Risk of Demand Fluctuations in the Condominium Construction Market
First written in FY2016. 18 of 37 entries say "Worsened", first in FY2019-Q1. Latest entry: 2026-10-15.
First-corporation moved to the "Worse" side of this theme in 2020, 5 years before the typical company in this theme (2025).
3 other companies' latest entry also says "Worsened".
- 2026-10-15WorsenedEarnings
「2026年上半期のマンション供給件数は、7,989戸（同0.8％減）となり、５年連続の減少傾向となっております。」
東京圏のマンション供給件数が前年同期比で減少し、減少傾向が5年連続となった。一方、引き合い案件が活況で、受注・施工物件の確保は可能との見方も併記している。 - FY2026WorsenedAnnual report
「Condominium housing starts in the Tokyo metropolitan area, the group's primary business area, totaled 40,305 units in calendar 2025, down 21.0% year on year. Condominium supply in calendar 2025 totaled 21,962 units, down 4.5% year on year, marking the fourth consecutive annual decline.」
Housing starts in the Tokyo metropolitan area fell 21.0% year on year and supply fell 4.5%, with supply declining for the fourth consecutive year. - FY2026-H1WorsenedAnnual report
「Meanwhile, condominium supply from January through November 2025 totaled 16,494 units, down 4.0% year on year, marking a declining trend for the fourth consecutive year. For calendar 2025, condominium supply is expected to be approximately 23,000 units, condominium housing starts to be at roughly the same level as in calendar 2024, and unsold inventory to remain in the 5,000-unit range, also roughly the same as in calendar 2024. In addition, inquiries remain strong, and there is ample room to expand the group's approximately 4% share of the Tokyo metropolitan market. Accordingly, the company believes that the group can secure orders and construction projects for the foreseeable future.」
Condominium supply in the Tokyo metropolitan area declined 4.0% year on year, marking a declining trend for the fourth consecutive year, and full-year 2025 supply was projected at approximately 23,000 units. While indicating a shrinking market, the company stated that orders could be secured based on strong inquiry activity and a market share of approximately 4%. - FY2025-H1RestatedAnnual report
「For calendar 2025, condominium supply is expected to be approximately 26,000 units, condominium starts at about the same level as calendar 2024, and inventories for sale in the 5,000-unit range, also at about the same level as calendar 2024. Inquiries for projects remain brisk, and the group's market share in the Tokyo metropolitan area is approximately 3%, leaving ample room for expansion. Accordingly, the group believes it can secure orders and properties for construction in the near term.」
While showing the decline in supply, the company also states that orders can be secured based on the 2025 market outlook, strong inquiry activity and a market share of approximately 3%. - FY2025-H1WorsenedAnnual report
「Meanwhile, condominium supply from January through November 2024 totaled 17,184 units, down 17.8% year on year, marking a declining trend for the third consecutive year.」
Condominium supply in the Tokyo metropolitan area fell 17.8% year on year, indicating a declining trend for the third consecutive year. Market indicators for demand volatility risk have deteriorated. - FY2024-Q3WorsenedAnnual report
「Meanwhile, condominium supply in calendar 2023 fell short of the initial forecast, declining 9.1% year on year to 26,886 units. This was the second consecutive annual decline.」
Condominium supply in the Tokyo metropolitan area totaled 26,886 units, down 9.1% year on year and below the initial forecast. The deterioration in demand volatility exposure has been updated as a second consecutive decline. - FY2024-Q2WorsenedAnnual report
「Meanwhile, condominium supply from January through November 2023 totaled 20,911 units, down 12.2% year on year, marking a declining trend for the second consecutive period. It is expected to fall short of the 2023 full-year forecast of 30,000 units and come in at approximately 28,000 units.」
Condominium supply in the Tokyo metropolitan area fell 12.2% year on year, indicating a declining trend for the second consecutive period. The full-year 2023 supply forecast was also revised downward from 30,000 units to approximately 28,000 units. - FY2024-Q1WorsenedAnnual report
「Meanwhile, condominium supply in the first half of 2023 totaled 10,502 units, down 17.4% year on year, marking a declining trend for the second consecutive year.」
Condominium supply in the Tokyo metropolitan area fell 17.4% year on year, indicating a declining trend for the second consecutive year. Demand volatility exposure has deteriorated quantitatively. - FY2023WorsenedAnnual report
