Concerns are growing that volatility in the U.S. stock market will increase toward the end of 2026, with investors focused on the risks posed by the U.S. midterm elections, uncertainty over interest rates and tensions in the Middle East.
Concerns are spreading that volatility risks in the U.S. stock market are rising, prompting investors to increase their use of options for hedging. The possibility of higher volatility toward the end of 2026 is being discussed.
The VIX is attracting attention as an indicator of whether volatility is relatively cheap or expensive, and its role as a measure of expected market volatility over the next 30 days has been explained. Volatility is considered more likely to rise after the summer and into the autumn.
Nomura strategists described the U.S. midterm elections, interest-rate risk and an escalation of fighting in the Middle East as a “trinity of downside risks,” and pointed to the need for hedging against the backdrop of investment funds returning to the stock market.
The discussion also referred to movements in the MOVE index and credit markets, explaining that there are signs of tensions in the bond market spreading to the stock market. It was also noted that some of the uncertainty could be resolved once the results are known.