Views have increasingly emerged that the US-China leaders' meeting will amount to no more than a reprieve, with the focus of the October stock market shifting to assessing the strength of corporate earnings and cash flow. Hana Securities and Samsung Securities have pointed out that the race for dominance in AI-related technologies will continue.
The US and Chinese leaders are said to have agreed to extend the trade truce by 2 months through 10 January 2027, while disputes over advanced technologies have been left to subsequent negotiations and the stock market's focus is analyzed as shifting to assessing the strength of corporate earnings. Kim Dueong, an analyst at Hana Securities, said that market attention in October would shift from diplomatic expectations to earnings and advised that companies related to AI memory could attract attention.
Despite the agreement, the United States and China indicated that the race for dominance in AI technology would intensify, and bottlenecks in semiconductor supply are expected to continue. An analyst at Samsung Securities pointed to establishing a consultative body and communication channels to discuss AI-related risks and profits, expressing the view that the AI development race would continue over the medium to long term.
With Micron's earnings announcement imminent, it is attracting attention as the key market event at the beginning of October. It is considered important to confirm trends in demand for HBM and DRAM and the sustainability of earnings and cash flow in the next quarter, and a review of strategy was suggested depending on movements in semiconductor stocks after the earnings announcement.
The impact of conditions in the Middle East and high interest rates was also cited as a continuing obstacle to gains in the indices. Long-term interest rates could surge depending on the Federal Reserve's interest-rate outlook and price trends, leading to the view that a cautious market response will be required in October as well.