「Meanwhile, condominium supply in calendar 2022 fell short of the initial forecast, declining 12.1% year on year to 29,569 units. This was the first decline in two years.」
Condominium supply in the Tokyo metropolitan area totaled 29,569 units, down 12.1% year on year and below the initial forecast. The deterioration in demand and market volatility risk has been updated based on full-year results. - FY2023-Q3WorsenedAnnual report
「Meanwhile, condominium supply in calendar 2022 fell short of the initial forecast, declining 12.1% year on year to 29,569 units. This was the first decline in two years.」
Condominium supply in the Tokyo metropolitan area fell 12.1% year on year, missing the initial forecast, and the deterioration in demand volatility exposure has been updated quantitatively. - FY2023-Q2WorsenedAnnual report
「Meanwhile, condominium supply from January through November 2022 declined to 23,812 units, down 11.8% year on year, despite some recovery from the continuing impact of COVID-19. It is expected to fall short of the initial full-year 2022 forecast of 34,000 units and come in at approximately 30,800 units.」
Condominium supply in the Tokyo metropolitan area fell 11.8% year on year, and the full-year 2022 supply forecast was revised downward from the initial forecast of 34,000 units to approximately 30,800 units. Although the risks have been quantified, the company explains that it can secure orders and construction projects for 2023. - FY2023-Q1Updated first-half market indicatorsAnnual report
「Condominium housing starts in the Tokyo metropolitan area, our primary business area, comprising Tokyo, Kanagawa, Saitama and Chiba prefectures, totaled 25,617 units in the first half of 2022, down 10.6% year on year. Condominium supply in the first half of 2022 totaled 12,712 units, down 4.3% year on year, but had recovered toward pre-pandemic levels.」
Both condominium housing starts and supply in the Tokyo metropolitan area declined year on year, while supply was described as having recovered toward pre-pandemic levels. - FY2022RestatedAnnual report
「Condominium housing starts in calendar 2021 totaled 49,962 units, down 7.3% year on year and below the forecast for 2021. Meanwhile, condominium supply in calendar 2021 reversed the impact of COVID-19 in the previous year, increasing 23.5% year on year to 33,636 units and exceeding 30,000 units for the first time in two years.」
The company continues to disclose market conditions in the Tokyo metropolitan area characterized by housing starts below forecast alongside recovering supply. - FY2022-Q3Construction starts fell short of expectations while supply recoveredAnnual report
「Condominium housing starts in the Tokyo metropolitan area, our primary business area, totaled 49,962 units in calendar 2021, down 7.3% year on year, below the forecast for 2021. Meanwhile, condominium supply in calendar 2021 reversed the impact of COVID-19 in the previous year, increasing 23.5% year on year to 33,636 units and exceeding 30,000 units for the first time in two years.」
Housing starts in the Tokyo metropolitan area fell 7.3% year on year and came in below forecast, while supply recovered to 33,636 units, up 23.5% year on year. The coexistence of declining housing starts and recovering supply has been updated. - FY2022-Q2Declining construction starts coincided with recovering supplyAnnual report
「Under these conditions, condominium housing starts in the Tokyo metropolitan area, our primary business area, comprising Tokyo, Kanagawa, Saitama and Chiba prefectures, totaled 46,182 units from January through November 2021, down 9.3% year on year and below the initial full-year 2021 forecast of 60,000 units. Meanwhile, condominium supply from January through November 2021 rose sharply to 26,987 units, up 35.8% year on year, as sales activities amid the continuing COVID-19 pandemic showed signs of recovery. Full-year supply is expected to reach the initial 2021 forecast of 32,000 units.」
While housing starts in the Tokyo metropolitan area declined year on year and remained below the initial forecast, supply increased 35.8% year on year, indicating that the initial forecast is likely to be achieved. - FY2022-Q1Market recovery confirmedAnnual report
「Condominium supply in the first half of 2021 increased sharply to 13,277 units, up 77.3% year on year, indicating a steady recovery from the previous year, when the impact of COVID-19 was pronounced.」
