Uncertainty in overseas economies due to US economic policy and geopolitical risks
First written in FY2018. 19 of 26 entries say "Worsened", first in FY2019-Q2. Latest entry: 2026-05-14.
The whole theme swung hardest in 2022: 106 of 135 companies on the "Worse" side.
- 2026-05-14WorsenedRevisions to earnings forecasts
「2026 年度につきましては、米国による関税措置の継続・拡大の可能性や、中東情勢の悪化に伴う地政学的リスクの高まりなどにより、事業環境の先行きは不透明な状況が続くと見込まれます。」
米国の関税措置の継続・拡大の可能性及び中東情勢の悪化に伴う地政学的リスクの高まりを、2026年度目標修正の理由として記載した。 - FY2026-H1WorsenedAnnual report
「The global economy continued to slow overall during the interim consolidated accounting period. In the United States, higher tariffs imposed by the government are squeezing corporate earnings and weighing on the economy. In Europe, services have remained firm, while weakness in manufacturing has weighed on the economy. In China, the effect of the government's subsidy policies has waned, and the economy has continued to slow because of stagnant domestic demand.」
In addition to the existing concerns about US economic and trade policies, the report states that higher tariffs imposed by the government are squeezing corporate earnings. Weakness in European manufacturing and the waning effect of China's subsidy policies, together with stagnant domestic demand, have made the factors contributing to uncertainty in overseas economies more concrete. - FY2025WorsenedAnnual report
「The business environment is expected to remain unpredictable because of various policies pursued by US President Trump, concerns about a resurgence of US-China trade friction and rising geopolitical tensions.」
The report identifies the various policies of the new US administration, a resurgence of US-China trade friction and rising geopolitical tensions as factors contributing to uncertainty in the business environment. - FY2024WorsenedAnnual report
「The situation remains unpredictable because of the situation in Ukraine, rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and concerns about a slowdown in the Chinese economy.」
In addition to the ongoing US-China trade friction, monetary tightening and the situation in Ukraine, the report highlights rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. - FY2024-Q3WorsenedAnnual report
「During the third quarter of the current consolidated fiscal year, the global economy has been slowing against a backdrop of increasing instability in international affairs. Despite monetary tightening, the U.S. economy has maintained a high growth rate as robust employment and income conditions have supported consumption. The European economy has stagnated as high prices and monetary tightening have weakened domestic demand. Although China's economy has maintained a growth rate of around the government's target of 5% year on year, uncertainty over the outlook has increased due to adjustments in the real estate market and slowing external demand.」
The report describes high prices in Europe, sluggish domestic demand, adjustments in China's real estate market and slowing external demand, indicating that factors contributing to uncertainty in overseas economies have intensified from the previous quarter. - FY2024-Q2RestatedAnnual report
「During the first six months of the fiscal year under review, personal consumption and employment remained firm in the United States, but monetary tightening affected the real estate and housing markets. In Europe, the impact of the situation in Ukraine continued, personal consumption remained sluggish because of persistently high inflation, and economic growth was gradual. In China, weakness was seen in the real estate market and production activity, and the pace of economic recovery slowed.」
The report continues to identify monetary tightening in the United States, the situation in Ukraine and inflation in Europe, and weakness in China's real estate market and production activity as factors contributing to uncertainty in overseas economies. - FY2024-Q1WorsenedAnnual report
「During the first quarter of the fiscal year under review, the economies of the United States and Europe continued to slow because of monetary tightening by central banks to curb inflation and the impact of Russia's invasion of Ukraine. In China, although signs of a return to normality were seen following the end of the zero-COVID policy, weakness remained in real estate investment and production activity, and the pace of economic recovery was gradual.」
Uncertainty surrounding monetary tightening, geopolitical risks and the slowdown in China continued, with the United States and Europe showing signs of slowing and China showing weakness in real estate investment and production activity. - FY2023-Q3WorsenedAnnual report
「During the third quarter of the current consolidated fiscal year, business sentiment in the United States and Europe deteriorated due to sharply rising prices, continued interest rate hikes by central banks, and soaring energy prices resulting from the situation in Ukraine. In China, the pace of economic recovery showed signs of slowing as the zero-COVID policy weighed on personal consumption and restricted production activity.」
In addition to the ongoing US-China trade friction and geopolitical risks, the report describes rising prices, interest-rate hikes, soaring energy prices and an economic slowdown caused by China's zero-COVID policy, making the factors contributing to uncertainty in overseas economies more concrete. - FY2023-Q2WorsenedAnnual report
