Risk of Declining Housing Starts Due to Population Decline and Low Birth Rate
First written in FY2016. 19 of 40 entries say "Worsened", first in FY2017-Q2. Latest entry: FY2027-H1.
Tokyo Board Industries moved to the "Worse" side of this theme in 2020, the same year as the typical company in this theme.
The whole theme swung hardest in 2020: 12 of 17 companies on the "Worse" side.
2 other companies' latest entry also says "Mitigated".
- FY2027-H1MitigatedAnnual report
「In the housing market, where our Group conducts its core business, new housing starts from March through August 2026 increased 2.9% year on year for owner-occupied housing, 3.7% for rental housing and 5.6% for subdivision housing, resulting in a 3.8% year-on-year increase overall. Although there are signs of a modest recovery, starts remain at low levels and challenging operating conditions continue.」
Whereas the previous disclosure reported a 10.9% year-on-year decline in overall new housing starts, this time overall starts increased 3.8%, with increases across all categories, namely owner-occupied, rental and subdivision housing. However, starts remain at low levels, and challenging housing market conditions continue. - 2026-07-13MitigatedOccurring Fact
「また、当社グループが事業の主体を置く住宅市場におきましては、2026年３～５月の新築着工数は、持家が前年同期比0.3％の増加、貸家が前年同期比5.1％の減少、分譲住宅が前年同期比0.2％の増加、全体では前年同期比2.8％の減少と、やや持ち直しの動きは見られたものの経営環境は総じて厳しい状況で推移いたしました。」
住宅着工数は全体で前年同期比2.8％減と依然減少しているが、持家・分譲住宅には増加がみられ、前期までの減少幅と比べて住宅市場の悪化はやや弱まっている。 - FY2026WorsenedAnnual report
「New housing starts from April 2025 through February 2026 declined 10.9% year on year for owner-occupied housing, 10.5% for rental housing and 11.6% for subdivision housing, resulting in a 10.9% year-on-year decline overall, and the operating environment remained broadly challenging.」
New housing starts declined across all categories, namely owner-occupied, rental and subdivision housing, with overall starts down 10.9% year on year. The decline in the housing market is actually occurring, accompanied by specific figures. - FY2026-H1WorsenedAnnual report
「New housing starts from April through September 2025 declined 16.0% year on year for owner-occupied housing, 17.0% for rental housing and 19.8% for subdivision housing, resulting in a 17.4% year-on-year decline overall, and challenging operating conditions continue.」
New housing starts declined across all categories, namely owner-occupied, rental and subdivision housing, with the overall decline reaching 17.4% year on year. The deterioration in the housing market is actually occurring, accompanied by specific figures. - FY2025-H1MitigatedAnnual report
「In the housing market, where our Group conducts its core business, new housing starts from April through September 2024 declined 4.9% year on year for owner-occupied housing, increased 2.7% for rental housing and declined 2.7% for subdivision housing, resulting in a 0.8% year-on-year decline overall, and challenging operating conditions continue.」
Overall new housing starts declined 0.8% year on year. Although owner-occupied and subdivision housing starts declined, the extent of the decline narrowed compared with the 7.0% year-on-year decline overall in the previous fiscal year and the decline in the most recent quarter. The housing market is still considered challenging. - FY2024WorsenedAnnual report
「In the housing market, where our Group conducts its core business, new housing starts from April 2023 through March 2024 declined 11.5% year on year for owner-occupied housing, 2.0% for rental housing and 9.4% for subdivision housing, resulting in a 7.0% year-on-year decline overall, and the operating environment remained broadly challenging.」
All categories, namely owner-occupied, rental and subdivision housing, declined, and overall new housing starts from April 2023 through March 2024 declined 7.0% year on year. Challenging housing market conditions continue, accompanied by specific figures. - FY2024-Q3MitigatedAnnual report
「In the housing market, where our Group conducts its core business, new housing starts from October through December 2023 declined 16.1% year on year for owner-occupied housing, 3.2% for rental housing and 0.3% for subdivision housing, resulting in a 6.2% year-on-year decline overall, and the operating environment remained broadly challenging.」
Housing starts declined across all categories, but the overall decline narrowed from 7.6% year on year in the previous quarter to 6.2%. The housing market is still considered challenging. - FY2024-Q2WorsenedAnnual report
「In the housing market, where our Group conducts its core business, new housing starts from July through September 2023 declined 8.6% year on year for owner-occupied housing, 2.5% for rental housing and 13.5% for subdivision housing, resulting in a 7.6% year-on-year decline overall, and the operating environment remained broadly challenging.」
