Risk of weaker personal consumption due to trade policy and inflation
First written in FY2025-H1. 1 of 3 entries say "Restated". Latest entry: FY2026-H1.
Intermestic moved to the "Worse" side of this theme in 2026, 6 years after the typical company in this theme (2020).
The whole theme swung hardest in 2022: 106 of 135 companies on the "Worse" side.
76 other companies' latest entry also says "Worsened".
- FY2026-H1WorsenedAnnual report
「In the global economy, in addition to uncertainty surrounding U.S. trade policy, geopolitical risks such as escalating tensions in the Middle East remain a concern and are factors affecting Japan’s economy. Fluctuations in international resource and raw material prices, as well as trends in foreign exchange and financial and capital markets, also remain concerns, and the outlook for domestic and overseas economic conditions remains unpredictable.」
In addition to the previously cited concerns about U.S. trade policy, inflation and financial market uncertainty, this adds geopolitical risks such as the situation in the Middle East and concerns about resource, raw material and foreign exchange movements, broadening the scope of macroeconomic risks. - 2026-05-12RestatedEarnings
「Meanwhile, the effects of changes in U.S. trade policy continued, while crude oil prices rose amid heightened tensions in the Middle East. Concerns about the resulting inflation caused consumer sentiment to remain cautious, and personal consumption showed signs of stagnation in some areas.」
Changes in trade policy, inflation and concerns about downward pressure on personal consumption continue to be cited as external factors. - FY2025-H1First statedAnnual report
「At the same time, uncertainty surrounding U.S. trade policy and the continuing rise in prices pose risks of downward pressure on Japan’s economy through their effects on personal consumption, including a deterioration in consumer sentiment. Close attention must also be paid to fluctuations in financial and capital markets, and the outlook for the domestic and overseas economies remains uncertain.」
U.S. trade policy, inflation and fluctuations in financial and capital markets are identified for the first time in the economic-environment discussion as external risks that could weigh on personal consumption and the economy.