Shrinking housing demand due to declining birth rates, population ageing and population decline
First written in FY2016. 16 of 34 entries say "Worsened", first in FY2019-Q2. Latest entry: 2026-08-10.
Kimura moved to the "Worse" side of this theme in 2020, the same year as the typical company in this theme.
The whole theme swung hardest in 2020: 13 of 18 companies on the "Worse" side.
11 other companies' latest entry also says "Restated".
- 2026-08-10RestatedResults
「人口減少の影響で新設住宅着工戸数が減少傾向にあり、厳しい経営環境が見込まれています。」
北海道の新設持家着工は前年同期比で増加したが、一時的な反動増と説明し、人口減少による住宅着工減少傾向と厳しい環境認識を継続している。 - FY2026WorsenedAnnual report
「Cumulative housing starts through March in fiscal 2025 totaled 711,171 units nationwide, down 12.8% year on year, and 22,182 units in Hokkaido, our core market, down 26.6% year on year, remaining at low levels. Owner-occupied housing starts, which have a significant impact on our results, also remained at low levels, totaling 195,111 units nationwide, down 12.5% year on year, and 6,960 units in Hokkaido, down 17.2% year on year.」
Housing starts remained at low levels nationwide and in Hokkaido, with total housing starts in Hokkaido down 26.6% year on year and owner-occupied housing starts down 17.2%. Following the 22.7% decline in Hokkaido owner-occupied housing starts in the first half of the previous fiscal year, the full-year figures demonstrate the severity of the contraction in housing demand. - 2026-05-11WorsenedResults
「2025年度３月累計の全国における新設住宅着工戸数は711,171戸（前年同月比12.8％減）、当社の主力市場である北海道では22,182戸（同26.6％減）と依然低水準で推移しております。その中で当社の業績に大きく影響を及ぼす持家につきましても、全国で195,111戸（前年同月比12.5％減）、北海道で6,960戸（同17.2％減）と依然低水準で推移しております。」
全国・北海道の新設住宅着工および持家着工の減少率を具体的に示し、住宅需要の低迷を継続している。 - FY2026-H1WorsenedAnnual report
「From April through September, new owner-occupied housing starts in Hokkaido totaled 3,458 units, down 22.7% year on year, substantially below the previous year's level, and difficult conditions are expected to continue.」
New owner-occupied housing starts in Hokkaido fell 22.7% year on year, indicating that the contraction in housing demand had worsened from the 10.2% decline in the first half of the previous fiscal year. - FY2025Housing starts turned higher year on year but remained at a low levelAnnual report
「New housing starts turned positive year on year due to front-loaded demand ahead of the reduction in the scope of Special Exception No. 4, but remained at a low level. Owner-occupied housing starts likewise turned positive year on year but remained at a low level.」
Housing starts and owner-occupied housing in both the country and Hokkaido turned higher than the previous year, but remained at low levels, and the report states that structural concerns over contracting housing demand remain. - FY2025-H1RestatedAnnual report
「Housing starts have continued to trend downward, with owner-occupied and total housing starts nationwide remaining below the previous year's levels. From April through September, new owner-occupied housing starts in Hokkaido totaled 4,447 units, down 10.2% year on year, below the previous year's level, and difficult conditions are expected to continue.」
The report continues to describe owner-occupied and total housing starts nationwide, as well as new owner-occupied housing starts in Hokkaido, as remaining below the previous year's levels. New owner-occupied housing starts in Hokkaido totaled 4,447 units, down 10.2% year on year. - FY2024WorsenedAnnual report
「Cumulative new housing starts through March in fiscal 2023 totaled 800,176 units nationwide, down 7.0% year on year, and 28,419 units in Hokkaido, our core market, down 3.9% year on year, remaining below the previous year's levels. Among these, owner-occupied homes, which have a significant impact on our results, totaled 219,622 units nationwide, down 11.5% year on year, and 8,157 units in Hokkaido, down 14.1% year on year, with both substantially below the previous year's levels.」
New housing starts fell below the previous year's levels nationwide and in Hokkaido, while owner-occupied homes, which have a significant impact on results, declined 11.5% nationwide and 14.1% in Hokkaido. - FY2024-Q3WorsenedAnnual report
「The housing market has remained on a downward trend in new housing starts due to the impact of surging material prices and a shortage of skilled workers. From April through December, new owner-occupied housing starts totaled 171,873 units nationwide, down 12.2% year on year, and 6,833 units in Hokkaido, down 15.0% year on year, with both below the previous year's levels. Difficult conditions are expected to continue.」
Surging material prices and a shortage of skilled workers are explicitly identified as factors behind the decline in housing starts, with new owner-occupied housing starts down 12.2% nationwide and 15.0% in Hokkaido. - FY2024-Q2RestatedAnnual report
「From April through September, new owner-occupied housing starts totaled 118,975 units nationwide, down 10.2% year on year, and 4,954 units in Hokkaido, down 10.8% year on year, both below the previous year's levels. Difficult conditions are expected to continue.」
