A Nomura Securities strategist explained that the lower bound of the range for Japanese stocks at the end of June 2026 had approached 50,250 for the Nikkei 225 and 3,350 for the TOPIX. With the sharp decline in US stocks and risk-off conditions continuing, these levels are viewed as having sufficiently priced in downside risks to the economy and earnings.
The Nikkei 225 temporarily fell by more than ¥2,800 from the previous day on 30 March 2026, approaching the lower bound of the range for the end of June indicated by Nomura Securities. The lower bound was presented as 50,250 for the Nikkei 225 and 3,350 for the TOPIX. A Nomura strategist expressed the view that the market is likely to find support and resist further declines around these levels.
In the US market on 27 March, major US stocks declined against the backdrop of reports on ceasefire negotiations and comments by senior Federal Reserve officials. The VIX rose into the 31 range, while high-yield bond spreads also remained elevated, increasing the number of indicators signaling risk-off conditions.
The S&P 500 closed at 6,368, approximately 8.7% below its late-January high, prompting focus on the possibility of a market correction. However, some analysis indicates that stock prices tend to recover over the following year when a US recession is avoided.
At the levels forecast by Nomura, a rate cut amid continued US economic expansion could provide a measure of reassurance to the market. With the market approaching the lower bound of the range for the end of June, dip buying by individual investors and pension funds, along with share buybacks, is expected to help limit further declines.