「During the first six months of the fiscal year under review, sentiment in the United States deteriorated against the backdrop of monetary tightening to curb inflation, while economic growth in Europe also slowed because of soaring energy prices and higher interest rates. In China, lockdowns were imposed in major cities and elsewhere under the zero-COVID policy, and the pace of economic recovery is showing signs of slowing.」
The report describes deteriorating sentiment in the United States due to monetary tightening, slower growth in Europe because of higher energy prices and interest rates, and a slower pace of recovery in China due to its zero-COVID policy, making the factors contributing to uncertainty in overseas economies more concrete. - FY2023-Q1Recovery in the United States and Europe alongside a slowdown in China and geopolitical risksAnnual report
「During the first quarter of the fiscal year under review, the global economy continued to expand in various industries in the United States despite rising inflation. In Europe, the economy continued to recover despite concerns including soaring energy prices and the protracted situation in Ukraine. Meanwhile, in China, economic growth slowed because of the impact of city lockdowns and other measures resulting from the continuation of the zero-COVID policy.」
While economic expansion or recovery continued in the United States and Europe, the report identified Europe's energy prices and the situation in Ukraine, as well as China's zero-COVID policy and the resulting slowdown in growth caused by city lockdowns, as factors contributing to uncertainty. - FY2022WorsenedAnnual report
「In Europe, the trend toward economic recovery has been maintained as restrictions on economic activity have been gradually eased in each country, but the outlook has become uncertain because of increased geopolitical risks surrounding the situation in Ukraine. In China, the pace of economic recovery is showing signs of slowing somewhat because of the government's stringent COVID-19 policies and other measures.」
While describing the recovery trend in the United States and Europe, the report identifies increased geopolitical risks arising from the situation in Ukraine, a slower pace of economic recovery in China, and inflation and disruption to logistics as new factors contributing to uncertainty. - FY2022-Q3Recovery in the United States and Europe alongside a slowdown in China, with uncertainty at home and abroadAnnual report
「During the first nine months of the fiscal year under review, the global economy saw personal consumption increase in the United States, and the economy recover, owing to progress in COVID-19 vaccinations and the effects of large-scale economic policies. In Europe, the trend toward economic recovery has been maintained as restrictions on economic activity have been gradually eased in each country. In China, the pace of economic recovery is showing signs of slowing somewhat because of government measures to address COVID-19, power restrictions and other regulations.」
While recovery is progressing in the United States and Europe, the pace of recovery in China is slowing because of regulations and other factors. In Japan, the Omicron variant, parts shortages, and soaring raw material prices and transportation costs have also emerged, changing the factors contributing to uncertainty about the outlook, including the overseas economy. - FY2022-Q2WorsenedAnnual report
「The pace of growth in personal consumption has slowed somewhat because of the resurgence of COVID-19. In China, personal consumption remains firm, but the pace of economic recovery is showing signs of slowing somewhat because of the government's investment curbs and other measures.」
Factors contributing to uncertainty have intensified, shifting from the recovery trend in overseas economies driven by vaccinations and the reopening of economic activity in the previous quarter to slower US consumption caused by renewed infections and a slower pace of economic recovery in China. - FY2022-Q1MitigatedAnnual report
「In developed economies, the recovery trend is strengthening as COVID-19 vaccinations progress and measures such as travel restrictions are gradually lifted. In the United States in particular, economic activity is reopening, and the boost to personal consumption from the government's additional economic measures has contributed to a marked recovery in the economy.」
Against the backdrop of uncertainty in overseas economies caused by the spread of infections and renewed lockdowns through the previous fiscal year, it describes the recovery in the United States and Europe driven by vaccinations, the reopening of economic activity and additional economic measures. However, uncertainty about the outlook remains in Japan because of variant strains and in China because of renewed infections and other factors. - FY2021-Q3WorsenedAnnual report
「The spread of COVID-19 has become increasingly severe, and the economic outlook remains uncertain, with some countries and regions imposing lockdowns again.」
The report describes the worsening spread of COVID-19, renewed lockdowns and uncertainty about the economic outlook, indicating that factors contributing to uncertainty in overseas economies are intensifying. - FY2021-Q2RestatedAnnual report
