In the New York foreign exchange market on the 12th, dollar-yen rose from ¥158.57 to ¥158.75. Expectations of higher interest rates against a backdrop of higher oil prices supported the dollar, making movements in cross-yen pairs another area requiring attention.
In the New York market on the 12th, dollar-yen traded in the lower ¥158 range and closed around ¥158.75. Against a backdrop of higher oil prices, concerns about U.S. inflation intensified, and expectations of higher interest rates were widely seen as having pushed up the dollar. In Europe, euro-dollar declined amid concerns about deteriorating fiscal conditions, also affecting movements in cross-yen pairs.
For the outlook on the 13th, the dollar is expected to remain firm, although its upside may be limited depending on movements in the Japan-U.S. interest rate differential. Technically, the immediate focus is whether it can break above the 200-day moving average. If it establishes a foothold above that level, it could continue to advance. Meanwhile, attention to ¥160, regarded as Japan's defense line, could heighten caution over foreign exchange intervention and require attention to downside risks.
In Europe, concerns about deteriorating fiscal conditions remain, with Fitch warning of the risk of a downgrade for France. Euro-dollar has set a new one-year, five-month low, and attention is also focused on movements in cross-yen pairs.