which has close ties to our business, persistently high material costs and rising wages pushed up home prices, while expectations of higher mortgage rates also depressed sentiment toward home purchases. As a result, housing starts declined 6.1% year on year cumulatively from April through August. In particular, starts of owner-occupied housing, which are closely related to our sales, had declined year on year for 21 consecutive months, falling sharply by 9.8% year on year over the same cumulative period.」
Housing starts declined 6.1% cumulatively from April through August, while owner-occupied housing declined 9.8%; the year-on-year decline continued for 21 consecutive months. - FY2024-Q1WorsenedAnnual report
「Housing starts declined 4.7% year on year cumulatively from April through May, affected by a decline in sentiment toward home purchases due to higher home prices resulting from soaring material costs and expectations of rising mortgage rates. In particular, starts of owner-occupied housing, which are closely related to our sales volume, fell sharply, declining 11.6% year on year over the same period.」
Housing starts declined 4.7% year on year cumulatively from April through May, while owner-occupied housing declined 11.6%, and housing demand remained sluggish. - FY2023WorsenedAnnual report
「Housing starts declined 0.6% year on year cumulatively from April through March. In particular, starts of owner-occupied housing, which are closely related to our sales volume, fell sharply, declining 11.8% year on year over the same period.」
Housing starts, which had increased in the previous year, turned to a decline in FY2023, with owner-occupied housing declining by 11.8%. - FY2023-Q3RestatedAnnual report
「In the housing industry, which has close ties to our business, housing starts declined 0.9% year on year cumulatively from April through November due to higher home prices resulting from soaring material costs and delays in the delivery of residential equipment, despite the extension of government subsidies, tax breaks and other incentives for home purchases and the continued low level of mortgage rates.」
While home-purchase support measures and low interest rates continued, the decline in housing starts persisted due to soaring material costs and delays in the delivery of residential equipment. - FY2023-Q2WorsenedAnnual report
「In the housing industry, which has close ties to our business, housing starts declined 1.0% year on year cumulatively from April through August, as they remained sluggish from May onward due to higher home prices resulting from soaring material costs and delays in the delivery of residential equipment, despite the extension of government subsidies, tax breaks and other incentives for home purchases and the continued low level of mortgage rates.」
While home-purchase support measures and low interest rates continued, housing starts declined 1.0% year on year cumulatively from April through August due to soaring material costs and delays in the delivery of residential equipment. - FY2023-Q1WorsenedAnnual report
「Housing starts remained sluggish due to shortages of wood-based materials, including plywood, and delays in the delivery of residential equipment, decreasing 0.8% year on year cumulatively from April through May.」
Housing starts, which had increased year on year in the previous fiscal year, turned to a 0.8% year-on-year decline cumulatively from April through May against a backdrop of shortages of wood-based materials and delays in the delivery of residential equipment. - FY2022MitigatedAnnual report
「In addition to the recovery in sales activities by housing-related companies as working styles changed during the COVID-19 pandemic and the spread of working from home, rush demand arose ahead of the expiration of the conventional mortgage tax deduction at the end of the previous year. As a result, housing starts increased 6.6% year on year cumulatively from April through March.」
Housing starts increased 6.6% year on year for the full fiscal year, recovering from the sluggish demand that had continued through the previous fiscal year. - FY2022-Q3MitigatedAnnual report
「Housing starts increased 7.5% year on year cumulatively from April through November, driven by rush demand ahead of the expiration of government subsidies, tax breaks and other incentives for home purchases, against a backdrop of low mortgage rates, as well as an increase in owner-occupied housing due in part to the recovery in sales activities by housing-related companies and the spread of working from home.」
In contrast to the decline in housing starts that continued through the previous fiscal year, housing starts increased 7.5% year on year cumulatively from April through November, driven in part by an increase in owner-occupied housing, further mitigating the risk of sluggish demand. - FY2022-Q2MitigatedAnnual report
「Housing starts increased 8.3% year on year cumulatively from April through August, due in part to an increase in owner-occupied housing amid the recovery in sales activities by housing-related companies and the spread of working from home.」
In contrast to the decline in housing starts that continued through the previous fiscal year, housing starts increased 8.3% year on year cumulatively from April through August, driven in part by an increase in owner-occupied housing. The risk of sluggish demand was partially mitigated. - FY2022-Q1MitigatedAnnual report
