The Declining Birth Rate and the Structural Contraction of the Cram-School Market
First written in FY2016. 15 of 33 entries say "Reframed", first in FY2017-Q2. Latest entry: 2026-08-06.
Shuei Yobiko moved to the "Worse" side of this theme in 2020, 1 year after the typical company in this theme (2019).
2 other companies' latest entry also says "Restated".
- FY2026-H1RestatedAnnual report
「In this industry, oligopolization and corporate consolidation are progressing amid a business environment characterized by the continuing decline in the birthrate, declining household disposable income and persistent excessive competition.」
It continues to describe an industry environment characterized by the declining birthrate, declining disposable income, excessive competition, oligopolization and corporate consolidation. - FY2025-H1RestatedAnnual report
「In this industry, oligopolization and corporate consolidation are progressing amid a business environment characterized by the declining birthrate, declining disposable income and excessive competition.」
It continues to describe an industry environment characterized by the declining birthrate, declining disposable income, excessive competition and corporate consolidation. - FY2024ReframedAnnual report
「In this industry, although the declining birthrate is progressing further, the market remains flat due to an expansion in the grades served and higher average spending per customer.」
While the declining birthrate is progressing further, it explains that the market is flat rather than contracting due to the expansion in the grades served and higher average spending per customer. - FY2024-Q2ReframedAnnual report
「In this industry, operations at private tutoring school locations can now be conducted under conditions close to those before COVID-19. At the same time, the pandemic accelerated the introduction of online classes, increasing the number of private tutoring schools offering a combination of in-person and online classes and schools operating exclusively online. Attendance rates among high school students and lower-elementary students have also been rising.」
While operations close to pre-COVID-19 conditions are now possible, its view of the market structure has expanded to include the increase in private tutoring schools offering combined or exclusively online formats and rising attendance rates among high school students and lower-elementary students. - FY2024-Q1RestatedAnnual report
「In this industry, the market has nearly recovered to its pre-COVID-19 level.」
It continues to recognize that the private tutoring school market has recovered to nearly its pre-COVID-19 level. - FY2023ReframedAnnual report
「Although some households whose income declined due to the COVID-19 pandemic have moved away from private tutoring schools, the market overall is broadly at its pre-COVID-19 level.」
While some students continue to leave private tutoring schools due to reduced household income, the view of the market has shifted from one of being on the road to recovery to one that it has broadly returned to its pre-COVID-19 level. - FY2023-Q3ReframedAnnual report
「In this industry, the market is now nearly back to its pre-COVID-19 level through measures such as adapting class formats during the pandemic, combining live and online classes, and holding online parent meetings.」
Regarding the private tutoring school market, the view has shifted from one of being on the road to recovery to one that it has nearly returned to its pre-COVID-19 level through adaptations to class formats and the use of online services. - FY2023-Q2ReframedAnnual report
「In this industry, operations have been conducted under conditions close to normal through measures including mask-wearing, alcohol disinfection, thorough ventilation, classes with small numbers of students and the introduction of online classes. In addition, attendance rates among lower-elementary students and high school students have been rising.」
In contrast to the previous market view based on the declining birthrate and market contraction, it explains that infection-control measures and online classes have enabled operations close to normal and that attendance rates among lower-elementary and high school students are rising. - FY2023-Q1ReframedAnnual report
「In this industry, progress has been made in developing and refining ways to continue learning during the COVID-19 pandemic, resulting in a with-COVID environment, and the market has broadly recovered.」
In addition to the previous concerns about market contraction due to the declining birthrate, it indicates that the market has broadly recovered as a result of the development and refinement of learning formats in response to the COVID-19 pandemic. - FY2022ReframedAnnual report
「The market in this industry has broadly recovered from the sharp downturn caused by concerns about going out, but has not fully returned to pre-COVID-19 levels due to the impact of reduced household income and other factors resulting from the pandemic.」
The private tutoring school market has broadly recovered from the downturn caused by concerns about going out, but the view has shifted to one that it has not returned to pre-COVID-19 levels due to reduced household income and other factors. - FY2022-Q3ReframedAnnual report
