Can the forecast for a profitable first half be substantiated by actual results?

The revision to the first-half forecast reported on 25 September 2026 raised revenue from the previous forecast of ¥5,065 million to ¥5,400 million, and changed the operating result from a forecast loss of ¥100 million to a forecast profit of ¥170 million. Ordinary profit is expected to turn from a forecast loss of ¥131 million to a profit of ¥170 million, while net profit is expected to turn from a forecast loss of ¥90 million to a profit of ¥110 million. Since the previous-year first half recorded an operating loss of ¥132 million, an ordinary loss of ¥131 million and a net loss of ¥90 million, the next results need to confirm not merely a narrower loss but an actual return to profitability at all three profit levels.

First-quarter revenue was ¥2,799 million, operating profit was ¥40 million, ordinary profit was ¥37 million and net profit was ¥24 million. Simply calculating the difference from the revised first-half forecast means that the second quarter alone needs to deliver revenue of ¥2,601 million, operating profit of ¥130 million, ordinary profit of ¥133 million and net profit of ¥86 million. The first-quarter operating margin was approximately 1.4%, so the second quarter will require not only sufficient revenue but also a greater improvement in profitability. It is therefore necessary to distinguish whether the upward revision reflects expanding underlying demand or progress in price revisions.

The full-year forecast as of the first quarter is revenue of ¥11,400 million, operating profit of ¥210 million, ordinary profit of ¥190 million and net profit of ¥130 million. Comparing the revised first-half forecast simply with the full-year forecast implies that 47.4% of revenue, 81.0% of operating profit, 89.5% of ordinary profit and 84.6% of net profit are expected to be generated in the first half. The plan does not assume that profit will be concentrated in the second half, so if first-half results fall below forecast, the second-half profit required to meet the full-year plan will increase sharply.

The first quarter showed no special profit or special loss, and the return to profitability was not dependent on special items, at least based on the disclosures. Accordingly, the next results should be checked to determine whether first-half profitability arose at the operating level or whether special items or tax effects boosted net profit alone. The sustainability of the turnaround can be assessed by also checking whether the full-year forecast is maintained or revised in light of first-half results, the difference between operating and ordinary profit, and the tax burden on net profit.