Greater uncertainty in the external environment stemming from an economic slowdown, yen appreciation and other factors

「Although there were various risk factors, including U.S. financial and trade policies and the situation in Iran, the economy generally remained on a recovery track, supported by continued strong corporate earnings and favorable employment conditions, sustained wage increases and wealth effects from record-high stock prices.」

「During the current fiscal year, Japan's economy generally remained on a recovery trend. Despite various risk factors, including US financial and trade policies and the situation in Iran, Japan exited deflation on the back of strong corporate performance, favorable employment conditions, and continued wage increases, including the Bank of Japan raising its policy rate to 0.75% in December 2025, the first such increase in 30 years.」

「During the current fiscal year, Japan's economy generally remained on a recovery trend. Despite various risk factors, including US financial and trade policies and the situation in Iran, Japan exited deflation on the back of strong corporate performance, favorable employment conditions, and continued wage increases, including the Bank of Japan raising its policy rate to 0.75% in December 2025, the first such increase in 30 years.」

「During the current interim consolidated fiscal period, Japan's economy maintained a recovery trend toward a full-fledged inflationary economy, driven by strong corporate performance, continued favorable employment conditions, sustained aggressive wage increases, and progress in passing wage increases through to prices, despite risk factors including developments in the Middle East and Ukraine, US tariff policy, and changes in monetary policy.」

「Despite various risk factors, including developments in the Middle East and Ukraine and the policies of the new US administration, the economy has maintained a recovery trend toward a full-fledged inflationary economy, supported by strong corporate performance, continued aggressive wage increases, and progress in passing wage increases through to prices.」

「During the current interim consolidated fiscal period, Japan's economy has generally maintained a recovery trend toward an exit from deflation, driven by strong corporate performance, continued aggressive wage increases, and progress in passing wage increases through to prices, despite various risk factors including developments in the Middle East and Ukraine and a slowdown in the Chinese economy.」

「During the current fiscal year, Japan's economy has maintained a moderate recovery trend, particularly among non-manufacturers, supported by the resurgence in inbound demand and favorable employment conditions, despite overseas uncertainties including developments in the Middle East and Ukraine and global monetary tightening」

「During the nine months ended [the third quarter] of the current fiscal year, Japan's economy maintained a high level of business sentiment, particularly among non-manufacturers such as service companies, despite concerns including continued high prices and worsening labor shortages. The DI for large enterprises across all industries in the Bank of Japan's December Tankan survey was 21, up 4 points from the previous survey in September.」

「During the six months ended [the second quarter] of the current fiscal year, Japan's economy saw the DI for large enterprises across all industries in the Bank of Japan's September Tankan survey improve to 17, up 4 points from the previous survey in June. Although concerns remain over a cooling in consumption due to the sharp rise in prices, business sentiment has continued to improve, particularly among non-manufacturers such as service companies.」

「According to the June Tankan survey by the Bank of Japan, Japan's economy during the first quarter of the current consolidated cumulative period saw further normalization of socioeconomic activity and improving business sentiment. The DI for all industries at large companies was 13, up 3 points from the previous March survey, despite some concerns about persistently high raw material prices and labor shortages.」

「Concerns about higher resource prices associated with the prolonged war in Ukraine and a global economic downturn caused by rapid interest-rate increases are expected to continue. Japan's economy as a whole is expected to remain highly uncertain.」

「According to the December Tankan survey by the Bank of Japan, Japan's economy during the third quarter of the current consolidated cumulative period showed signs of recovery overall. The DI for all industries at large companies improved by 2 points from plus 11 in the previous September survey to plus 13. Although business sentiment in manufacturing deteriorated due to the impact of higher raw material prices and other factors, business sentiment in non-manufacturing improved as the impact of the novel coronavirus eased.」

「According to the September Tankan survey by the Bank of Japan, Japan's economy during the second quarter of the current consolidated cumulative period remained in an uncertain outlook with no clear direction. The DI for all industries at large companies was plus 11 for the third consecutive quarter. While the impact of the novel coronavirus eased and business sentiment in non-manufacturing industries, particularly personal services, improved rapidly, concerns emerged over deteriorating performance in manufacturing and other industries due to soaring raw material prices against a backdrop of yen depreciation.」

