Topics discussed in connection with the Jackson Hole Symposium included the decline in the nominal effective exchange rate and the trend toward a weaker dollar, factors behind the rise in the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield, the extent to which the market has priced in a Bank of Japan rate hike, and SFG's outlook for bringing forward the hike.
The program examined the Jackson Hole Symposium and trends in the foreign exchange market, reporting the view that the nominal effective exchange rate had fallen again after the intervention and that the dollar was also on a declining trend. The rise in the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield and the recent sharp increase in the term premium were cited as the main factors.
An analysis indicated that conditions in Japan and the United States were similar, with confidence in policy said to be wavering. It was also suggested that the market was broadly pricing in a Bank of Japan rate hike in September.
Sony Financial Group indicated that it expected to bring forward its forecast for a Bank of Japan rate hike from October to September. The view presented was that the next hikes would come in January and July next year, with the final rate reaching 1.75%.