New owner-occupied housing starts nationwide and in Hokkaido remained below the same period of the previous year, with contracting housing demand and difficult market conditions continuing. - FY2024-Q1WorsenedAnnual report
「Housing starts have continued to trend downward, with owner-occupied and total housing starts nationwide remaining below the previous year's levels. From April through June, new owner-occupied housing starts in Hokkaido totaled 2,506 units, down 12.0% year on year, below the previous year's level, and difficult conditions are expected to continue.」
The downward trend in housing starts continued, with new owner-occupied housing starts in Hokkaido down 12.0% year on year. - FY2023WorsenedAnnual report
「Cumulative new housing starts through March in fiscal 2022 totaled 860,828 units nationwide, down 0.6% year on year, and 29,576 units in Hokkaido, our core market, down 7.8% year on year, remaining below the previous year's levels. Among these, owner-occupied homes, which have a significant impact on our results, totaled 248,132 units nationwide, down 11.8% year on year, and 9,499 units in Hokkaido, down 18.2% year on year, with both substantially below the previous year's levels.」
Total housing starts fell below the previous year's levels nationwide and in Hokkaido, while the decline in owner-occupied homes, the core segment, widened to 11.8% nationwide and 18.2% in Hokkaido. - FY2023-Q3RestatedAnnual report
「The housing market has remained below the previous year's level nationwide for both owner-occupied homes and total housing starts, as higher construction costs caused by surging material prices have constrained housing starts. However, starts of rental properties and condominiums have improved. From April through December, new owner-occupied housing starts totaled 195,653 units nationwide, down 12.5% year on year, and 8,039 units in Hokkaido, down 19.9% year on year, with both substantially below the previous year's levels.」
New owner-occupied housing starts nationwide and in Hokkaido were substantially below the previous year's levels against a backdrop of surging material prices and higher construction costs. The report also notes improved starts of rental properties and condominiums. - FY2023-Q2WorsenedAnnual report
「In the industry, higher housing construction costs caused by surging material prices have weighed on sentiment toward purchasing homes, and owner-occupied housing starts have remained below the previous year's level. From April through September, new owner-occupied housing starts totaled 132,476 units nationwide, down 10.9% year on year, and 5,554 units in Hokkaido, down 21.8% year on year, both below the previous year's levels. Difficult conditions are expected to continue.」
Surging material prices and higher housing construction costs have constrained sentiment toward purchasing homes, with owner-occupied housing starts down 10.9% nationwide and 21.8% in Hokkaido. The decline was greater in Hokkaido, and the risk of contracting housing demand continues and has intensified, supported by quantified results. - FY2023-Q1WorsenedAnnual report
「Housing starts may have reached a turning point after the housing demand that increased during the pandemic, and nationwide starts of owner-occupied homes and total housing starts have remained below the previous year's levels. From April through June, new owner-occupied housing starts in Hokkaido totaled 2,847 units, down 19.3% year on year, a substantial decline from the previous year, and difficult conditions are expected to continue.」
The report indicates that housing demand boosted during the pandemic may have peaked, with nationwide owner-occupied and total housing starts, as well as new owner-occupied housing starts in Hokkaido, below the previous year's levels. Hokkaido was quantified at 19.3% below the same period of the previous year. - FY2022RestatedAnnual report
「Our Group operates primarily in Hokkaido, and approximately 90% of consolidated revenue currently comes from the region, indicating a high degree of dependence on it.」
While the report describes a recovery in housing demand, it continues to identify population decline and dependence on Hokkaido's distinctive economic conditions and construction demand as risks. - FY2022-Q3MitigatedAnnual report
「The housing market has remained above the previous year's level for owner-occupied, rental and condominium properties alike, partly reflecting the rebound from the previous year's downturn caused by the spread of COVID-19. From April through December, new owner-occupied housing starts totaled 223,645 units nationwide, up 11.2% year on year, and 10,032 units in Hokkaido, up 10.3% year on year, with both above the previous year's levels.」
