EUR/JPY remained range-bound without a clear direction, showing firmness in the low ¥176s while being blocked by the ¥178 ceiling. This week's focus is which way the ¥176.20–178.00 range will break.
Looking back from last week, euro-yen continued to trade around the low ¥176 range as various factors intersected, including higher oil prices due to rising tensions in the Middle East, developments in US inflation indicators and expectations that the Bank of Japan would leave policy unchanged. On the 13th, reports that the BOJ might refrain from raising interest rates prompted initial yen selling, but euro-yen fell to ¥176.49 under pressure from euro weakness.
The dollar subsequently swung back after US inflation data, and euro-yen at times recovered its downside to the upper ¥176 range. However, the previous week's low of ¥176.22 provided firm support and the pair rebounded again. It briefly rose to ¥177.97 on the 16th but failed to break through the psychological ¥178 barrier, returning to the range.
Technical analysis shows that support around ¥176.30 is holding firmly, while resistance at ¥178.00 remains substantial. The daily downtrend has paused, and the pair is moving into a ¥176.30–¥178.00 range. The focus this week is whether the range will break, with the expected range seen at ¥176.20–¥178.10.
Overall, expectations that the BOJ will leave policy unchanged are limiting yen movements while the euro's fundamentals remain weak. The market is expected to remain focused on selling into rebounds in the ¥177.50–¥178.00 upper-range zone and on small price movements within the range.