USD/JPY rose briefly to the ¥159 level and appears to have broken above its 200-day moving average. Further attempts to test this level are expected, and attention is focused on subsequent developments.
In the previous day's trading, USD/JPY rose and briefly reached the ¥159 level. The dollar was bought against a backdrop of rising crude oil prices and movements in U.S. long-term interest rates, while the yen was also seen weakening. Dollar buying and yen selling may continue because of differences in monetary policy between Japan and overseas markets. With USD/JPY having clearly broken above its 200-day moving average, some market participants expect the upswing to accelerate from a technical perspective.
Today’s expected range for USD/JPY is 158.000-159.800, and key market factors are being assessed alongside movements in major currency pairs. Market participants point to the possibility that factors supporting dollar buying will remain, against the backdrop of recent policy coordination between Japan and the United States and remarks by senior Fed officials. Concerns about Bank of Japan intervention also remain a source of tension across the market.
In terms of economic indicators and events, the scheduled release of U.S. August durable goods orders, speeches related to the Fed, and comments from ECB officials are expected to potentially affect the market’s direction. Forecasts for U.S. initial jobless claims have at times pointed to an earlier shift, and attention to short-term interest-rate trends is expected to continue.
From a technical perspective, the focus will be on whether USD/JPY can hold above the 200-day moving average. With the psychological ¥160 level approaching, volatile trading may continue. Differences in stance between the monetary authorities of Japan and the United States are also cited as a factor that could affect the market tug-of-war.