The housing market rebounded from the previous year's pandemic-related downturn, with owner-occupied, rental and condominium properties all exceeding the previous year's levels. New owner-occupied housing starts were also quantified at 11.2% higher nationwide and 10.3% higher in Hokkaido, and the report indicates that the risk of contracting housing demand was temporarily easing. - FY2022-Q2MitigatedAnnual report
「The housing market has remained above the previous year's level for owner-occupied, rental and condominium properties alike, partly reflecting the rebound from the previous year's downturn caused by the spread of COVID-19.」
The report states that the housing market rebounded from the previous year's downturn caused by the pandemic, with owner-occupied, rental and condominium properties all exceeding the previous year's levels. - FY2022-Q1WorsenedAnnual report
「Housing starts for owner-occupied, rental and condominium properties have all remained above the previous year's levels, but there is concern that higher import-material prices and material shortages caused by the wood shock will weigh on housing starts going forward.」
Housing starts exceeded the previous year's level in the quarter, but higher import-material prices and material shortages caused by the wood shock have emerged as new concerns that could weigh on future housing starts. - FY2021WorsenedAnnual report
「Cumulative new housing starts through March 2021 totaled 812,164 units nationwide, down 8.1% year on year, and 31,772 units in Hokkaido, our core market, down 2.2% year on year, both below the previous year's levels.」
New housing starts nationwide and in Hokkaido remained below the previous year's levels, with the contraction in housing demand continuing alongside quantified results. - FY2021-Q3RestatedAnnual report
「The housing market has remained on a downward trend in housing starts as the pandemic has weakened investment sentiment and employment conditions and constrained income growth. From April through December, new owner-occupied housing starts totaled 201 thousand units nationwide, down 10.0% year on year, and 9 thousand units in Hokkaido, down 7.4% year on year, with both remaining below the previous year's levels.」
Housing starts continued to trend downward against a backdrop of pandemic-related deterioration in investment sentiment, employment conditions and income, while new owner-occupied housing starts nationwide and in Hokkaido remained below the same period of the previous year. - FY2021-Q2WorsenedAnnual report
「The housing market has remained below the previous year's level for owner-occupied, rental and condominium properties alike as market conditions weakened due to the spread of COVID-19. From April through September, new owner-occupied housing starts totaled 131,325 units nationwide, down 14.2% year on year, and 6,165 units in Hokkaido, down 10.9% year on year. Difficult conditions are expected to continue.」
The weakening of market conditions caused by the spread of COVID-19 materialized in all three categories, with each falling below the previous year's level. New owner-occupied housing starts were also quantified at 14.2% lower nationwide and 10.9% lower in Hokkaido. - FY2021-Q1WorsenedAnnual report
「Housing starts for owner-occupied, rental and condominium properties have all remained below the previous year's levels, and the difficult conditions are expected to continue.」
Housing starts for owner-occupied, rental and condominium properties all remained below the previous year's levels, making the contraction in housing demand increasingly apparent. quantified is true, materialized is true. - FY2020WorsenedAnnual report
「New housing starts continued to trend downward as financial institutions tightened their apartment-loan screening, falling below the previous year's level both nationwide and in Hokkaido, our core market. In fiscal 2020, construction delays and the cancellation of housing events occurred because of the spread of COVID-19, and residential investment is expected to fall short of expectations.」
The report describes continued weakness in housing starts, construction delays and the cancellation of housing events due to the spread of COVID-19, as well as an expected decline in residential investment. - FY2020-Q3RestatedAnnual report
「The housing market is on a downward trend, reflecting a decline in new rental housing starts against a backdrop of stricter apartment-loan screening by financial institutions, as well as the completion of the surge in condominium starts.」
The report continues to recognize a downward trend in housing demand due to declining new rental housing starts and the completion of the surge in condominium starts. - FY2020-Q1WorsenedAnnual report
「Housing starts for owner-occupied homes and orders have picked up ahead of the consumption tax rate increase, but rental and condominium housing starts have declined, leaving total housing starts below the previous year's level. Accordingly, new housing starts are expected to remain on a gradual downward trend.」
