The Japanese government holds more than approximately one-third of JT shares, with a market value of around ¥4 trillion. Assuming a full sale, this article examines the fiscal impact and realistic sale options, along with past examples and international developments.
The Japanese government holds approximately 33.34% of JT's total issued shares, equivalent to approximately 37.55% excluding treasury shares. The shares were valued at approximately ¥4.8 trillion as of October 2026 and remained around ¥4 trillion even after the sharp drop in JT's share price as of 12 November. The government receives annual dividends from its JT shareholding. Based on JT's fiscal 2026 annual dividend forecast of ¥272 per share, its holding is expected to generate approximately ¥181.4 billion in dividend income.
Options for selling the government's shareholding include secondary offerings in Japan and overseas, a partial repurchase by JT itself, and block sales to institutional investors. In any of these cases, the shares entering the market could put downward pressure on the share price, while increased liquidity could also change where funds flow.
On the other hand, a full sale of JT shares would make the fiscal revenue a one-off event and risk the loss of long-term dividend income. A sale would not provide a complete solution to the fiscal situation, and legislative amendments and budgetary measures would be required to address fiscal needs.
South Korea fully privatized its state-owned tobacco company after the IMF crisis, advancing privatization through share sales. Japan, however, remains subject to the framework of the Act on Japan Tobacco, Inc., which continues to require the government to hold more than one-third of JT. Internationally, the FCTC calls for independence to be ensured, and debate continues over how the government should balance health policy with the protection of the industry.