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Renaissance (2378) · RiskMitigatedLatest Revision to earnings forecast (2026-11-10): "Worsened"

Dependence on Membership Fee Revenue and Risk of Increased Cancellations

First written in FY2016. 16 of 30 entries say "Mitigated", first in FY2022-Q3. Latest entry: 2026-11-10.

30entries
11years
5from disclosures
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How it moved
ProgressHeldSoftenedWorseRestatedFY2016 – FY2019WorsenedFY2020 – FY2022-Q2MitigatedFY2022-Q3 – 2026-11-102016: 320162017: 220172018: 020182019: 120192020: 320202021: 320212022: 420222023: 420232024: 220242025: 220252026: 62026
Same theme, other companies
Dependence of Performance on Fluctuations in Membership Numbers and Monthly Membership Fee RevenueA theme 2 companies write about · 2 as a headwind · 0 as a tailwind

Renaissance moved to the "Worse" side of this theme in 2020.

0 other companies' latest entry also says "Worsened".

Ridges = years it wrote progress, valleys = years it wrote worse. Most hopeful companies at the back. Drag to turn, scroll to zoom, right-drag to pan. On a phone, two fingers turn and pinch to zoom; one finger scrolls the page.
Full recordFilings, disclosures and news, newest first
  1. FY2026MitigatedAnnual report

    「As a result, revenue from the sports club business was ¥55.145 billion, up 2.8% year on year, and enrolled membership at the end of the current consolidated fiscal year was 442,085, up 1.7% year on year.」

    Enrolled sports club membership increased 1.7% year on year. The risk of declining membership eased as new memberships recovered from June and monthly corporate memberships for companies expanded.
  2. FY2026-H1MitigatedAnnual report

    「Membership increased as new sports club memberships from June through September exceeded the previous year's levels for 4 consecutive months and remained strong.」

    New memberships exceeded the previous year's level for 4 consecutive months, indicating that the risks related to declining membership and increased cancellations were moving toward recovery. As of the fiscal year-end, enrolled membership was 454,484, up 2.1% year on year.
  3. FY2025MitigatedAnnual report

    「Our long-term vision is to be a “health solutions company that enriches life in the 100-year lifespan era,” and we operate businesses serving not only ordinary individual consumers but also corporations, including companies and health insurance societies, as well as local governments. We also provide health and wellness support that does not require visits to our facilities, including our home fitness business, which focuses on developing and selling online lesson services and home exercise equipment. These initiatives reduce the risk of a decline in revenue resulting from a decrease in membership.」

    Diversifying revenue sources through businesses serving corporations and local governments, online services and home fitness was explicitly identified as a response to the risk of declining membership.
  4. FY2025-H1MitigatedAnnual report

    「Enrolled membership at the end of the first half of the current consolidated fiscal year was 503,852, including 62,285 online members, up 28.9% year on year.」

    Although some weakness was seen in the number of new members, enrolled membership increased 28.9% year on year due to the increase in Oasis members, new corporate plans and a decline in cancellations, among other factors.
  5. FY2024-Q3MitigatedAnnual report

    「Enrolled membership at the end of the third quarter of the current consolidated fiscal year was 392,081, including 49,268 online members, up 5.9% year on year.」

    Enrolled membership was 392,081, including 49,268 online members, maintaining a 5.9% year-on-year increase. Recovery from the period of declining membership is continuing.
  6. FY2024-Q2MitigatedAnnual report

    「Enrolled membership at the end of the second quarter of the current consolidated fiscal year was 390,918, including 45,620 online members, up 8.3% year on year.」

    Enrolled membership was 390,918, up 8.3% year on year, and online membership also increased to 45,620. The recovery from the period of declining membership is continuing.
  7. FY2024-Q1MitigatedAnnual report

    「In the sports club business, new fitness memberships and enrolled membership remained steady, and enrolled membership at the end of the first quarter of the current consolidated fiscal year was 378,912, including 41,361 online members, up 10.5% year on year and above plan.」

