As the Nikkei 225 rebounded toward the weekend, the author looks ahead at the market while picking up attractively valued stocks after the decline from the June highs, amid the impact of the US and Japanese central bank meetings, which weighed on markets in the first half of the week. The article reviews the performance of major stocks and the market's overall trajectory.
Markets moved in different directions around the holiday period ahead of meetings by the US and Japanese central banks. On Thursday, the TOPIX strengthened by 0.80%, while the Nikkei 225 gained 0.33%. For the week as a whole, the Nikkei 225 rose 1.57% and the TOPIX 1.56%, with the composition of the gains differing between Thursday and Friday.
The market as a whole was not uniformly strong, suggesting that caution is warranted regarding the outlook from July onward. Meanwhile, major stocks including Kioxia, Tokyo Electron, Advantest and Lam Research have fallen sharply from their June highs. Kioxia is down approximately 50%, Tokyo Electron approximately 32%, Applied Materials approximately 42% and Lam Research approximately 38%.
In the US market, the SOX Index also rose sharply by 3.14% on Thursday, but Applied Materials and Lam Research posted only modest moves, and their declines from the highs have become protracted. The author is looking for opportunities to pick up semiconductor equipment stocks and related names, taking the view that “if not when prices are falling, when should one buy?”
With drawdowns from the June highs noted and declines in related stocks becoming pronounced on a stock-by-stock basis, the author suggests a policy of gradually adding to positions through September and October. Centered on the author's emphasis on the reliability of the market, the article reviews stock movements against the backdrop of economic and interest-rate trends, as well as the author's investment stance.