CFTC data showed net long U.S. dollar positions expanding to more than 400,000 contracts as of 13 October. Net short positions in major currencies other than the yen widened, with net shorts in the Australian dollar and pound sterling reaching record levels. The analysis suggests that U.S. dollar buying may have been driven by global trends in long-term interest rates.
According to statistics from the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), net long U.S. dollar positions across 5 non-U.S.-dollar currencies had expanded to more than 400,000 contracts as of 13 October. This suggests that concerns over excessive U.S. dollar buying may be increasing.
Meanwhile, the 4 currencies other than the yen were almost all net short, with net shorts in the Australian dollar and pound sterling expanding particularly sharply to record levels. This has led to the view that the scope for further U.S. dollar buying against the Australian dollar and pound sterling has become limited.
The rise in long-term interest rates accelerated sharply from mid-September, and it has been suggested that global trends in long-term rates may have supported U.S. dollar buying. There are also indications that the rise in rates leveled off after the start of October, and attention is focused on developments ahead.
The continuation of exceptionally unusual yen buying is also attracting attention. The yen remained net long amid the rise in long-term interest rates since September, and some have pointed out that developments in the yen-dollar exchange rate are consistent with Secretary Bessent's (ベッセント) policy to correct yen depreciation.