Amid continued uncertainty over the situation in the Middle East, Nomura Securities maintained its forecast of ¥60,000 for the Nikkei 225 at the end of 2026. Three optimistic signals for the US economy were cited as the basis for the outlook.
While the worsening situation in the Middle East and higher crude oil prices are a concern, the US economy is not heading into stagflation, and the outlook for Japanese equities has been maintained against a backdrop of 3 optimistic signals. Ikeda Yunosuke (池田雄之輔) of Nomura Securities explained the outlook.
The second optimistic signal is that the three-month moving average of the ISM business conditions index is showing strength in both the manufacturing and services sectors. The view was presented that this reflects the impact of refunds from the Trump tax cuts enacted in 2025.
The credit markets are viewed as showing no negative signals, and their performance relative to the VIX was also described as an optimistic factor.
As earnings announcements gather momentum, companies may issue cautious profit forecasts against a backdrop of higher crude oil prices, but over the medium to long term, the market is viewed not as a cause for pessimism but as an opportunity to buy on dips. The target for the Nikkei 225 is ¥60,000 at the end of December 2026, with earnings growth expected to continue in fiscal 2027 and beyond.