Outlook for Emerging-Market and Resource-Exporting Economies and Personal Consumption

「一方で、物価上昇の継続や為替相場の変動、地政学的リスクなどにより、先行きは依然として不透明な状況が続いております。」

「During the current interim consolidated accounting period (1 February 2026 to 31 July 2026), Japan's economy remained on a moderate recovery track against the backdrop of improving employment and income conditions, and signs of a pickup were seen in personal consumption. However, the outlook remained uncertain due to continued price increases, foreign exchange volatility and geopolitical risks.」

「During the current interim consolidated accounting period (1 February 2025 to 31 July 2025), Japan's economy remained on a moderate recovery track against the backdrop of improving employment and income conditions and increased inbound demand. However, conditions continued to require caution due to US trade policies, the unstable international situation including the situation in the Middle East, and persistently high raw-material and fuel prices.」

「The market environment surrounding our Group has shown a moderate economic recovery, supported by corporate investment in capital equipment and human resources and increased inbound consumption. However, difficult conditions have continued, with rising interest rates in financial markets and higher energy prices and inflation causing real wages to remain negative for 3 consecutive years. In addition, the market environment is expected to become even more uncertain as the global economy faces greater uncertainty due to the rise of protectionist economic policies originating in the United States.」

「During the current interim consolidated accounting period (1 February 2024 to 31 July 2024), Japan's economy remained on a moderate recovery track due to improving employment and income conditions and increased inbound demand, although the outlook remained uncertain amid unstable conditions overseas and soaring prices including raw-material and fuel prices.」

「During the cumulative first quarter of the current consolidated fiscal year (1 February 2024 to 30 April 2024), Japan's economy continued to normalise from the COVID-19 pandemic. Employment and income conditions showed signs of a moderate recovery, supported by increased inbound demand and other factors. However, the outlook remained uncertain due to the weakening yen caused by unstable conditions overseas and global monetary tightening, soaring prices including raw materials and fuel, and sluggish growth in real wages.」

「However, the outlook remained uncertain due to concerns over a downturn in the global economy against the backdrop of the prolonged situation in Ukraine, heightened tensions in the Middle East, expanding global inflation and the resulting monetary tightening.」

「During the cumulative third quarter of the current consolidated fiscal year (1 February 2023 to 31 October 2023), social and economic activity continued to normalise as COVID-19 restrictions were eased, and the economy entered a moderate recovery phase, supported also by the recovery in inbound demand. However, energy and raw-material costs soared due to the prolonged situation in Ukraine and the weakening yen, and prices continued to rise, leaving economic risks high and the outlook uncertain.」

「During the cumulative second quarter of the current consolidated fiscal year (1 February 2023 to 31 July 2023), Japan's economy entered a moderate recovery phase as activity restrictions imposed to prevent the spread of COVID-19 were lifted and, in May, COVID-19 was reclassified as a Class 5 disease under the Infectious Diseases Control Law. However, economic risks remained high due to soaring energy and raw-material costs resulting from the prolonged situation in Ukraine and the resulting rise in prices, leaving the outlook uncertain.」

「During the cumulative first quarter of the current consolidated fiscal year (1 February 2023 to 30 April 2023), Japan's economy entered a moderate recovery phase as activity restrictions imposed to prevent the spread of COVID-19 were lifted and brighter signs emerged in personal consumption. However, the outlook remained uncertain due to the prolonged situation in Ukraine, soaring crude oil and raw-material prices and other factors.」

「While remaining alert to the spread of COVID-19, economic activity gradually began to normalise as activity restrictions were eased. However, the outlook remained uncertain due to soaring crude oil and raw-material prices, the prolonged situation in Ukraine and sharp foreign exchange volatility.」

「During the cumulative second quarter of the current consolidated fiscal year (1 February 2022 to 31 July 2022), Japan's economy showed signs of a moderate recovery as restrictions on activities related to the spread of COVID-19 were lifted on 21 March and economic activity gradually moved toward normalisation. However, the outlook remained uncertain due to the subsequent resurgence of COVID-19 infections, further soaring crude oil and raw-material prices, the weakening yen and the prolonged situation in Ukraine.」

「As COVID-19 infections continued to spread, many regions became subject to priority preventive measures, restricting economic activity. The measures were lifted on 21 March, and although there were signs of a moderate recovery, the outlook remained uncertain due to the weakening yen, soaring crude oil and raw-material prices, and the impact of the situation in Ukraine.」

「The spread of new variants and soaring raw-material and transportation costs also left the outlook uncertain.」

「During the cumulative third quarter of the current consolidated fiscal year (1 February 2021 to 31 October 2021), the business environment remained difficult as the effects of the spread of COVID-19, which had continued since the previous year, persisted, while personal consumption was significantly constrained by repeated declarations of a state of emergency and the application of priority preventive measures. Although economic activity was beginning to normalise after the state of emergency and priority preventive measures were lifted nationwide from 1 October, concerns over a resurgence of infections had not been completely dispelled, leaving the outlook uncertain.」

「The spread of COVID-19, which had continued since the previous year, remained unabated. A second state of emergency was declared in January 2021 and a third in April, significantly restricting personal consumption and economic activity, among other effects, and conditions remained extremely difficult. The timing of the containment of the disease remained unforeseeable, and the outlook continued to be uncertain.」

「A second state of emergency was declared in January 2021, and the timing of the containment of COVID-19 remained unforeseeable, leaving the outlook uncertain.」

「Although economic activity began to resume after the state of emergency was lifted, the timing of the containment of COVID-19 remained unforeseeable, and the outlook continued to be uncertain.」