New housing starts from July through September 2023 declined across all categories, namely owner-occupied, rental and subdivision housing, with overall starts down 7.6% year on year. Challenging housing market conditions continue, accompanied by specific figures. - FY2024-Q1WorsenedAnnual report
「In the housing market, where our Group conducts its core business, new housing starts from April through June 2023 declined 11.9% year on year for owner-occupied housing, increased 2.0% for rental housing and declined 6.6% for subdivision housing, resulting in a 4.7% year-on-year decline overall, and the operating environment remained broadly challenging.」
Overall new housing starts declined 4.7% year on year, and owner-occupied and subdivision housing starts also declined. The decline widened from the 0.6% year-on-year decline overall in the previous fiscal year, indicating worsening housing market risk. The risk has been quantified and is actually occurring in the form of a decline. - FY2023WorsenedAnnual report
「New housing starts from April 2022 through March 2023 declined 11.8% year on year for owner-occupied housing, increased 5.0% for rental housing and 4.5% for subdivision housing, and declined 0.6% overall. Although some signs of improvement were visible, the operating environment remained unstable due to factors including higher raw material costs and a chronic labor shortage.」
Although rental and subdivision housing starts increased, overall new housing starts declined 0.6% year on year, turning down from the 6.6% year-on-year increase in the previous fiscal year. The long-term risk of declining housing starts continues. - FY2023-Q3WorsenedAnnual report
「In the housing market, where our Group conducts its core business, new housing starts from October through December 2022 declined 15.7% year on year for owner-occupied housing, increased 8.4% for rental housing and 1.8% for subdivision housing, and declined 1.6% overall. Although new investment, including decarbonization and environmental initiatives, showed signs of increasing, the operating environment remained broadly challenging.」
Overall new housing starts declined 1.6% year on year, turning down from the 0.0% year-on-year decline in the previous quarter. The 15.7% decline in owner-occupied housing was also substantial, and challenging conditions in the housing market continue. - FY2023-Q2MitigatedAnnual report
「New housing starts from July through September 2022 declined 12.9% year on year for owner-occupied housing, increased 6.1% for rental housing and 7.1% for subdivision housing, and declined 0.0% overall, indicating firm conditions, but had not returned to pre-pandemic levels, and the operating environment remained broadly challenging.」
Overall new housing starts declined 0.0% year on year, bottoming out from the 1.3% year-on-year decline in the previous quarter, and were described as firm. However, starts had not returned to pre-pandemic levels, and risks remain. - FY2023-Q1WorsenedAnnual report
「In the housing market, where our Group conducts its core business, new housing starts from April through June 2022 declined 8.9% year on year for owner-occupied housing, increased 2.5% for rental housing and 2.7% for subdivision housing, and declined 1.3% overall. Although signs of improvement had begun to emerge, with starts exceeding the previous year's level for 14 consecutive months through April, they turned negative year on year from May onward, and the operating environment remained broadly challenging despite starts not having reached pre-pandemic levels.」
After new housing starts increased 6.6% year on year in the previous fiscal year, overall starts declined 1.3% year on year in the current quarter and turned negative year on year from May onward. They had not returned to pre-pandemic levels. - FY2022MitigatedAnnual report
「New housing starts in fiscal 2021 totaled 865,000 units, up 6.6% year on year, and although signs of improvement had begun to emerge, starts had not returned to pre-pandemic levels.」
New housing starts totaled 865,000 units, up 6.6% year on year, representing an improvement from the downward trend through the previous fiscal year. However, starts had not returned to pre-pandemic levels, and the long-term risks of population decline and a low birthrate remain. - FY2022-Q3RestatedAnnual report
「In the housing market, where our Group conducts its core business, new housing starts in December 2021 declined 0.4% year on year for owner-occupied housing, increased 3.3% for rental housing and 13.1% for subdivision housing, and increased 4.2% overall. Although signs of improvement had begun to emerge, starts had not returned to the level of the year before last, before the spread of COVID-19, and the operating environment remained broadly challenging.」
Overall new housing starts increased 4.2% year on year, and rental and subdivision housing starts also increased, but owner-occupied housing starts declined and starts had not returned to pre-pandemic levels. The existing view of challenging housing market conditions remains in place. - FY2022-Q2RestatedAnnual report