Condominium supply in the Tokyo metropolitan area, which had declined sharply in the prior-year period, increased 77.3% year on year, providing updated quantitative evidence of a market recovery trend. - FY2021-Q3WorsenedAnnual report
「Meanwhile, condominium supply in calendar 2020 fell to 27,228 units, down 12.8% year on year, largely due to the decline in visitors to model rooms and other facilities resulting from requests to refrain from going out. This was the first time since 1992 that supply fell below 30,000 units.」
Condominium supply in the Tokyo metropolitan area fell 12.8% year on year to 27,228 units, dropping below 30,000 units for the first time since 1992. The deterioration in demand and market volatility exposure has been updated quantitatively. A recovery to approximately 32,000 units is expected in 2021. - FY2021-Q2RestatedAnnual report
「Meanwhile, condominium supply from January through November 2020 fell sharply to 19,874 units, down 20.0% year on year, largely due to the impact of requests to suspend business operations under the state of emergency. Full-year 2020 supply is expected to be approximately 24,400 units. In 2021, condominium housing starts are expected to recover to approximately 60,000 units, condominium supply to approximately 32,000 units, and unsold inventory to the 6,000-unit range, returning to 2019 levels.」
Although 2020 supply was weak, down 20.0% year on year with full-year supply forecast at approximately 24,400 units, a recovery to 2019 levels is expected in 2021. No new risks or material changes to business and other risks have been identified. - FY2021-Q1WorsenedAnnual report
「Against this backdrop, condominium construction starts in the Tokyo metropolitan area, the company’s main operating area, totaled 27,094 units in the first half of 2020, down 11.8% year on year, a weak result. Condominium supply in the first half of 2020 also fell sharply to 7,497 units, down 44.2%. For 2020 (calendar year), condominium supply, initially forecast at 32,000 units, is now expected to decline substantially to approximately 20,000 units. However, construction starts are not expected to decline as sharply, from the initial forecast of 57,000 units to approximately 54,000 units. Given that inquiries remain active and the company’s share of the Tokyo metropolitan area is approximately 2%, leaving ample room for growth, the company believes it can secure orders and construction projects for the foreseeable future.」
Due to the impact of COVID-19, the number of units supplied in the Tokyo metropolitan area in the first half declined 44.2% year on year, and the full-year supply forecast was reduced from 32,000 units to approximately 20,000 units. The full-year forecast for housing starts was also revised downward from 57,000 units to approximately 54,000 units. - FY2020WorsenedAnnual report
「Regarding trends in 2020 (calendar year), condominium supply through May 2020 had fallen significantly below the previous year due to the spread of the novel coronavirus, and is expected to fall substantially below the initial forecast of 32,000 units.」
Due to the spread of the novel coronavirus, condominium supply is expected to fall substantially below the initial forecast, worsening exposure to demand and market volatility. - FY2020-Q3RestatedAnnual report
「Condominium supply in 2019 (calendar year) declined for the first time in 3 years to 31,238 units, down 15.9% year on year, as all areas except Saitama fell below the previous year.」
Construction starts in the Tokyo metropolitan area recovered to 59,406 units, up 7.6% year on year, while supply declined to 31,238 units, down 15.9%, updating the coexistence of a recovery in construction starts and a decline in supply. - FY2020-Q2Construction recovery coincided with declining supplyAnnual report
「Meanwhile, condominium supply from January through November 2019 was 24,846 units, down 16.3% year on year, as sales periods lengthened due to rising prices. Full-year supply in 2019 is expected to be approximately 31,300 units, below the initial forecast of 37,000 units.」
Construction starts recovered, increasing 10.3% year on year, and are expected to total approximately 59,000 units for the full year. Meanwhile, against a backdrop of longer sales periods due to rising prices, supply declined 16.3% year on year and the full-year outlook fell from 37,000 units to approximately 31,300 units. The risk disclosure itself stated that there were no significant changes. - FY2020-Q1RestatedAnnual report
