Nikkei 225 futures are expected to be driven this week mainly by a long strategy focused on buying dips for a rebound, while monitoring oil prices and U.S. interest-rate trends, with intraday trading likely to remain within a narrow range.
Following last week's trend, Nikkei 225 futures have been active against a backdrop of a sharp rise in oil prices and U.S. interest-rate trends. Prices have fluctuated in trading including the night session, while also showing resilience at times, keeping dip-buying long positions in focus. With various daily and weekly indicators coming into play, there are many factors to watch in determining when the market will break out of its range.
The Nikkei 225 futures closing price is holding around ¥65,830, with a recovery above the 25-day moving average and the direction of the 75-day moving average the focus. After a battle around the -1σ to -2σ levels of the Bollinger Bands, prices have notably moved back toward the midpoint. The Ichimoku cloud also warrants attention. A break above the cloud top would point to further upside, while a break below the cloud bottom would indicate a potential decline.
In the U.S. market, the Dow, S&P and Nasdaq fell at times, while semiconductor and AI-related stocks showed relative strength. Expectations of increased production at Micron Technology and third-party developments could spill over to stocks with a large impact on the indices, and Nikkei Average-linked moves are expected to have the upper hand at times. Close attention is also required to U.S. economic data releases through the 10th.
The U.S. producer price index (PPI) and consumer price index (CPI) are scheduled for release this week, and short-term positioning could become more active depending on the impact of the Jackson Hole meeting and the employment report. In ETF and futures trading, strategies centered on Nikkei Average-linked products are expected to prevail at times, with a range of ¥63,500 to ¥67,500 in focus.