Economic uncertainty due to the Trump administration and downside risks to the Chinese economy
First written in FY2017. 15 of 30 entries say "Worsened", first in FY2018-Q2. Latest entry: 2026-08-10.
The whole theme swung hardest in 2022: 104 of 134 companies on the "Worse" side.
- FY2026-H1WorsenedAnnual report
「During the interim consolidated accounting period under review, Japan's economy continued to show gradual improvement in employment and income conditions. However, uncertainty about the outlook remains due to the impact of the U.S. administration's tariff policies, geopolitical risks in Ukraine and the Middle East, and the prolonged rise in domestic prices.」
In addition to existing geopolitical risks and rising prices, it specifically identifies the impact of the U.S. administration's tariff policies, adding another source of uncertainty in the external environment. - FY2025RestatedAnnual report
「Uncertainty about the outlook remains due to soaring and persistently high raw material and energy prices resulting from heightened geopolitical risks, including the prolonged conflict in Ukraine and escalating tensions in the Middle East.」
It maintains uncertainty about the outlook for the global and domestic economies due to the situations in Ukraine and the Middle East and soaring raw material and energy prices. - FY2025-H1RestatedAnnual report
「Uncertainty about the outlook remains due to soaring raw material and energy prices and their negative impact on the global economy, amid global monetary tightening and heightened geopolitical risks.」
It maintains uncertainty about the outlook and the impact on the global economy of global monetary tightening, geopolitical risks and soaring raw material and energy prices. - FY2024-Q3Economic normalization alongside resource and geopolitical risksAnnual report
「During the cumulative third quarter under review, Japan's economy showed signs of recovery as economic activity normalized with the transition to the post-COVID period. However, uncertainty about the outlook remains as resource and energy prices continue to soar due to the prolonged situation between Russia and Ukraine and unstable conditions in the Middle East.」
While noting the normalization of economic activity and economic recovery in the post-COVID period, it also cites soaring resource and energy prices and uncertainty about the outlook arising from the situations in Russia, Ukraine and the Middle East. - FY2024-Q2WorsenedAnnual report
「However, uncertainty about the outlook continues due to the effects of downside risks to the economy from soaring prices and monetary tightening by countries, as well as heightened geopolitical risks resulting from the prolonged situation in Ukraine and escalating tensions in the Middle East.」
It specifically identifies soaring prices and monetary tightening by countries, together with the prolonged situation in Ukraine and escalating tensions in the Middle East, as economic downside and geopolitical risks. - FY2024-Q1RestatedAnnual report
「Meanwhile, the situation between Russia and Ukraine has been prolonged, and uncertainty about the outlook remains due to soaring raw material and energy prices and their negative impact on the global economy.」
It maintains uncertainty about the outlook due to the prolonged situation between Russia and Ukraine, soaring raw material and energy prices and their adverse impact on the global economy. - FY2023Recovering demand alongside foreign-exchange and resource-price risksAnnual report
「The outlook for the economy remains increasingly uncertain due to sharp fluctuations in foreign-exchange rates and soaring resource prices resulting from the situation between Russia and Ukraine.」
In addition to noting the normalization of economic activity as the impact of the pandemic eased, it specifically identifies sharp foreign-exchange fluctuations and soaring resource prices as downside factors for the economy. - FY2023-Q3Gradual recovery alongside concerns about a global recessionAnnual report
「Amid the continuing impact of the novel coronavirus infection, the economy showed signs of recovery due to the easing of activity restrictions, the resumption of social events and growing willingness to go out, resulting in a gradual recovery trend. Meanwhile, concerns about a global economic downturn due to the situation in Ukraine, monetary tightening in Europe and the United States, and China's response to COVID-19, as well as a decline in real income due to rising prices and higher corporate costs domestically, have left the outlook uncertain.」
While noting a recovery in economic activity, it also cites concerns about an economic downturn due to the situation in Ukraine, monetary tightening in Europe and the United States, China's COVID-19 response, rising prices and higher corporate costs. - FY2023-Q2Economic recovery alongside cost and geopolitical risksAnnual report
「During the cumulative second quarter under review, Japan's economy showed signs of recovery as restrictions on activities were eased, social events resumed and the desire to go out increased, although the effects of COVID-19 continued. However, raw material prices soared due to the rapid depreciation of the yen and the prolonged deterioration of the situation between Russia and Ukraine, while fuel prices remained elevated, and uncertainty about the outlook continued.」
While noting signs of recovery in economic activity, it also cites uncertainty about the outlook due to the rapid depreciation of the yen, the situation between Russia and Ukraine, soaring raw material prices and persistently high fuel prices. - FY2023-Q1WorsenedAnnual report