「According to the June Tankan survey by the Bank of Japan, Japan's economy during the first quarter of the current consolidated cumulative period remained in an uncertain outlook. The DI for all industries at large companies was plus 11, unchanged from the previous March survey. Expectations for improved performance in non-manufacturing industries such as services increased as the number of novel coronavirus cases declined, while concerns emerged over deteriorating performance in manufacturing and other industries due to rapid inflation caused by higher resource prices and yen depreciation.」

「While progress in vaccinations and the spread of therapeutic drugs are expected to support a recovery in economic activity related to the novel coronavirus, concerns about inflation caused by higher resource prices associated with the war in Ukraine and a sharp depreciation of the yen show no signs of abating. Japan's economy as a whole is expected to remain highly uncertain for the time being.」

「According to the December Tankan survey by the Bank of Japan, Japan's economy during the third quarter of the current consolidated cumulative period continued to recover. The DI for all industries at large companies was plus 14, up from plus 10 in the previous September survey, as business sentiment in the non-manufacturing sector improved, partly due to progress in novel coronavirus vaccinations.」

「According to the September Tankan survey by the Bank of Japan, Japan's economy during the second quarter of the current consolidated cumulative period saw resilient investment activity in anticipation of the post-COVID period, supported by progress in vaccinations and other factors, despite concerns about semiconductor component supply, soaring raw material prices and the largest wave of novel coronavirus infections to date, the fifth wave. The DI for all industries at large companies improved by 2 points from the previous survey to plus 10.」

「According to the June Tankan survey by the Bank of Japan, Japan's economy during the first quarter of the current consolidated cumulative period improved as business sentiment advanced. The DI for all industries at large companies improved by 6 points from the previous survey to plus 8, partly due to progress in novel coronavirus vaccinations.」

「Japan's economy during the current consolidated fiscal year saw a record deterioration in business sentiment in the first half, the largest since the Global Financial Crisis, due to the spread of the novel coronavirus, with the DI for all industries at large companies at minus 26 in the June 2020 Tankan survey. In the second half, however, demand recovered, particularly in the automobile and semiconductor markets, as external demand from China and elsewhere recovered, and business sentiment overall turned positive in March 2021. Although conditions varied by industry, signs of improvement began to emerge.」

「According to the December Tankan survey by the Bank of Japan, Japan's economy during the third quarter of the current consolidated cumulative period continued to show a gradual recovery in business sentiment. The DI for all industries at large companies was minus 8, improving from minus 26 in the June survey, when the spread of the novel coronavirus had caused a deterioration in business sentiment comparable to that during the Global Financial Crisis.」

「According to the September Tankan survey by the Bank of Japan, Japan's economy during the second quarter of the current consolidated cumulative period saw the deterioration in business sentiment caused by the spread of the novel coronavirus temporarily halt. The DI for all industries at large companies improved by 5 points from the previous survey, which had marked the sharpest deterioration since the Global Financial Crisis, to minus 21.」

「According to the June Tankan survey by the Bank of Japan, Japan's economy during the first quarter of the current consolidated cumulative period saw a substantial deterioration in business sentiment, the largest since the Global Financial Crisis. Reflecting the sharp deterioration associated with the spread of the novel coronavirus, the DI for all industries at large companies deteriorated by 26 points from the previous survey to minus 26.」

「With the global spread of the novel coronavirus in 2020, the risk of a sharp economic downturn has begun to materialize.」

「According to the December Tankan survey by the Bank of Japan, Japan's economy during the third quarter of the current consolidated cumulative period saw continued weakness in external demand due to U.S.-China trade friction. The DI for all industries at large companies deteriorated by 4 points from plus 13 in the previous survey to plus 9, marking the fourth consecutive period of deterioration.」

「According to the September Tankan survey by the Bank of Japan, Japan's economy during the second quarter of the current consolidated cumulative period saw worsening business sentiment, particularly in manufacturing, due to prolonged U.S.-China trade friction and other factors. The DI for all industries at large companies deteriorated by 2 points from the previous survey to plus 13, marking the third consecutive period of deterioration.」