「New housing starts in September 2021 increased 14.9% year on year for owner-occupied housing and 12.8% for rental housing, while subdivision housing declined 14.9% and overall starts increased 4.3% year on year. Although signs of improvement had begun to emerge, starts had not returned to the level of the year before last, before the spread of COVID-19, and the operating environment remained broadly challenging.」
Overall new housing starts increased 4.3% year on year, representing some improvement, but subdivision housing starts declined and had not returned to pre-pandemic levels, so the long-term challenging conditions in the housing market continue. - FY2022-Q1MitigatedAnnual report
「In the housing market, where our Group conducts its core business, new housing starts in June 2021 increased 10.6% year on year for owner-occupied housing and 11.8% for rental housing, while subdivision housing declined 1.5% and overall starts increased 7.3% year on year. Although signs of improvement had begun to emerge, starts had not returned to the level of the year before last, before the spread of COVID-19, and the operating environment remained broadly challenging.」
Overall new housing starts increased 7.3% year on year due to increases in owner-occupied and rental housing, representing some improvement from the downward trend through the previous fiscal year. Subdivision housing starts declined, however, and had not returned to pre-pandemic levels. - FY2021WorsenedAnnual report
「In the housing market, where our Group conducts its core business, new housing starts in fiscal 2020 totaled 812,000 units, down 8.1% year on year, with declines across all categories, including detached housing and condominiums, and conditions remain challenging. In addition, measures to prevent the spread of COVID-19 have forced a sharp economic slowdown, and new housing starts are expected to decline substantially further.」
New housing starts in fiscal 2020 totaled 812,000 units, down 8.1% year on year, with declines across all categories, including detached housing and condominiums. An additional decline due to COVID-19 is also expected, and the deterioration in housing market risk continues. - FY2021-Q3WorsenedAnnual report
「In the housing market, where our Group conducts its core business, new housing starts in December 2020 increased 2.4% year on year for owner-occupied housing, showing a recovery, but declined 11.5% for rental housing for the 28th consecutive month and 18.4% for subdivision housing for the 14th consecutive month. Overall starts declined 9.0% year on year for the 18th consecutive month, and the operating environment remained challenging.」
Although owner-occupied housing starts increased year on year, rental, subdivision and overall starts declined, with overall starts down 9.0% year on year for the 18th consecutive month. The deterioration in the housing market has continued from the previous quarter. - FY2021-Q2WorsenedAnnual report
「New housing starts in September 2020 declined 7.0% year on year for owner-occupied housing, marking the 14th consecutive monthly decline, 14.8% for rental housing, marking the 25th consecutive monthly decline, and 7.8% for subdivision housing, marking the 11th consecutive monthly decline, and the operating environment remained broadly challenging.」
All categories, namely owner-occupied, rental and subdivision housing, declined year on year, and the number of consecutive monthly declines increased from the previous disclosure. The risk of declining housing starts continues and has worsened, accompanied by specific figures. - FY2021-Q1WorsenedAnnual report
「In the housing market, where our Group conducts its core business, new housing starts in June 2020 declined 16.7% year on year for owner-occupied housing, marking the 11th consecutive monthly decline, 13.0% for rental housing, marking the 22nd consecutive monthly decline, and 7.7% for subdivision housing, marking the 12th consecutive monthly decline, and the operating environment remained broadly challenging.」
All categories, namely owner-occupied, rental and subdivision housing, declined year on year, with the consecutive monthly declines also reported. The deterioration in the housing market continues to be reflected in specific figures. - FY2020WorsenedAnnual report
「In the housing market, where our Group conducts its core business, new housing starts in fiscal 2019 totaled 883,000 units, or 92.7% of the previous year's level, partly due to the consumption tax increase, with declines across all categories, including detached housing and condominiums, and conditions remain challenging. In addition, measures to prevent the spread of COVID-19 have forced a sharp economic slowdown, and new housing starts are expected to decline substantially further.」