「Against this backdrop, condominium construction starts in the Tokyo metropolitan area, the company’s main operating area, totaled 30,731 units in the first half of 2019, up 18.3% year on year, indicating a recovery trend. Meanwhile, condominium supply in the first half of 2019 was 13,436 units, down 13.3% year on year, a weak result.」
Construction starts in the Tokyo metropolitan area recovered, increasing 18.3% year on year, while supply declined 13.3%. Because the disclosure stated that there were no newly arising or significant changes in business and other risks, the risk status was marked REAFFIRMED. - FY2019-Q3RestatedAnnual report
「In the Tokyo metropolitan area (Tokyo, Kanagawa, Saitama and Chiba prefectures), the company’s main operating area, condominium construction starts in 2018 (calendar year) were 55,195 units, down 14.8% year on year and below the initial expectation of maintaining 60,000 units for 8 consecutive years. This reflected factors including intensified land acquisitions by developers, persistently high condominium prices and concern about a consumption tax increase. Meanwhile, condominium supply in 2018 was 37,132 units, up 3.4% year on year, marking a slight increase for the second consecutive year.」
Condominium construction starts in the Tokyo metropolitan area in 2018 totaled 55,195 units, down 14.8% year on year, while supply totaled 37,132 units, up 3.4%. Because the business and other risks themselves were stated to have undergone no newly arising or significant changes, the risk status was marked REAFFIRMED. - FY2019-Q2WorsenedAnnual report
「In the Tokyo metropolitan area (Tokyo, Kanagawa, Saitama and Chiba prefectures), the company’s main operating area, condominium construction starts from January through November 2018 were 50,122 units, down 17.4% year on year, a weak result partly reflecting the intensification of land acquisitions by developers in the previous year. Full-year construction starts in 2018 are expected to be approximately 54,000 units, down from the initially expected level in the 60,000-unit range for the eighth consecutive year. Meanwhile, condominium supply from January through November 2018 was 29,670 units, up 0.9% year on year, and full-year supply is expected to be approximately 34,000 units, a decrease of approximately 5.3% from the previous year. In 2019 (calendar year), condominium supply is expected to be approximately 37,000 units and sales inventory is expected to remain stable in the 6,000-unit range. Given that the company’s share of the Tokyo metropolitan area is approximately 2%, leaving ample room for growth, the company believes it can secure orders and construction projects for the foreseeable future.」
Condominium construction starts in the Tokyo metropolitan area declined 17.4% year on year, the full-year 2018 outlook fell from the 60,000-unit range to approximately 54,000 units, and the supply outlook changed to a 5.3% year-on-year decline. While exposure to demand volatility associated with market size has worsened further on the figures, the company explained that it could secure orders for the foreseeable future based on its outlook for 2019 supply and inventory and its approximately 2% market share. - FY2019-Q1WorsenedAnnual report
「Construction starts in the first half of 2018 were 25,980 units, down 34.7% year on year, a weak result. Although a recovery trend is expected in the second half, the decline in the first half is expected to weigh on the full year, with construction starts in 2018 forecast at approximately 58,000 units rather than the initially expected level in the 60,000-unit range for the eighth consecutive year.」
While the risk disclosure itself indicated no newly arising or significant changes, condominium construction starts in the Tokyo metropolitan area declined 34.7% year on year, and the full-year outlook fell from the 60,000-unit range to approximately 58,000 units. - FY2018-Q3RestatedAnnual report
「Construction starts in 2017 (calendar year) totaled 64,755 units, essentially unchanged year on year, and are expected to remain at a similar level in 2018, staying in the 60,000-unit range for 8 consecutive years. Meanwhile, condominium supply in 2017 was 35,898 units, up 0.4% year on year, partly because developers restrained supply. Supply in 2018 is expected to be 38,000 units, approximately 5.9% above the previous year, indicating a recovery trend.」
The company updated the number of condominium construction starts and supply in the Tokyo metropolitan area and the outlook for 2018. It stated that construction starts would remain at a high level and supply would be on a recovery trend. It stated that there were no newly arising or significant changes in the risks themselves. - FY2018-Q2RestatedAnnual report
