Of the 2026 listings scored on a 5-point scale for the risk of trading below the offer price and their upside potential, 20 companies, including ベルテックス, are presented as stocks to watch. ベルテックス opened at ¥607 and closed at ¥609, recovering after the five-day holiday.
The 2026 IPO market is expected to have a low number of listings, and concerns have been raised about the limited potential for gains on debut. While the list includes a growing number of stocks that have remained above their offer prices after listing, first-day price action and subsequent share-price performance have varied, and investors remain focused on determining when supply and demand will settle.
ベルテックス (623A) listed on the TSE Standard market on 18 September. Although its initial price was below the ¥550 public offering price, it closed at ¥609 on 24 September. Based on the company’s forecasts, its PER is expected to be in the 4–5x range, while the forecast initial dividend is ¥25–32, implying a yield of 4–5%. One analysis suggests that the founder’s status as a major shareholder, the 180-day lock-up and the absence of VC holdings could affect supply and demand.
This article selects 20 companies from the 2026 listings and assesses their risk of trading below the offer price and their upside potential. The assessment uses the distance from the public offering price, lock-up arrangements, VC holdings, margin-buying balances and earnings progress, while taking into account profit growth, valuation gaps and potential future catalysts. Share prices are compared based on closing prices on 24 September.
テクノクラフト (622A), which holds more than 60% of Japan’s golf-cart navigation market, is cited as an example of a target stock. Although it is trading below its offer price following the gap between its offer price and opening price, it may warrant a reassessment depending on upcoming earnings releases and cumulative progress, according to the analysis.