「During the cumulative first quarter under review, Japan's economy remained uncertain amid growing concerns about a resurgence of COVID-19 infections. In addition to soaring energy and raw material prices following Russia's invasion of Ukraine, rising price pressures resulting from the rapid depreciation of the yen due in part to the widening interest-rate differential between Japan and the United States and supply chain disruptions continued to affect the economy.」
It newly specifies the factors behind uncertainty in the global and domestic economies, including the invasion of Ukraine, soaring energy and raw material prices, the rapid depreciation of the yen and supply chain disruptions. - FY2022WorsenedAnnual report
「However, downside risks to the economy have emerged, including restrictions on economic activity due to the spread of the Omicron variant since the beginning of the year and soaring resource prices. In addition, rising geopolitical risks, including the situation in Ukraine, have increased uncertainty about the outlook.」
It newly identifies infectious disease variants, soaring resource prices and geopolitical risks, including the situation in Ukraine, thereby specifying the downside risks to the economy and the uncertainty about the outlook. - FY2022-Q3Economic recovery alongside continued uncertainty due to variantsAnnual report
「During the cumulative third quarter of the current consolidated fiscal year, Japan's economy showed signs of recovery in capital investment and personal consumption as corporate performance improved, while the spread of infection showed signs of stabilizing due to the wider availability of vaccinations, despite the continuing impact of the novel coronavirus infection. However, the infection has not yet been brought under control, and the spread of variants appears to be accelerating rapidly not only overseas but also domestically, leaving the outlook for the domestic economy uncertain.」
Although signs of recovery have emerged in corporate performance, capital investment and personal consumption, uncertainty about the outlook for the domestic economy continues due to the spread of variants both domestically and overseas and the ongoing pandemic. - FY2022-Q2Some improvement alongside continued uncertainty about the outlookAnnual report
「Although some improvement has been seen, including a COVID-19 vaccination rate exceeding 60% and a trend toward higher corporate earnings, the economic outlook remains uncertain.」
While noting some improvement, including a vaccination rate above 60% and a trend toward higher corporate earnings, it maintains the view that the outlook remains uncertain as the spread of infectious diseases and restrictions on economic activity continue. - FY2022-Q1WorsenedAnnual report
「Overseas, infections have begun to spread again in Asia due in part to the impact of variants, while rising geopolitical risks in relations between the US and China have also contributed to continued uncertainty over the outlook.」
Provides greater specificity on uncertainty in overseas conditions by citing a resurgence of infections in Asia due to variants and geopolitical risks including US-China relations. - FY2021WorsenedAnnual report
「During the fiscal year under review, Japan's economy faced difficult conditions as the global spread of COVID-19 continued to depress economic activity and personal consumption. As Japan's vaccination rollout lagged behind those of other countries, there was no clear prospect of containing the infections, and uncertainty over the outlook continued.」
Explicitly identifies the infections, stalled economic activity, weak personal consumption, the delayed vaccination rollout and the lack of a clear prospect for containing the infections. - FY2021-Q3Partial recovery coexisting with uncertainty from the prolonged impact of infectionsAnnual report
「During the cumulative third quarter of the current consolidated fiscal year, Japan's economy showed signs of recovery in personal consumption and exports. However, the impact of the spread of the novel coronavirus has persisted, and the outlook remains extremely uncertain.」
The description has shifted to one that notes a partial recovery in personal consumption and exports while stating that uncertainty over the outlook continues as the spread of infections is prolonged. - FY2021-Q2WorsenedAnnual report
「During the second quarter of the consolidated cumulative period, Japan's economy faced extremely difficult conditions as the global spread of COVID-19 restricted economic activity domestically, causing a rapid economic contraction, deteriorating corporate earnings and sluggish personal consumption. Although economic activity resumed after the state of emergency was lifted, there was still no clear prospect of containing the spread of infections, and the outlook remained uncertain.」
Provides greater specificity on uncertainty in the global economy and Japan's domestic economy, including restrictions on economic activity due to the spread of infections, a rapid economic contraction and deteriorating corporate earnings. - FY2020-Q3WorsenedAnnual report
「External demand also lacked momentum as trade frictions slowed the global economy, while automobile sales volumes and industrial machinery shipments declined and business sentiment in manufacturing continued to deteriorate. Many concerns remain regarding Japan's domestic economy, including personal consumption and the slowdown in the global economy, further increasing uncertainty.」
