Gold has declined for three consecutive weeks but is holding around $4,300. This week, the FOMC and the Bank of Japan meeting will be the market's focus, with gold expected to fluctuate depending on developments in crude oil and US interest rates.
Gold prices fell to $4,349 last week amid a sharp rise in crude oil prices and higher US interest rates, marking a third consecutive weekly decline. The metal showed signs of holding around $4,300, while market disruption ahead of the CPI report remained limited. The decline in yen-denominated terms was smaller than that in US dollar-denominated terms.
In ETF flows, approximately $650 million flowed out of SPDR Gold Shares (GLD), while speculative long positions remained around the previous week's level. Meanwhile, gold holdings by the public sector continued to trend higher.
The key events this week are the FOMC meeting on 15–16 September and the Bank of Japan policy meeting on 17–18 September. Expectations for additional rate hikes and the direction of monetary policy in various countries could affect gold prices.
Amid the postponement of talks concerning the Strait of Hormuz and heightened tensions surrounding Iran, a prolonged rise in crude oil prices could weigh on gold. However, buying on dips may emerge around recent lows, and a return of ETF inflows may also be observed.
The recent forecast range for spot gold is seen as $4,500 on the upside and $4,200 on the downside.