The dollar-yen rate next week is expected to lack a clear direction, with focus on key events scheduled for 11/2–11/6, monetary policy trends in Japan and the United States, and the outcome of the U.S. midterm elections.
The dollar-yen rate next week will be influenced by a succession of U.S. economic data releases from 2 to 6 November, with the ISM Manufacturing Index and PMI releases drawing market attention. Ahead of these releases, movements in U.S. long-term interest rates and the response of U.S. equity markets may affect the dollar-yen rate. Attention will also be focused on BOJ policy developments.
On Monday, 2 November, the U.S. October Manufacturing PMI and ISM Manufacturing Index are scheduled for release. If they exceed expectations, they could push U.S. long-term interest rates higher and support the dollar. Attention will also be required on the monetary policy stance following the October FOMC meeting.
On Tuesday, 3 November, the U.S. midterm elections and September JOLTS job openings data are scheduled for release. Because the Japanese market will be closed, overseas market trends are likely to have a greater influence. The election result could change the outlook for fiscal and monetary policy, making it a potential driver of dollar-yen volatility.
On Wednesday, 4 November, the United States will release its October ADP employment report, Services PMI, Composite PMI and ISM Services Index. Trends in employment and input price indexes could affect the outlook for the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy.
On Thursday, 5 November, the BOJ will release the minutes of its monetary policy meeting. While expectations of an additional rate hike at the December meeting may come into focus, views could change depending on trends in crude oil prices and AI demand. The United States is also scheduled to release initial jobless claims.