In the Tokyo market, the Nikkei Average rebounded, but gains remained limited. Market sentiment continues to be driven by the impact of the AI rally and CDS risk. Attention is focused on the performance of major stocks and the schedule ahead.
The Nikkei Average also posted a substantial gain from the previous day on the 22nd, but the advance was limited to the morning session and the index subsequently lost momentum. Risk-off moves continue amid the market correction that began the previous week. Trading value has also remained low, with analysis indicating that the number of market participants is declining as AI trading becomes more widespread.
The market's focus has shifted to CDS (credit default swap) movements, with CoreWeave's CDS spread temporarily rising to just over 1,100 basis points. This rapidly cooled investor sentiment and has become a factor prompting risk aversion across the market.
SoftBank Group's CDS spread has risen to 432 basis points, affecting the market-wide risk assessment of technology stocks. Reports that OpenAI is considering raising additional funds have emerged, alongside speculation that negotiations are progressing with SoftBank Group shareholders over funding.
The correlation between SoftBank Group and Arm Holdings may increase going forward, and movements in Arm shares are expected to be a focus for the market. Tomorrow, the Bank of Japan's survey on lending trends at major banks, the Ministry of Finance's disclosure of securities trading agreements, and the Bank of Japan's release of real export and import trends are scheduled.
Overseas, the Bank of Korea's interest-rate decision and the release of key European indices are due, while US companies will continue to report earnings. These developments may affect the balance between risk aversion and buybacks in the Japanese market.