An interview published by Nomura Securities presented estimates for the Nikkei 225 in 10 years under three scenarios through fiscal 2035. The base-case scenario puts the index above ¥110,000, the conservative scenario at around ¥90,000 and the high-growth realization scenario above ¥140,000.
As of July 2026, Nomura Securities' long-term estimates calculated the Nikkei 225 levels through fiscal 2035 at ¥110,448 under the main scenario (base case), ¥91,554 under the conservative scenario and ¥146,142 under the high-growth realization scenario. The high-growth realization scenario used in 2025 has been reset as the base-case scenario this time.
The long-term estimates assume EPS growth incorporating the contribution from overseas sales, whose ratio is above 40%, as well as the impact of share buybacks. EPS growth is assumed at approximately 6.8% under the base case, 6.1% under the conservative case and 9.5% under the high-growth realization case. The estimates also reflect the view that price increases resulting from inflation will contribute to EPS growth.
The valuation also rests on PER assumptions: 17x under the base case, 15x under the conservative case and 18x under the high-growth realization case. The estimates reflect the view that interest-rate trends and growth expectations affect PER. As factors supporting global growth, it was explained that, in addition to the assumed real GDP growth rate, inflation will raise companies' selling prices and support long-term equity valuation levels.