    Enrolled membership was 378,912, including 41,361 online members, up 10.5% year on year and above plan. The recovery from the period of declining membership is continuing.
  8. FY2023MitigatedAnnual report

    「Enrolled membership at 31 March 2023 was 373,615, including 36,936 online members, up 12.2% year on year.」

    Enrolled membership increased 12.2% year on year. Including 36,936 online members, the risk of declining membership associated with dependence on membership revenue eased from the previous fiscal year.
  9. FY2023-Q3MitigatedAnnual report

    「The number of new fitness members remained strong, and enrolled membership at the end of the third quarter of the current consolidated fiscal year was 370,173, including 32,818 online members, up 12.7% year on year.」

    Enrolled membership was 370,173, including 32,818 online members, improving to a 12.7% year-on-year increase. The easing of the risk of declining membership associated with dependence on membership revenue is continuing.
  10. FY2023-Q2MitigatedAnnual report

    「In the sports club business, the number of new fitness members remained strong, and enrolled membership at the end of the second quarter of the current consolidated fiscal year was 360,848, including 25,305 online members, up 11.3% year on year and above the previous year's level.」

    Enrolled membership was 360,848, including 25,305 online members, improving to an 11.3% year-on-year increase. Recovery from the period of declining membership is continuing.
  11. FY2023-Q1MitigatedAnnual report

    「The number of enrolled members at the end of the first quarter of the current consolidated fiscal year was 342,981, including 21,173 online members, up 11.2% year on year and above plan.」

    Enrolled membership turned to an 11.2% year-on-year increase, indicating an improvement from the decline in the previous fiscal year associated with dependence on membership revenue.
  12. FY2022MitigatedAnnual report

    「The number of members enrolled at our facilities at the end of the current consolidated fiscal year was 332,901, including 17,297 online members, up 0.7% year on year.」

    Enrolled membership turned from a decline in the previous fiscal year to a 0.7% year-on-year increase in the current fiscal year, and the membership base, including 17,297 online members, was disclosed.
  13. FY2022-Q3MitigatedAnnual report

    「Following the lifting of the state of emergency, the number of users gradually recovered, and revenue was ¥27.505 billion, up 28.1% year on year. The number of new members in the third quarter of the current consolidated fiscal year exceeded both the previous fiscal year and the fiscal year before that, which was before the COVID-19 pandemic, and membership excluding members on temporary leave also increased from the previous fiscal year at the end of the third quarter of the current consolidated fiscal year.」

    While the number of members excluding those on temporary leave and the number of new members during the third quarter recovered, total enrolled membership was 328,572, down 1.4% year on year.
  14. FY2022-Q2WorsenedAnnual report

    「However, the business environment remains unpredictable, as repeated waves of infections have delayed the recovery in enrolled membership. As a result, total enrolled membership at the end of the first half of the current consolidated fiscal year was 324,252, including 10,362 online members, down 4.4% year on year.」

    The recovery in membership was delayed by the spread of infections, and total enrolled membership fell 4.4% year on year.
  15. FY2022-Q1WorsenedAnnual report

    「As a result of these initiatives, the total number of enrolled sports club members at the end of the first quarter of the current consolidated fiscal year was 308,545, down 13.3% year on year.」

    Total enrolled sports club membership was 308,545, down 13.3% year on year. It also declined from 330,671 at the end of the previous fiscal year, indicating that the risk of declining membership associated with dependence on membership revenue persists.
  16. FY2021WorsenedAnnual report

    「Our group's business performance relies heavily on membership revenue from its comprehensive sports club operations. Accordingly, attracting new members, as well as curbing cancellations, is important in securing recurring and stable revenue. The number of enrolled sports club members was 330,671, down 18.3% from the previous fiscal year.」

    Against a backdrop of dependence on membership revenue, enrolled sports club membership fell to 330,671, down 18.3% from the previous fiscal year.
  17. FY2021-Q2WorsenedAnnual report

    「As a result, the total number of enrolled sports club members at the end of the first half of the current consolidated fiscal year was 339,283, down 19.5% year on year.」