New housing starts declined to 883,000 units, or 92.7% of the previous year's level, with declines across all categories, including detached housing and condominiums. An additional decline due to the impact of COVID-19 is also expected. - FY2020-Q3WorsenedAnnual report
「In the housing construction industry, in which our Group operates, new housing starts in December, included in the cumulative third-quarter consolidated period, declined 10.3% year on year for rental housing, marking the 16th consecutive monthly decline, and declined 8.7% for owner-occupied housing, marking the 5th consecutive monthly decline. Overall starts declined 12.7% year on year for the 5th consecutive month, and the operating environment remained challenging.」
Overall housing starts declined 12.7% year on year for the 5th consecutive month, with the decline widening from the 7.1% year-on-year decline overall in the previous quarter. - FY2020-Q2RestatedAnnual report
「In August of the cumulative second-quarter consolidated period, rental housing starts declined 17.5% year on year, while condominium and detached housing starts both increased year on year, resulting in a 7.1% year-on-year decline overall. However, as starts continue to alternate between increases and decreases, it remains necessary to closely monitor developments going forward.」
Housing starts declined 7.1% year on year overall, but the existing risk assessment of monitoring developments remains in place because starts continue to fluctuate. The decline in housing starts actually occurred during the period in question. - FY2020-Q1WorsenedAnnual report
「In May of the cumulative first-quarter consolidated period, new housing starts declined 8.7% year on year overall because rental, condominium and detached housing starts all declined year on year.」
Although the previous fiscal year was described as having seen a recovery in housing starts, rental, condominium and detached housing starts all declined in May of the current quarter, resulting in an 8.7% year-on-year decline overall. - FY2019RestatedAnnual report
「In view of Japan's declining total population and low birth rate, we believe that a substantial increase in new housing starts is unlikely. In preparation for a further decline in new housing starts, we are working to establish a structure capable of generating profits.」
Although the current fiscal year's housing starts and condominium starts were described as having recovered from the previous fiscal year, the view that a substantial long-term increase in starts is unlikely against the backdrop of population decline and a low birthrate, as well as the policy of establishing a structure capable of generating profits, remain unchanged. - FY2019-Q3RestatedAnnual report
「New housing starts for the cumulative third-quarter consolidated period were broadly in line with the previous year, with owner-occupied housing starts increasing year on year for 2 consecutive months and subdivision housing starts increasing for 4 consecutive months through November 2018. However, although total floor area increased in October and November, indicating signs of recovery, it declined cumulatively from April through November 2018, so it remains necessary to closely monitor developments going forward.」
Although housing starts increased in some categories, cumulative total floor area declined, and the existing risk assessment of continuing to monitor the housing market remains in place. - FY2019-Q2RestatedAnnual report
「In August of the cumulative second-quarter consolidated period, new housing starts increased in owner-occupied, rental and subdivision housing, resulting in a 1.6% year-on-year increase overall. However, as starts continue to alternate between increases and decreases, it remains necessary to closely monitor developments going forward.」
Housing starts in August increased 1.6% year on year, but the existing risk assessment of closely monitoring housing market developments remains in place because starts continue to alternate between increases and decreases. - FY2019-Q1MitigatedAnnual report
「In May of the cumulative first-quarter consolidated period, new housing starts declined for owner-occupied and rental housing, but both condominium and detached housing starts increased within subdivision housing, resulting in a 1.3% year-on-year increase overall. In particular, the total floor area of new housing starts increased for the first time in 11 months.」
Previous periods described declines in housing starts and challenging housing market conditions, whereas this quarter reported a 1.3% year-on-year increase in new housing starts in May and the first increase in housing-start floor area in 11 months. It did not indicate that the long-term population decline risk had disappeared. - FY2018WorsenedAnnual report
「New housing starts in fiscal 2017 declined for the first time in 3 years. Detached housing starts increased, but condominium starts declined for the second consecutive year, resulting in an overall decline in subdivision housing, and conditions remain challenging.」