「However, concerns about a resurgence of infections remain strong, and the economic outlook continues to be uncertain. Although some industries in China are showing signs of recovery, the pace of recovery remains gradual, partly because of the impact of trade friction with the United States.」
While the phased reopening of economic activity and signs of recovery are emerging in Europe and the United States, uncertainty in overseas economies continues because of the resurgence of infections, US-China trade friction and China's slow pace of recovery. - FY2021-Q1WorsenedAnnual report
「During the first quarter of the fiscal year under review, the global economy was in an extremely difficult situation, as the spread of COVID-19 dealt a major blow to social and economic activity. In Europe and the United States, uncertainty about the economic outlook is increasing as economic activity is curtailed by business shutdowns and restrictions on going out and travel.」
In addition to US-China trade friction and issues surrounding the UK's withdrawal from the EU, the report describes restrictions on economic activity caused by the spread of COVID-19 and uncertainty about the economic outlook, indicating that factors contributing to uncertainty in overseas economies are expanding further. - FY2020WorsenedAnnual report
「In addition, economic activity has been constrained by the spread of COVID-19, leaving the outlook for the domestic and global economies uncertain.」
In addition to US-China trade friction and issues surrounding the UK's withdrawal from the EU, it describes the curtailment of economic activity and uncertainty about the outlook resulting from COVID-19. - FY2020-Q3WorsenedAnnual report
「In China, exports have declined due to the impact of US-China trade friction, while personal consumption and other areas have also weakened, and the economic slowdown has continued. In Europe, corporate performance has deteriorated, particularly in manufacturing, and the UK's withdrawal from the EU remains an issue; overall, economic conditions have remained sluggish.」
Against a backdrop of US-China trade friction, the UK's withdrawal from the EU and deteriorating corporate performance in Europe, the slowdown in the Chinese and European economies has become more pronounced, and uncertainty and deterioration in the overseas economies have continued. - FY2020-Q2WorsenedAnnual report
「However, amid the chaotic global situation, the outlook for economic conditions in both Japan and the global economy has become increasingly uncertain.」
Against a backdrop of US-China trade friction, the UK's withdrawal from the EU and a slowdown in the overseas economies, the disclosure states that uncertainty about the outlook for economic conditions at home and abroad has increased further. - FY2020-Q1WorsenedAnnual report
「However, against a backdrop of the intensification of US-China trade friction, the UK's withdrawal from the EU and other instability in the global situation, the outlook for economic conditions in both Japan and the global economy has become increasingly uncertain.」
Against a backdrop of intensifying US-China trade friction and the UK's withdrawal from the EU, among other factors, the disclosure states that uncertainty about the outlook for economic conditions at home and abroad has increased further. - FY2019WorsenedAnnual report
「US-China trade friction, the UK's withdrawal from the EU, protectionist moves in various countries, and rising geopolitical risks in Asia and the Middle East have increased uncertainty in the global economy, including Japan, making the outlook extremely difficult to foresee.」
Against a backdrop of concerns about US trade policy, the disclosure explicitly expands the range of factors contributing to uncertainty to include US-China trade friction, the UK's withdrawal from the EU, protectionism and geopolitical risks, and states that uncertainty has increased. - FY2019-Q3WorsenedAnnual report
「However, the outlook for the global economy, including Japan, remains uncertain, with concerns about US-China trade friction continuing to grow.」
In addition to the previous uncertainty in the overseas economies centered on US trade policy, the disclosure identifies US-China trade friction and states that uncertainty has increased. - FY2019-Q2WorsenedAnnual report
「Meanwhile, the outlook for the global economy, including Japan, remains uncertain, with concerns about developments in US trade policy increasing uncertainty.」
The disclosure reiterates developments in US trade policy as a factor contributing to uncertainty in the overseas economies and describes uncertainty as having increased this time. - FY2019-Q1RestatedAnnual report
「Meanwhile, the outlook for the global economy, including Japan, remains uncertain due to concerns about developments in US trade policy.」
The disclosure reiterates concerns about developments in US trade policy as a factor contributing to uncertainty in the overseas economies arising from US economic policy. - FY2018First statedAnnual report
「The overseas economies are expected to continue a gradual recovery, but the outlook remains uncertain due to US economic policy, geopolitical risks in Asia and the Middle East, and trends in emerging-market and resource-rich economies, among other factors.」
Alongside the outlook for recovery in the overseas economies, the disclosure identifies US economic policy, geopolitical risks in Asia and the Middle East, and trends in emerging-market and resource-rich economies as factors making the outlook uncertain for the first time.