The NT ratio is calculated by dividing the Nikkei Average by the TOPIX, and fell to its 200-day moving average on 15 September. After reaching a 2026 high of 18x on 25 June, the ratio has declined more clearly as the correction in AI and semiconductor stocks gave the TOPIX a relative advantage. Going forward, movements around the 200-day moving average will be a key market focus.
The NT ratio is calculated by dividing the Nikkei Average by the TOPIX, and fell to its 200-day moving average in trading on 15 September. This marked the second time the ratio had reached its 200-day moving average as of September 2026, indicating that market leadership is changing from one phase to another.
The Nikkei Average tends to outperform relatively during periods when the NT ratio is rising, as it is influenced by AI and semiconductor stocks. When the ratio is falling, TOPIX constituents, particularly banks, are generally viewed as relatively stronger. The NT ratio peaked at 18x on 25 June 2026, after which its decline became more pronounced amid a correction in AI and semiconductor stocks.
The ratio found support at its 200-day moving average in July and briefly rebounded, but is expected to continue falling below the 200-day moving average again. Movements around the 200-day moving average will also be considered important in assessing the market outlook from October onward.
Comparisons in the charts show that TOPIX500 Growth has continued to diverge from the Nikkei Average. The expected scenario is that rising bank stocks and capital inflows will push the TOPIX higher. The view is that the NT ratio is unlikely to rise for some time.