Marine Le Pen, the far-right candidate in France's 2027 presidential election, is becoming an increasingly realistic prospect, with her candidacy now widely expected to be formalised. The potential impact on fiscal policy and the EU's operations is drawing attention as a spillover risk for markets and Japan.
Ahead of France's 2027 presidential election, Marine Le Pen, the de facto leader of the far-right National Rally (RN), has kept open a path to running. Although she was convicted on appeal, the period of ineligibility imposed at first instance was shortened, and she was deemed to have served part of the custodial sentence, excluding the suspended portion. Her path to standing in the election is therefore considered to have been opened.
Le Pen has announced her intention to run, and she is now expected to be RN's presidential candidate rather than the party's current leader. Developments surrounding the presidency could also affect EU policy and support for Ukraine.
As a major European country, France's presidential election is being closely watched because Le Pen's political stance is viewed as more likely to favour expansionary fiscal policies, potentially affecting financial markets and fiscal discipline. Market participants in France and abroad are paying close attention.
Recent opinion polls show that 35% of respondents say they would support Le Pen in the first round of the 2027 presidential election, while centrist forces have struggled to gain ground. The consolidation of anti-far-right votes in the runoff could be a factor in reversing the result.