Tokio Marine stock faces risks from torrential rain in Chiba and rising prices… Is it wise to keep holding it in the New NISA just because “Buffett’s company bought it”?

Tokio Marine Holdings announced a large-scale stock split in August 2026, from 1 share into 15. Based on closing prices as of September, the indicative cost of purchasing 100 shares is expected to fall from approximately ¥820,000 to approximately ¥55,000 after the split. In addition, a Berkshire Hathaway insurance subsidiary invested approximately ¥287.4 billion in Tokio Marine in March 2026, pursuing a strategic partnership including reinsurance and M&A.

Risk factors in 2026 include the impact of the Chiba heavy rains and higher insurance premiums and repair costs due to rising prices. The heavy rains resulted in 20,307 motor insurance claims and approximately ¥20.6 billion in claims paid, and 11,495 fire insurance claims with approximately ¥14.3 billion paid. Total payments of approximately ¥35.4 billion are expected over about half a month. The impact of Typhoon No. 25 is also continuing, with Chiba Prefecture reporting that the affected area has expanded.

Average motor insurance claim costs are expected to rise 7% year on year in FY2025 and approximately 6% in FY2026, and higher repair costs could push up insurers’ payouts. Meanwhile, Tokio Marine implemented insurance premium increases of 3.5% in January 2025 and 8.5% in October of the same year, and plans an average increase of 6.5% in October 2026. Premium revenue was up 7.6% year on year as of August 2026.

In overseas operations, the difficulty of forecasting losses associated with underwriting high-profit lines such as cyber insurance and D&O insurance has been cited as a risk. At the same time, the company is considered to have scope to restore profitability by reviewing its capital and pricing after losses occur. From a long-term investment perspective, the company is viewed favorably for its ability to direct capital toward overseas growth based on stable businesses in Japan and diversify risk through a diversified management structure.