「Housing starts increased 8.5% year on year cumulatively from April through May, as owner-occupied housing increased amid the resumption of sales activities by housing-related companies and the spread of working from home.」
In contrast to the decline in housing starts that continued through the previous fiscal year, housing starts increased 8.5% year on year in the first quarter, driven by an increase in owner-occupied housing. - FY2021Housing starts continued to decline for the full fiscal year, down 8.1% year on yearAnnual report
「The environment surrounding the housing market remained sluggish, and new housing starts decreased 8.1% year on year on a cumulative basis from April through March.」
Housing starts continued to decline for the full fiscal year. The decline narrowed from 10.0% year on year in the cumulative third quarter to 8.1% for the full fiscal year. - FY2021-Q3Housing starts continued to decline, but the pace of decline slowedAnnual report
「Although housing starts were on a recovery trend following the resumption of sales activities by housing-related companies after the lifting of the state of emergency, supported by extensions of government subsidies and tax reductions and other incentives for home purchases and low mortgage rates, the environment surrounding the housing market remained sluggish due to the impact of the spread of COVID-19. Housing starts decreased 10.0% year on year on a cumulative basis from April through November.」
Although the housing market was described as being on a recovery trend, housing starts decreased 10.0% year on year on a cumulative basis from April through November, indicating continued weakness in housing demand. The decline narrowed from 11.6% year on year in the previous quarter. - FY2021-Q2Housing starts continued to decline, down 11.6% year on yearAnnual report
「New housing starts declined, particularly owner-occupied housing, decreasing 11.6% year on year on a cumulative basis from April through August.」
Housing starts continued to decline amid the suspension of sales activities and weakening consumer sentiment caused by the spread of COVID-19. - FY2021-Q1WorsenedAnnual report
「New housing starts declined, particularly owner-occupied housing, decreasing 12.6% year on year for April and May combined.」
The decline in housing starts widened to 12.6% year on year amid the suspension of sales activities and weakening consumer sentiment caused by the spread of COVID-19. - FY2020WorsenedAnnual report
「In the housing industry, which is closely related to the Company, low mortgage rates and various government measures to support home purchases were offset by the decline in front-loaded demand following the consumption tax increase and tighter lending by financial institutions for rental housing. As a result, new housing starts totaled 883 thousand units on a cumulative basis from April through March, down 7.3% year on year.」
The decline in housing starts became evident for the full fiscal year, totaling 883 thousand units, down 7.3% year on year. - FY2020-Q3WorsenedAnnual report
「Among new housing starts, owner-occupied and for-sale housing increased year on year due to government subsidies and tax reductions and other incentives for home purchases, low mortgage rates, and front-loaded demand ahead of the consumption tax increase. However, rental housing starts declined, resulting in a 6.3% year-on-year decrease in total housing starts on a cumulative basis from April through November.」
Owner-occupied and for-sale housing starts increased, while rental housing starts declined, resulting in a 6.3% year-on-year decline in total housing starts on a cumulative basis from April through November. - FY2020-Q2WorsenedAnnual report
「Owner-occupied housing starts increased year on year due to government subsidies and tax reductions and other incentives for home purchases, low mortgage rates, and front-loaded demand ahead of the consumption tax increase. However, rental and for-sale housing starts declined, resulting in a 5.1% year-on-year decrease in total housing starts on a cumulative basis from April through August.」
Owner-occupied housing starts increased, while rental and for-sale housing starts declined, resulting in a 5.1% year-on-year decrease in total housing starts for April through August combined. - FY2020-Q1WorsenedAnnual report
「Owner-occupied housing starts increased year on year due to government subsidies and tax reductions and other incentives for home purchases, low mortgage rates, and front-loaded demand ahead of the consumption tax increase. However, rental and for-sale housing starts declined, resulting in a 7.2% year-on-year decrease in total housing starts for April and May combined.」
Owner-occupied housing starts increased, while rental and for-sale housing starts declined, resulting in a 7.2% year-on-year decrease in total housing starts for April and May combined. - FY2019RestatedAnnual report
「From a medium- to long-term perspective, the domestic housing market is expected to contract due to the effects of the declining birthrate and aging population, among other factors.」
While housing starts are expected to remain firm in the near term due to low mortgage rates, housing support measures, and front-loaded demand ahead of the consumption tax increase, the risk of a medium- to long-term contraction in the market was reconfirmed. - FY2019-Q3RestatedAnnual report
「In the housing industry, which is closely related to the Company, for-sale housing remained firm, supported by government subsidies and tax reductions and other incentives for home purchases and low mortgage rates. However, due to a decline in rental housing, new housing starts decreased 0.8% year on year on a cumulative basis from April through November.」
