Brokerage stocks, including Nomura Holdings, have remained firm, with rising demand among individuals for asset management and the shift “from savings to investment” driven by inflation and higher interest rates emerging as key factors. Changes in the brokerage industry as it advances structural reforms are also attracting attention.
Brokerage stocks such as Nomura Holdings are quietly attracting market attention, while their characteristics as cyclical stocks are gradually fading. Behind this trend is not only an improving market environment, but also changes in the business models that the brokerage industry has been pursuing over the long term.
Healthy investor finances are supporting the strength of brokerage stocks. Even as the Nikkei 225 undergoes a modest correction near its highs, the TOPIX has remained stable, with funds flowing into undervalued and domestic-demand stocks. Rising investment gains among individual investors are stimulating demand for asset management and providing a tailwind for the stable earnings of brokerage firms.
Changes in the environment brought about by inflation and higher interest rates are also having an impact. The yield on newly issued 10-year Japanese government bonds has risen to nearly 3%, while household holdings of equities and investment trusts increased 44% year on year to approximately ¥678 trillion, surpassing insurance and pension assets of approximately ¥585 trillion. Against a backdrop of declining savings values, awareness of asset management as a means of protecting wealth is growing.
The brokerage industry has been shifting toward a model in which it holds customers’ assets over the medium to long term and earns recurring fees based on assets under custody, in order to capture individual investors’ demand for asset management. Holdings of investment trusts and fund wraps are increasing, and an earnings base less excessively dependent on daily market fluctuations is gradually taking shape.