Even if November's Flat 35 rate is cut, it is expected to remain in the 3.5% range, while variable and 10-year fixed rates are expected to rise. Diamond Real Estate Research Institute forecasts future movements based on market interest-rate trends.
The article explains trends in market interest rates affecting mortgage loans, stating that the policy rate is 1.25% and that variable rates are expected to rise based on short-term rates. It points out that the Bank of Japan raised the policy rate at its September 2026 Monetary Policy Meeting, increasing upward pressure on variable rates thereafter.
As for long-term interest rates, the 10-year Japanese government bond yield was around 2.885% as of 22 October 2026. Bond selling is accelerating due to factors including yen depreciation, expansion of supplementary budgets and a widening Japan-US interest-rate differential, and fixed-rate mortgage rates are expected to rise.
The Bank of Japan's withdrawal from its long-standing easing policy and its policy of reducing government bond purchases are cited as factors pushing up long-term interest rates, potentially affecting fully fixed-rate mortgages as well. US interest-rate trends also warrant attention.
In conclusion, November mortgage rates are expected to see a cut in Flat 35 rates and increases in variable and 10-year fixed rates. The view presented is that a sharp rise in rates is unlikely, partly from the perspective of maintaining banks' profitability.