    Enrolled membership was 339,283, down 19.5% year on year, with the decline widening from the 13.9% year-on-year decrease in the first quarter. The risk of increased cancellations and temporary suspensions associated with dependence on membership revenue materialized further.
  18. FY2021-Q1MaterialisedAnnual report

    「Due to the increase in sports club members taking temporary leave or cancelling their memberships, and the decline in new members before reopening, the number of enrolled sports club members at the end of the first quarter of the current consolidated fiscal year was 355,963, down 13.9% year on year.」

    The membership decline associated with dependence on membership revenue materialized as a 13.9% year-on-year decrease in enrolled members.
  19. FY2020MaterialisedAnnual report

    「The number of members enrolled at sports clubs was 404,906, down 1.6% from the previous fiscal year.」

    The risk of declining membership arising from dependence on membership revenue materialized in the form of actual results amid the impact of COVID-19.
  20. FY2019RestatedAnnual report

    「Our group's business performance relies heavily on membership revenue from its comprehensive sports club operations. Accordingly, attracting new members, as well as curbing cancellations, is important in securing recurring and stable revenue.」

    The recognition that dependence on membership revenue, attracting new members and curbing cancellations support stable revenue is reiterated.
  21. FY2017RestatedAnnual report

    「Our group's membership-based sports club operations rely heavily on membership revenue. Accordingly, attracting new members, as well as curbing cancellations, is an important factor in securing recurring and stable revenue.」

    The explanation that dependence on membership revenue, acquiring new members and curbing cancellations are factors supporting stable revenue is repeated.
  22. FY2017-Q3RestatedAnnual report

    「The sports club business relies heavily on membership revenue. Accordingly, attracting new members, as well as curbing cancellations, is an important factor in securing recurring and stable revenue.」

    The explanation that dependence on membership revenue, acquiring new members and curbing cancellations are factors supporting stable revenue is repeated.
  23. FY2017-Q2RestatedAnnual report

    「The sports club business relies heavily on membership revenue. Accordingly, attracting new members, as well as curbing cancellations, is an important factor in securing recurring and stable revenue.」

    The explanation that dependence on membership revenue, acquiring new members and curbing cancellations are factors supporting stable revenue is repeated.
  24. FY2017-Q1RestatedAnnual report

    「The sports club business relies heavily on membership revenue. Accordingly, attracting new members, as well as curbing cancellations, is an important factor in securing recurring and stable revenue.」

    Dependence on membership revenue and the importance of new memberships and curbing cancellations are cited again.
  25. FY2016First statedAnnual report

    「Our group's membership-based sports club operations rely heavily on membership revenue. Accordingly, attracting new members, as well as curbing cancellations, is an important factor in securing recurring and stable revenue.」

    Acquiring members and curbing cancellations are explicitly identified as key factors in securing stable revenue.
Moved together

"Development of new-format and rehabilitation facilities" moved the same way as this thread, in the same document, in 15 of its 30 moves.

151414141313★123456
  1. ★This thread
  2. 1Development of new-format and rehabilitation facilities15×
  3. 2Strengthening Profitability of the Sports Club Business14×
  4. 3New Club Openings and Renovation and Upgrading of Existing Clubs14×
  5. 4Health Promotion Partnerships with Local Governments and Companies14×
  6. 5Multi-format facility network in Japan and overseas13×
  7. 6Reforming a Fixed-Cost-Based Earnings Structure and Creating New Value-Added Services for Sports Clubs13×

★ is this thread; numbers match the list above. The number on a line is how many documents both moved the same way in; lines between the other threads count the documents they moved together in too. Threads that move together often sit closer.

When this could move next
Renaissance's next results are scheduled for 2026-11-10. Read the earnings preview It last moved in the Revision to earnings forecast of 2026-11-10: "Worsened".
News
No news is linked to this thread yet. When an article touches it, it will appear here by date.
Dependence on Membership Fee Revenue and Risk of Increased Cancellations | RENAISSANCE,INCORPORATED (2378) | Komori