Against the backdrop of U.S. market trends, the Nikkei 225 is expected to show a slight bias toward TOPIX-style trading. With concerns over rising U.S. long-term interest rates, higher crude oil prices and geopolitical risks intersecting, attention will focus on rotation in major stocks and the direction of fund flows.
Buying is expected to be in focus in Japan's equity market on the 24th, supported by the trend in U.S. markets, although uncertainty over the situation in the Middle East is likely to discourage aggressive trading. In the U.S. market on the 21st, the Dow rose 517 points and the Nasdaq gained 113 points, while WTI crude oil rose into the $87-per-barrel range and U.S. long-term interest rates also climbed. Gains in cryptoassets also supported risk appetite.
The Nikkei 225 may come under initial selling pressure as it tracks Chicago futures. Nikkei 225 futures rose as high as ¥66,460 overnight and are expected to finish around ¥66,010. The focus will be on the movements of the 25-day and 75-day moving averages and whether the index can clearly break above the 75-day moving average. Selling into a rebound is also likely to come into focus.
The SOX Index fell in the U.S. market, and with NVIDIA's earnings report due, investors will be watching for signs of renewed momentum. Index-heavy semiconductor and AI-related stocks, including SoftBank Group, Advantest, Kioxia Holdings and Tokyo Electron, are expected to be driven mainly by rebalancing.
Meanwhile, some financial and pharmaceutical stocks are expected to attract buying in the U.S. market, raising the possibility of fund inflows into megabank stocks such as Mitsubishi UFJ and biotechnology-related stocks in Japan. The Trump administration is scheduled to announce details of tighter economic sanctions on Iran. Depending on Iran's response, geopolitical risks could intensify and push up crude oil futures prices, which would also put resource and shipping stocks in focus.