Housing starts declined for the first time in 3 years, and condominium starts declined for the second consecutive year, indicating a concrete deterioration in housing market risk. - FY2018-Q3RestatedAnnual report
「New housing starts from January to December of Heisei 29, including the cumulative third-quarter consolidated period, were broadly in line with the previous year, but declined year on year for 5 consecutive months from July onward. Condominium starts, meanwhile, increased year on year for 3 consecutive months from June through August, declined for 2 consecutive months in September and October, and then increased 8.7% in November, so it remains necessary to closely monitor developments going forward.」
Annual new housing starts were described as broadly in line with the previous year, while starts declined for 5 consecutive months from July onward. Condominium starts also continued to fluctuate, and the existing risk assessment of closely monitoring housing market developments remains in place. - FY2018-Q2RestatedAnnual report
「During the cumulative second-quarter consolidated period, condominium starts increased year on year for 3 consecutive months through August, while detached housing starts temporarily declined in July, resulting in an overall decline, and it remains necessary to closely monitor developments going forward.」
Although condominium starts increased, overall starts declined because of a decrease in detached housing starts, and the Company continues to indicate that it will closely monitor housing market developments. No material change is considered to have occurred in the long-term risk of declining housing starts. - FY2018-Q1RestatedAnnual report
「Although detached housing starts increased year on year for the 19th consecutive month, condominium starts declined in May, reversing the increase in April, and it remains necessary to closely monitor developments going forward.」
While detached housing starts continue to increase, condominium starts have turned down, and the Company continues to indicate that it will closely monitor housing market developments. No change in the long-term risk of declining housing starts is described. - FY2017RestatedAnnual report
「Given expectations of a prolonged population decline in Japan due to the declining birthrate and aging population, as well as a decline in housing starts caused by a chronic shortage of skilled tradespeople, we believe that the operating environment for our Group remains difficult to view optimistically.」
The long-term outlook for declining housing starts due to population decline, the declining birthrate and population aging continues to be indicated. - FY2017-Q3RestatedAnnual report
「In the housing market, where our Group conducts its core business, new housing starts declined overall for subdivision housing because condominium starts fell despite an increase in detached housing starts, and conditions remain challenging.」
Although declines in condominiums and subdivision housing overall and challenging housing market conditions continue to be reported, there has been no new change in the nature of the risk. - FY2017-Q2WorsenedAnnual report
「In the housing market, where our Group conducts its core business, new housing starts declined overall for subdivision housing because condominium starts fell despite an increase in detached housing starts, and conditions remain challenging.」
The previous quarter described a positive trend and firm demand, whereas this time it describes declines in condominiums and subdivision housing overall and challenging market conditions, indicating that housing market risk has worsened. - FY2017-Q1RestatedAnnual report
「New housing starts during the cumulative first quarter under review maintained a positive trend year on year, and construction demand remained firm, but conditions continued to be difficult owing to the persistent shortage of construction workers and the ongoing increases in construction materials and labor costs.」
Although housing starts and construction demand during the quarter are described as firm, the company concludes that there were no significant changes in the risks related to the business and other matters from the preceding fiscal year, and indicates no change in the long-term risks arising from population decline and other factors. - FY2016First statedAnnual report
「In view of Japan's declining total population and low birth rate, we believe that a substantial increase in new housing starts is unlikely. In preparation for a further decline in new housing starts, we are working to establish a structure capable of generating profits.」
The company recognizes that a substantial increase in housing starts is unlikely against the backdrop of population decline and a low birth rate. The text also states that housing starts fell to 780,000 units in 2009 and that condominium construction was postponed.