Gold prices are expected to seek direction this week depending on the results of the U.S. midterm elections and employment data. AI-related earnings and U.S.-Iran relations will also be watched as factors affecting price movements.
Gold prices fell from $3,996 to $3,875 last week in U.S. dollar terms, down approximately 3.0% for the week. In yen terms, the decline was moderated to 2.6% as the yen weakened. Toward the end of the week, prices fell below $3,900 and again moved into a long-term low range.
The backdrop included developments in Middle East diplomacy and market jitters surrounding earnings at major IT companies. Dollar interest rates declined slightly, while the dollar index was flat. Gold initially recovered to around $4,080 at one point, but the decline resumed as selling of AI-related stocks returned and crude oil prices rose again.
On the supply-and-demand front, outflows from gold ETFs eased, while speculative long positions continued to be unwound in the futures market. Fund flows into SPDR Gold Shares were broadly balanced throughout the week, while long positions in CME gold futures continued to decline, narrowing the net long position.
This week, the U.S. midterm elections, employment data, AI-related earnings and U.S.-Iran relations are expected to influence the market. The indicated range is centered on $4,100 on the upside and $3,800 on the downside, and gold prices could be affected by the earnings trends of AAPL, PLTR and AMD.