FX and Foreign Exchange Market Indicators and Forecasts to Watch: Thursday, 20 August ■ Attention will focus on “expectations for U.S. monetary policy, following the release of the previous FOMC meeting minutes yesterday,” “developments in U.S. long-term interest rates, following the U.S. Treasury’s announcement yesterday that it would increase the scale of its U.S. Treasury buybacks,” and “the direction of the U.S. dollar, Japanese yen and euro.”

The key factors to watch today are expectations for U.S. monetary policy and developments in long-term interest rates. The focus will be on how the contents of the FOMC minutes released yesterday affect investors’ expectations for rate hikes. At the same time, news that the Treasury has increased the scale of its U.S. Treasury buybacks is expected to influence the direction of long-term interest rates.

The direction of the dollar-yen and euro/U.S. dollar, representing the European currency pair, will be the market’s main focus. Depending on developments in the New York market, dollar-selling or dollar-buying flows could strengthen, with trading expected to center on the ¥159 range and the low ¥1.16 range.

Today’s economic indicators are expected to center on U.S. releases, including initial jobless claims, the Philadelphia Fed Business Conditions Index and the Leading Economic Index. Outside the United States, attention will also be paid to developments in Australian employment data and Bank of Japan auctions.

Although the factors affecting the foreign exchange market are wide-ranging, the main themes can be distilled into three areas: “the direction of the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy,” “developments in long-term interest rates” and “the direction of the dollar-yen and European currencies.” Market trends could change depending on upcoming releases.