For-sale housing remained firm, while a decline in rental housing caused new housing starts to decrease 0.8% year on year on a cumulative basis, indicating continued weakness in housing demand. - FY2019-Q2WorsenedAnnual report
「For-sale housing remained firm, supported by government subsidies and tax reductions and other incentives for home purchases and low mortgage rates. However, due to a decline in rental housing, which had performed well in the previous fiscal year, new housing starts decreased 1.0% year on year on a cumulative basis from April through August.」
For-sale housing remained firm, while a decline in rental housing caused new housing starts to decrease 1.0% year on year on a cumulative basis, indicating continued weakness in housing demand. - FY2019-Q1MaterialisedAnnual report
「Inventory adjustments were carried out by customers due to the decline in new housing starts from January through March, and sales volumes of domestic MDF products for the core building materials market decreased.」
The disclosure stated that the decline in new housing starts materialized in the form of inventory adjustments by customers and lower sales volumes of domestic MDF for building materials. - FY2018-Q3WorsenedAnnual report
「In the housing industry, which is closely related to the Company, conditions remained relatively firm, particularly for for-sale housing, supported by government subsidies and tax reductions and other incentives for home purchases, as well as low mortgage rates. However, due to declines in owner-occupied and rental housing, new housing starts declined for 5 consecutive months year on year, falling 1.2% year on year on a cumulative basis from April through November.」
For-sale housing remained relatively firm, while declines in owner-occupied and rental housing resulted in a 5-consecutive-month decline in new housing starts, with the cumulative decline widening to 1.2%. - FY2018-Q2WorsenedAnnual report
「In the housing industry, which is closely related to the Company, new housing starts remained relatively firm, particularly for for-sale housing, supported by government subsidies and tax reductions and other incentives for home purchases, as well as low mortgage rates. However, owner-occupied and rental housing starts declined for 3 consecutive months year on year, resulting in a 0.2% year-on-year decline on a cumulative basis from April through August.」
For-sale housing remained firm, while new owner-occupied and rental housing starts declined for 3 consecutive months and decreased year on year on a cumulative basis. - FY2018-Q1RestatedAnnual report
「In the housing industry, which is closely related to the Company, new housing starts remained firm, particularly for rental housing, supported by government subsidies and tax reductions and other incentives for home purchases, as well as low mortgage rates. Cumulative housing starts in April and May increased 0.8% year on year.」
Housing starts were described as firm and higher year on year in the near term, while no material changes were reported in the risk of a contraction in the housing market over the medium to long term. - FY2017RestatedAnnual report
「From a medium- to long-term perspective, the domestic housing market is expected to contract due to the effects of the declining birthrate and aging population, among other factors.」
While housing starts remain firm in the near term, the disclosure reconfirmed the risk of housing market contraction over the medium to long term due to the declining birthrate and aging population. - FY2017-Q3RestatedAnnual report
「During the cumulative third quarter, there were no material changes in matters concerning the business and financial conditions described in this quarterly securities report that could have a material impact on investors' decisions, nor in the risks associated with the business and other matters described in the securities report for the previous fiscal year.」
The disclosure stated that there were no material changes in the existing business and other risks, including declining housing demand and the declining birthrate and aging population. - FY2017-Q2RestatedAnnual report
「During the cumulative second quarter, there were no material changes in matters concerning the business and financial conditions described in this quarterly securities report that could have a material impact on investors' decisions, nor in the risks associated with the business and other matters described in the securities report for the previous fiscal year.」
The disclosure stated that there were no material changes in the existing business and other risks, including housing demand. - FY2016First statedAnnual report
「Housing starts, which have the greatest impact on the Company, have remained firm after turning upward from the decline in demand following the front-loading of purchases ahead of the consumption tax increase, supported by historically low mortgage rates and government measures to support home purchases. However, there are downside risks, including subdued economic growth and declining housing affordability due to rising land prices and construction material costs. Over the medium to long term, housing starts are expected to remain weak due to the effects of the declining birthrate and aging population, among other factors.」
The disclosure noted that housing starts recovered during the period, while demand could remain weak over the medium to long term.