The report states that owner-occupied housing had picked up ahead of the consumption tax rate increase, while rental and condominium housing declined and total housing starts remained below the previous year's level. - FY2019Slight nationwide increase, decline in HokkaidoAnnual report
「New housing starts were slightly above the previous year's level nationwide, but below it in Hokkaido, our core market.」
The report states that housing starts nationwide were slightly above the previous year's level, while Hokkaido, our core market, remained below it. - FY2019-Q3Slight nationwide increase, continued decline in HokkaidoAnnual report
「The housing market has begun to decline, as housing starts for rental properties, which had driven residential investment, have weakened, compounded by higher construction costs. From April through December, new owner-occupied housing starts totaled 222 thousand units nationwide, up 0.5% year on year, and 9 thousand units in Hokkaido, down 0.7% year on year. Hokkaido has therefore remained below the previous year's level.」
The report continues to describe a decline in the housing market against a backdrop of weaker rental housing starts and higher construction costs. New owner-occupied housing starts turned slightly higher nationwide, while Hokkaido remained below the same period of the previous year. - FY2019-Q2WorsenedAnnual report
「The housing market has begun to decline as the surge in new housing starts driven by low interest rates and inheritance-tax planning measures has run its course, amid high construction costs. From April through September, new owner-occupied housing starts were 146 thousand units nationwide, down 1.2% year on year, and 6 thousand units in Hokkaido, down 3.1%, remaining below the previous year's levels.」
New owner-occupied housing starts were below the previous year's levels both nationwide and in Hokkaido, providing quantitative evidence of shrinking housing demand. - FY2019-Q1RestatedAnnual report
「Housing starts have temporarily recovered as starts of built-for-sale homes, both detached houses and condominiums, increased. This is viewed as a temporary movement resulting from the timing of construction starts coinciding among companies, and new housing starts are expected to decline gradually going forward due to condominium inventory adjustments and the fading effect of inheritance-tax planning measures.」
Although starts of built-for-sale homes temporarily recovered, new housing starts are expected to decline gradually going forward as condominium inventories are adjusted and the effects of inheritance-tax planning measures fade. - FY2018RestatedAnnual report
「The previously strong rental housing market has lost momentum, and housing starts have turned negative year on year. The built-for-sale housing market remains firm, but starts of condominium developments have entered an inventory adjustment phase, and housing starts are expected to decline gradually.」
The loss of momentum in the rental housing market, the adjustment in condominium starts and the expected gradual decline in housing starts continue to be described as conditions affecting housing demand. - FY2018-Q1RestatedAnnual report
「No new business or other risks arose during the three months ended 30 June. There were also no material changes to the business and other risks described in the securities report for the previous fiscal year.」
It is stated that there have been no significant changes to existing risks, including shrinking housing demand against a backdrop of declining birth rates, population ageing and population decline. - FY2017RestatedAnnual report
「New housing starts, which have a significant impact on the performance of our Group, are expected to decline in demand going forward due to declining birth rates, population ageing and population decline.」
The decline in demand for new housing starts against a backdrop of declining birth rates, population ageing and population decline continues to be described as a major business-environment risk. - FY2017-Q3RestatedAnnual report
「No new business risks arose during the nine-month period ended the third quarter of the current fiscal year. In addition, there were no significant changes to the business risks disclosed in the securities report for the previous fiscal year.」
It is stated that there have been no significant changes to the business and other risks described in the previous fiscal year, including the decline in new housing starts. - FY2016First statedAnnual report
「The decline in new housing starts is expected to continue, while personal consumption is not expected to grow significantly. Competition is also expected to intensify further, including among contractors and through market entry by companies from other industries.」
Against a backdrop of population decline, declining birth rates and population ageing, the decline in new housing starts is described as a major business-environment risk for the wholesale business.