「Although this industry is on a path to some recovery, conditions remain uncertain due to declines in household income and concerns about attending private tutoring schools resulting from COVID-19.」
It describes the private tutoring school industry as being on a path to some recovery, while conditions remain uncertain due to declines in household income and concerns about attending private tutoring schools. - FY2022-Q2ReframedAnnual report
「In this industry, operations at private tutoring schools have been conducted under conditions close to normal through various COVID-19 measures, including alcohol disinfection, ventilation, small class sizes and a combination of in-person and online classes. In addition, educational interest among students and parents has increased, and demand for private tutoring schools has tended to rise due to English becoming a formal elementary school subject, textbook revisions and changes to the university entrance examination system.」
While retaining the previous premise of concerns about the declining birthrate and market contraction, it indicates that infection-control measures and the combination of in-person and online classes have enabled operations close to normal, while changes to the education system have increased demand for private tutoring schools. The explanation of market conditions has been revised to include changes in demand resulting from the COVID-19 response and education reform. - FY2022-Q1ReframedAnnual report
「In this industry, the market has begun to recover as a result of various initiatives, including developing ways to provide private tutoring school services suited to the continuing COVID-19 pandemic and introducing online classes.」
The explanation has shifted from the previous view that the market was flat or contracting against the backdrop of the declining birthrate and intensifying competition to the view that the market is recovering due to responses to the COVID-19 pandemic and the introduction of online classes. - FY2020RestatedAnnual report
「In this industry, the declining birthrate is progressing further, and the market is flat or contracting.」
It continues to describe the declining birthrate and the private tutoring school market as flat or contracting. - FY2020-Q3WorsenedAnnual report
「In this industry, annual births have fallen below 900,000, and the declining birthrate is progressing further.」
It describes the continuing decline in the birthrate, accompanied by the figure that annual births have fallen below 900,000. - FY2020-Q2RestatedAnnual report
「In this industry, while the declining birthrate is progressing further, the expansion of multi-school operations by major and mid-sized tutoring companies and the active franchising of individually oriented schools have led to intensified excessive competition, consolidation and restructuring across the industry.」
It continues to present the declining birthrate as an underlying premise of the industry environment. Intensifying competition and industry restructuring are discussed in detail in a separate thread. - FY2020-Q1ReframedAnnual report
「In this industry, as the birthrate declines, the trend toward demanding attentive instruction tailored to each student is strengthening, and the market share of individually oriented private tutoring schools is approaching that of group-oriented schools in terms of total industry revenue.」
Against the backdrop of concerns about market contraction due to the declining birthrate, it indicates stronger demand for attentive instruction tailored to each student and a change in market structure in which the market share of individually oriented schools is approaching that of group-oriented schools. - FY2019RestatedAnnual report
「In this industry, the school attendance rate and average spending per customer are nearly at their upper limits, while the declining birthrate is progressing further, so the market is expected to contract going forward.」
It continues to recognize that the market will contract going forward against the backdrop of the upper limits on the school attendance rate and average spending per customer and the continuing decline in the birthrate. - FY2019-Q3RestatedAnnual report
「There have been no material changes compared with the end of the previous consolidated fiscal year.」
It states that there have been no material changes in business and other risks, with no changes disclosed regarding the existing risk of market contraction. - FY2019-Q2WorsenedAnnual report
「In this industry, the declining birthrate is progressing further and the market is expected to contract. In addition, the education reforms beginning in 2020 are bringing major changes to the business environment, including the introduction of the Common Test for University Admissions, English becoming a formal subject in elementary schools, compulsory programming education, and the need to respond to EdTech, which uses information technology extensively.」
It explicitly forecasts market contraction due to the declining birthrate and emphasizes structural changes in the business environment, including the need to respond to education reform, programming education and EdTech. - FY2019-Q1RestatedAnnual report
