Japan is expected to overtake China as the world's largest LNG importer in 2026, with Japan's imports forecast to narrowly exceed China's based on estimates from ICIS and Kpler. ICIS forecasts 62 million tonnes for Japan versus 61 million tonnes for China, while Kpler forecasts 63 million tonnes for Japan versus 62 million tonnes for China.
Japan is expected to become the world's largest LNG importer in 2026, marking the first opportunity for it to overtake China.
According to estimates from ICIS and Kpler, Japan's imports are expected to exceed China's. ICIS estimates 62 million tonnes for Japan and 61 million tonnes for China, while Kpler estimates 63 million tonnes for Japan and 62 million tonnes for China.
The factors behind this change include demand trends across Asia driven by transport disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz and rising spot prices, as well as the impact of China's inventory accumulation, which eased the winter supply-demand balance.
China has reportedly been working to secure sufficient underground storage capacity, which is said to be around 80% full as of the end of September. In Japan, moves to curb gas-fired power generation and switch to coal during the summer affected the import environment.
These factors have shaped this year's supply-demand conditions and increased the possibility of a change in the top position in 2026.