「During the cumulative second quarter of the current consolidated fiscal year (1 February 2020 to 31 July 2020), personal consumption declined amid the declaration of a state of emergency and requests to refrain from going out following the spread of COVID-19. The economy deteriorated rapidly and remained in an extremely difficult situation. Although economic activity began to resume after the state of emergency was lifted, conditions remained uncertain.」

「During the cumulative first quarter of the current consolidated fiscal year (1 February 2020 to 30 April 2020), Japan's economy remained uncertain as the global spread of COVID-19 caused stagnation across society and the economy as a whole, as well as sluggish personal consumption due to calls for people to refrain from going out.」

「During the consolidated fiscal year (1 February 2019 to 31 January 2020), personal consumption lacked strength amid a series of natural disasters and the increase in the consumption tax rate. In addition, concerns over a slowdown in the global economy remained due to developments surrounding trade issues, the UK's withdrawal from the EU, worsening conditions in the Middle East and other factors, leaving the outlook uncertain.」

「During the cumulative third quarter of the current consolidated fiscal year (1 February 2019 to 31 October 2019), Japan's economy continued to recover moderately as corporate earnings and employment conditions improved. However, the risk of weaker consumption following the consumption tax increase and frequent natural disasters heightened concerns over a domestic economic downturn. Overseas, concerns also remained over a deterioration in the global economy due to the prolonged US-China trade friction, the UK's withdrawal from the EU and other effects of the unstable international situation, leaving the outlook uncertain.」

「During the cumulative second quarter of the current consolidated fiscal year (1 February 2019 to 31 July 2019), Japan's economy continued to recover moderately against the backdrop of improving corporate earnings and employment conditions. However, overseas developments, including escalating US-China trade friction and the UK's withdrawal from the EU, raised concerns over a deterioration in the global economy due to the impact of an unstable international situation and other factors, leaving the outlook uncertain.」

「During the cumulative first quarter of the current consolidated fiscal year (1 February 2019 to 30 April 2019), Japan's economy continued to see improvement in corporate earnings and employment conditions. However, consumers remained strongly inclined to economise, while uncertainty in the global economy caused by the escalating US-China trade friction, the UK's withdrawal from the EU and other factors left the outlook uncertain.」

「During the cumulative third quarter of the current consolidated fiscal year (1 February 2018 to 31 October 2018), Japan's economy remained on a moderate recovery track against the backdrop of improving corporate earnings and employment conditions. However, concerns remained over the impact on the domestic economy of a series of natural disasters and the impact on overseas economies and financial markets of escalating US-China trade friction, leaving the outlook uncertain.」

「During the cumulative second quarter of the current consolidated fiscal year (1 February 2018 to 31 July 2018), Japan's economy remained on a moderate recovery track against the backdrop of improving corporate earnings and employment conditions. However, consumers remained strongly inclined to economise as real income struggled to grow due to adverse weather and rising prices, while uncertainty in overseas economies and volatility in financial markets also affected the economy, leaving the outlook uncertain.」

「During the cumulative first quarter of the current consolidated fiscal year (1 February 2018 to 30 April 2018), Japan's economy remained on a moderate recovery track as corporate earnings and employment conditions improved, with signs of a pickup in personal consumption. However, it continued to face an uncertain outlook partly because of uncertainty in overseas economies.」

「During the consolidated fiscal year (1 February 2017 to 31 January 2018), Japan's economy remained on a moderate recovery track against the backdrop of improving corporate earnings and employment and income conditions. However, the outlook remained uncertain due to sluggish growth in personal consumption and continuing concerns over political and economic developments overseas.」

「However, personal consumption had not yet achieved a full-fledged recovery. In addition, the outlook remained uncertain amid increasing uncertainty in the global economy due to the slowdown in emerging-market economies, particularly China, the UK's withdrawal from the EU, US presidential policies and other factors.」

「During the cumulative second quarter of the current consolidated fiscal year (1 February 2017 to 31 July 2017), Japan's economy remained on a moderate recovery track, supported in part by the effects of various government measures and continued improvement in employment and income conditions. However, concerns included personal consumption, which remained stagnant, and volatile foreign exchange rates and share prices caused by uncertainty in the international situation, including political tensions with neighbouring countries and concerns over the outlook for emerging-market economies, particularly China, leaving the outlook uncertain.」

「During the cumulative first quarter of the current consolidated fiscal year (1 February 2017 to 30 April 2017), Japan's economy entered a moderate recovery phase as corporate earnings and employment conditions improved against the backdrop of the government's economic and monetary policies. However, personal consumption lacked strength, and the outlook remained uncertain amid increasing uncertainty in overseas economies due to the UK's withdrawal from the EU, policies of the US president and other factors.」

「During the current consolidated fiscal year, Japan's economy remained on a moderate recovery track against the backdrop of the government's economic policies and the Bank of Japan's monetary easing measures. Personal consumption was broadly flat, while uncertainty increased due to the slowdown in the Chinese economy, the UK's withdrawal from the EU, policies of the Trump administration in the United States and other factors, leaving the outlook uncertain.」

「However, concerns remained over a downturn in the global economy caused by the slowdown in the Chinese economy and the UK's withdrawal from the EU. Domestically, consumers remained strongly inclined to economise amid sluggish consumer sentiment, and personal consumption continued to be weak, leaving the outlook difficult and uncertain.」

「During the cumulative second quarter of the current consolidated fiscal year (1 February 2016 to 31 July 2016), Japan's economy remained on a moderate recovery track as a result of the government's economic and monetary policies. However, concerns remained over a downturn in the global economy caused by the slowdown in emerging-market and resource-rich economies and the UK's withdrawal from the EU. Domestically, consumers remained strongly inclined to economise amid sluggish consumer sentiment, and personal consumption continued to be weak, leaving the outlook difficult and uncertain.」