Specifically describes the slowdown in the global economy caused by trade frictions, sluggish external demand, declines in automobile sales volumes and industrial machinery shipments, and deteriorating business sentiment in manufacturing, indicating that uncertainty is increasing further. - FY2020-Q2WorsenedAnnual report
「Meanwhile, manufacturing continued to deteriorate against a backdrop of sluggish global automobile sales and semiconductor-related activity and declining orders in the machine-tool and machinery industries. Higher labor costs due to severe labor shortages and disruptions to corporate activity in some regions caused by Typhoon No. 15 also raised the possibility that the economy was entering a recessionary phase.」
Cites sluggish automobile and semiconductor-related activity, declining orders in the machine-tool and machinery industries, and deteriorating manufacturing conditions, and explicitly raises the possibility of entering a recessionary phase. - FY2020-Q1WorsenedAnnual report
「It also reports that, in addition to US-China trade frictions, a slowdown in the Chinese economy has caused exports to stagnate, further increasing uncertainty over the global economy.」
Adds that, in addition to US-China trade frictions, a slowdown in the Chinese economy is causing exports to stagnate, providing greater specificity on uncertainty in the global economy. - FY2019RestatedAnnual report
「However, uncertainty about the outlook for the global economy continues due to US-China trade frictions and the UK's Brexit issue, among other factors, and the impact on Japan's economy going forward also requires close monitoring.」
Continues to identify uncertainty in the global economy, including US-China trade frictions and the UK's Brexit issue, as an external environment risk. - FY2019-Q3WorsenedAnnual report
「During the third quarter of the consolidated cumulative period, Japan's economy deteriorated as the sharp drop in Japanese and US share prices and the effects of US-China trade frictions became apparent in some areas, while an unusually warm winter dampened sales of seasonal products. The factors cited behind the sharp decline in share prices included rising global risks such as concerns over a US recession, intensifying US-China tensions, concerns about a no-deal Brexit and the risk of further yen appreciation, all of which weighed on business sentiment.」
Lists the sharp declines in Japanese and US share prices, the increasingly apparent effects of US-China trade frictions, concerns over a US recession, intensifying US-China tensions, concerns about a no-deal Brexit and the risk of further yen appreciation, providing greater specificity on global risks and deteriorating business sentiment. - FY2019-Q1WorsenedAnnual report
「However, if concerns over US-China trade frictions increase uncertainty about the outlook, they could exert downward pressure on the global economy by making companies more cautious about capital investment, and developments overseas will continue to require close monitoring.」
Newly identifies concerns over US-China trade frictions and reports the possibility that they could make companies more cautious about capital investment and exert downward pressure on the global economy. - FY2018SoftenedAnnual report
「The situation continues to require close monitoring together with developments in the global economy.」
The wording has been softened from listing specific situations involving the Trump administration, China, Europe and East Asia to the more general expression "developments in the global economy." - FY2018-Q3WorsenedAnnual report
「However, uncertainty about the outlook continues due to concerns over US political developments and rising geopolitical risks in the Middle East and Asia, raising concerns about the impact on Japan's domestic economy.」
Regarding uncertainty in overseas conditions, explicitly identifies geopolitical risks in the Middle East and Asia in addition to the US, broadening the regions of concern. - FY2018-Q2WorsenedAnnual report
「However, uncertainty about the outlook continues due to concerns over US political developments and rising geopolitical risks in East Asia.」
Regarding uncertainty in overseas conditions, explicitly adds rising geopolitical risks in East Asia to the previously cited situations in the US and Europe. - FY2018-Q1RestatedAnnual report
「However, uncertainty remains due to the policies of President Trump, Europe's political situation and rising tensions on the Korean Peninsula, and continued attention to developments overseas is considered necessary.」
In addition to the Trump administration and the situation in Europe, records uncertainty in overseas conditions, including rising tensions on the Korean Peninsula, as an external environment requiring continued attention. - FY2017First statedAnnual report
「Amid uncertainty over the outlook, including policies of the Trump administration, European political developments such as the UK's withdrawal from the EU, and concerns over a downturn in the Chinese economy, personal consumption and capital investment remained cautious, and the economy overall continued to lack momentum.」
In addition to the risk of the UK's withdrawal from the EU, records uncertainty in the international economic environment, including Trump administration policies and concerns over a downturn in the Chinese economy, as a new group of risks.