「Meanwhile, condominium supply from January through November 2017 was 29,418 units, up 2.3% year on year, as developers restrained supply. Full-year supply is expected to be approximately 36,400 units, an increase of approximately 1.8% from the previous year.」
The company updated the number of condominium construction starts and supply in the Tokyo metropolitan area, together with the full-year outlook. It stated that both construction starts and supply were expected to exceed the previous year. It stated that there were no newly arising or significant changes in the business and other risks themselves. - FY2018-Q1RestatedAnnual report
「In the Tokyo metropolitan area (Tokyo, Kanagawa, Saitama and Chiba prefectures), the company’s main operating area, condominium construction starts in the first half of 2017 totaled 39,770 units, up 6.3% year on year, and are expected to remain in the 60,000-unit range for the full year for the seventh consecutive year. Meanwhile, supply increased slightly to 14,730 units, up 1.9%, as developers restrained supply. Full-year supply is expected to be approximately 38,000 units, an increase of approximately 6.2% year on year, indicating a gradual recovery trend.」
The company updated the number of condominium construction starts and supply in the Tokyo metropolitan area, together with the full-year outlook, and stated that the market was on a gradual recovery trend. It stated that there were no newly arising or significant changes in business and other risks. - FY2017-Q3RestatedAnnual report
「Condominium supply in 2016 (calendar year) was 35,772 units, down 11.6% year on year. Supply in 2017 (calendar year) is expected to be 38,000 units, approximately 6.2% above the previous year, indicating a recovery trend. Construction starts in 2016 (calendar year) totaled 64,769 units, up 2.7% year on year and increasing for the second consecutive year. Construction starts in January 2017 were also 8,952 units, the highest level in 3 years and 8 months.」
The figures update the decline in condominium supply and increase in construction starts in the Tokyo metropolitan area in 2016, together with the forecast recovery in supply in 2017. Because the disclosure states that there were no newly arising or significant changes in business and other risks, the status was marked REAFFIRMED. - FY2017-Q2RestatedAnnual report
「In the Tokyo metropolitan area (Tokyo, Kanagawa, Saitama and Chiba prefectures), the company’s operating area, condominium supply from January through November 2016 was 28,765 units, down 16.0% year on year. Full-year supply is expected to be approximately 35,700 units, a projected decrease of approximately 11.7% year on year. Meanwhile, construction starts, another indicator, totaled 55,247 units from January through October 2016, up 1.5% year on year and essentially flat.」
The figures update the decline in condominium supply and the essentially flat number of construction starts in the Tokyo metropolitan area. Because the disclosure states that there were no newly arising or significant changes in business and other risks, the risk status was marked REAFFIRMED. - FY2017-Q1RestatedAnnual report
「In the Tokyo metropolitan area (Tokyo, Kanagawa, Saitama and Chiba prefectures), condominium supply in the first half of 2016 (January to June) was 14,454 units, down 19.8% year on year. Full-year supply is expected to be approximately 37,000 units, a projected decrease of approximately 8.5% from the previous year. Meanwhile, another indicator, construction starts, totaled 37,426 units in the first half of 2016, down 1.3% year on year and essentially flat.」
The figures show a decline in condominium supply and a slight decrease in construction starts in the Tokyo metropolitan area. Because the disclosure states that there were no newly arising or significant changes in business and other risks, the risk status was marked REAFFIRMED. - FY2016First statedAnnual report
「The Company specializes in the condominium construction business and is affected by property development trends among condominium developers. If condominium construction starts or demand decline as a result, the Company’s construction contract orders and real estate transaction volume may decrease.」
The Company recognizes risks that changes in developers’ activities, economic conditions, interest rates, land prices and housing demand may affect orders and real estate transactions.