As expectations for a September BoJ rate hike grow, the yen rose briefly to the ¥152 range and the 10-year JGB yield breached 3%. Views are spreading that the BoJ has positioned 2026 as a new rate-hiking phase.
The market now sees a September BoJ rate hike as almost certain, with the probability of a 0.25% increase in the policy rate at the 18 September meeting jumping to 97% in the overnight interest-rate swap market. In response, the yen briefly reached the ¥152-per-dollar range, shifting market attention toward interest-rate trends.
According to a Nikkei flash report, real GDP for the April-June quarter grew 1.4% on an annualized basis, exceeding the preliminary estimate of 1.1% and marking a third consecutive quarter of growth. Meanwhile, the decline in corporate capital investment narrowed from the initial estimate of 1.2% to 0.9%, and there are currently no signs that tighter financial conditions are causing a significant slowdown in the economy.
At the same time, real wages have risen for 7 consecutive months, and the market is focused on reports that BoJ officials have positioned 2026 as a “new rate-hiking phase.” Attention is turning to how interest rates will evolve following a September rate hike.