In the first half of 2026, Japan's exports were surpassed by those of South Korea and Taiwan for the first time, putting the expanding demand for advanced semiconductors used in generative AI at the center of the debate. The article explains that the structural factors are differences in growth rate, acceleration and accumulated capabilities, rather than rankings alone.
In its comparison of export values for the first half of 2026, The Nikkei reported that Japan's exports totaled $384.4 billion, compared with $496.3 billion for South Korea and $416.6 billion for Taiwan, marking the first time Japan had been surpassed by both. Semiconductors from Taiwan and South Korea have built a leading position by capturing demand for generative AI training and inference, while Japan has fallen behind in relative growth rate. The article argues that the issue is not rankings alone, but that differences in growth rate and acceleration create differences in long-term competitiveness.
The difference in acceleration is attributed to differences in accumulated capabilities, or "integration," built up over many years through investment, talent, technology, institutions and corporate collaboration. Japan remains strong in deep technologies such as semiconductor manufacturing equipment and materials, but is argued to have a weak integrator for bringing demand together and has not fully expanded the scope of value it captures. South Korea and Taiwan are generating acceleration by connecting AI demand to the market as a whole, centered on large-company concentrated integration in South Korea and ecosystem-based concentrated integration in Taiwan.