A ten-bagger investor believes the Nikkei 225 could trade within a wide ¥50,000-¥80,000 range. The report examines this view alongside the course of US-Japan tariff negotiations and movements in semiconductor stocks. The impact of yen depreciation on stock-price levels is also identified as a key point of focus.
The Nikkei 225 has been highly volatile, and as the market looks toward year-end, it has been suggested that the index could trade within a ¥50,000-¥80,000 range. A scenario in which continued momentum carries it to ¥80,000 has not been completely ruled out.
In the past, around July 2025, the Nikkei 225 hit new highs in the ¥39,000-¥41,000 range. Although it is now trading higher, its advance appears to be heavily supported by the strength of semiconductor-related stocks. At the same time, the view has been expressed that sectors other than semiconductors remain weak.
Currency movements are also important. If USD/JPY were to move from around ¥100 to around ¥160, the dollar-denominated value of Japanese equities could diverge from their share prices as displayed in yen. The view has been expressed that if the assumption that yen depreciation is pushing up stock prices were to break down, the current equity rally would no longer be on solid footing.
Going forward, movements in semiconductor stocks, the rotation of funds between sectors and the sustainability of yen depreciation are expected to have a significant impact on the Nikkei 225, and are being watched as risks for the year-end market.