「According to the June Tankan survey by the Bank of Japan, Japan's economy during the first quarter of the current consolidated cumulative period was somewhat weaker, although the expansionary trend continued. The DI for all industries at large companies deteriorated by 2 points from the previous survey to plus 15, marking the second consecutive period of deterioration, as business sentiment worsened among companies dependent on external demand due to intensifying U.S.-China trade friction and other factors.」

「Although concerns including U.S.-China trade friction and a slowdown in the Chinese economy remained, Japan's economy during the current consolidated fiscal year generally continued to expand, supported by further expansion in corporate earnings and capital investment and continued improvement in employment and income conditions.」

「According to the December Tankan survey by the Bank of Japan, Japan's economy during the third quarter of the current consolidated cumulative period remained at a standstill. The DI for all industries at large companies was plus 21, unchanged from the previous survey, against a backdrop of prolonged U.S.-China trade friction and instability in the financial markets.」

「According to the September Tankan survey by the Bank of Japan, Japan's economy during the second quarter of the current consolidated cumulative period was at a standstill. The DI for all industries at large companies deteriorated by 1 point from the previous survey to plus 21, marking the third consecutive period of deterioration, due to the intensifying U.S.-China trade friction and the impact of repeated natural disasters.」

「According to the June Tankan survey by the Bank of Japan, Japan's economy during the first quarter of the current consolidated cumulative period was somewhat flat, although the recovery trend continued. The DI for all industries at large companies deteriorated by 1 point from the previous survey to plus 22, marking the second consecutive period of deterioration, due to rising material prices and labor costs, among other factors.」

「Although downside risks to the economy remained, including developments in U.S. trade policy, Japan's economy during the current consolidated fiscal year was in a recovery phase not seen in recent years, supported by the government- and Bank of Japan-led economic and monetary policies entering their fifth year, further recovery in corporate earnings, increased capital investment, and improvements in employment and income conditions.」

「According to the December Tankan survey by the Bank of Japan, Japan's economy during the third quarter of the current consolidated cumulative period was in a strong recovery phase not seen in recent years. The DI for all industries at large companies rose 2 points from the previous survey to plus 25, marking the fifth consecutive period of improvement, against a backdrop of strong external demand, capital investment and improving commodity markets, despite rising labor costs due to a labor shortage, the first of this scale since the bubble era, and unstable political conditions overseas, including in North Korea and the United States.」

「According to the September Tankan survey by the Bank of Japan, Japan's economy during the second quarter of the current consolidated cumulative period was showing an increasingly clear recovery trend. The DI for all industries at large companies rose 3 points from the previous survey to plus 23, marking the fourth consecutive period of improvement, against a backdrop of strong external demand and capital investment, despite concerns including the situation in North Korea.」

「According to the June Tankan survey by the Bank of Japan, Japan's economy during the first quarter of the current consolidated cumulative period was showing increasingly clear signs of recovery. The DI for all industries at large companies rose 4 points from the previous survey to plus 20, marking the third consecutive period of improvement, as corporate earnings expanded on the recovery in exports and personal consumption.」

「However, uncertainty in the external environment has increased due to developments in the economic policies of the new U.S. administration and slower growth in emerging economies, among other factors.」

「According to the December Tankan survey by the Bank of Japan, Japan's economy during the third quarter of the current consolidated cumulative period was trending toward recovery, having shifted from the slowdown in the first half, with the DI for all industries at large companies improving by 2 points from the previous survey to plus 14, mainly against a backdrop of the recovery in the U.S. economy and global stock markets and the recovery in crude oil prices following the U.S. presidential election.」

「According to the September Tankan survey by the Bank of Japan, Japan's economy during the second quarter of the current consolidated cumulative period remained in an uncertain outlook, with the DI for all industries at large companies unchanged at plus 12 from the previous survey against a deteriorating external environment, including the continued appreciation of the yen and a slowdown in emerging-market economies.」

「According to the June Tankan survey by the Bank of Japan, Japan's economy during the first quarter of the current consolidated cumulative period saw growing uncertainty, with the diffusion index (DI) for all industries at large companies deteriorating by 1 point from the previous survey to plus 12 amid the yen's appreciation since the start of the year and a slowdown in emerging-market economies.」

「The external environment has been deteriorating due to an economic slowdown in emerging Asian economies and a renewed appreciation of the yen, among other factors, and uncertainty about the outlook has been increasing.」