「In this industry, initiatives addressing the new elementary school English education introduced from 2018 and changes to the university entrance examination system in 2020 are required. As English becomes a formal elementary school subject, attendance at private tutoring schools from the elementary school years is expected to become more widespread, including in regional cities.」
It continues to recognize a change in market structure in which attendance at private tutoring schools from the elementary school years is becoming more widespread against the backdrop of English becoming a formal elementary school subject and changes to the university entrance examination system. - FY2018ReframedAnnual report
「In this industry, the introduction of English as a formal elementary school subject from 2018 has brought major changes to the business environment. Attendance at private tutoring schools from the early years of elementary school is expected to become more widespread.」
While continuing to face concerns about structural contraction due to the declining birthrate, it newly emphasizes a change in market structure, namely the broader adoption of private tutoring school attendance from the early years of elementary school following the introduction of English as a formal subject. - FY2018-Q3RestatedAnnual report
「In this industry, the declining birthrate is progressing further and average spending per customer has nearly reached its upper limit, so the market is expected to contract going forward.」
It continues to anticipate future market contraction against the backdrop of the declining birthrate and the upper limit on average spending per customer. At the same time, it expects a tailwind from an increase in elementary school students attending private tutoring schools due to the early implementation and transition measures for elementary school English from fiscal 2018. - FY2018-Q2RestatedAnnual report
「In this industry, although changes to the university entrance examination system in 2020 provide certain positive factors, the market remains broadly flat due to the continuing decline in the birthrate.」
While the declining birthrate continues, it acknowledges the positive factors from changes to the university entrance examination system and maintains the view that the market will remain flat. - FY2018-Q1RestatedAnnual report
「In this industry, although changes to the university entrance examination system in 2020 provide certain positive factors, the market remains broadly flat due to the continuing decline in the birthrate.」
It describes the positive factors from the 2020 changes to the university entrance examination system and the market remaining flat recently. At the same time, management's recognition of the issues in the same filing continues to indicate that the market will contract in the future due to the declining birthrate and the upper limit on average spending per customer. - FY2017WorsenedAnnual report
「In this industry, the declining birthrate is progressing further and average spending per customer has nearly reached its upper limit, so the market is expected to contract going forward.」
In addition to the previous explanation that the market was flat, it indicates that the market is expected to contract going forward against the backdrop of the declining birthrate and the upper limit on average spending per customer. - FY2017-Q3RestatedAnnual report
「In this industry, although the declining birthrate is progressing further, the trend toward attending private tutoring schools has strengthened due to external factors such as upcoming changes to the entrance examination system, and the market has expanded, albeit slightly.」
Although the declining birthrate is progressing, it explains that the market continues to expand slightly as changes to the entrance examination system and other factors strengthen the trend toward attending private tutoring schools. - FY2017-Q2ReframedAnnual report
「In this industry, although the declining birthrate is progressing further, the trend toward attending private tutoring schools from the early years of primary school has strengthened, and the market has expanded, albeit slightly.」
While the declining birthrate continues, the trend toward attending private tutoring schools from the early years of primary school has shifted the market outlook from previously being flat or contracting to slight expansion. - FY2017-Q1RestatedAnnual report
「The market has continued to remain flat or contract.」
It states that the private tutoring school market has continued to remain flat or contract. - FY2016First statedAnnual report
「In this industry, the market has remained broadly flat as negative factors, including the declining birthrate and the upper limits on the school attendance rate and average tuition per student, have combined with positive factors, such as more difficult course content following revisions to the national curriculum guidelines, which have increased demand for private tutoring schools.」
The declining birthrate and the upper limits on the school attendance rate and average tuition per student are identified as structural industry factors. It also explains that there are actually schools where the number of students has declined due to market contraction and other factors.