The U.S. residential solar power market is expected to grow from approximately $9.93 billion in 2025 to approximately $38.75 billion in 2035, with a forecast CAGR of 14.58%. Tax reforms and the broader adoption of energy storage are among the factors cited as supporting long-term growth.
The U.S. residential PV market was estimated at approximately $9.93 billion in 2025 and is expected to grow to approximately $38.75 billion by 2035. The CAGR for the forecast period from 2026 to 2035 is projected at 14.58%, an indicator supporting long-term growth.
Market growth will be influenced not only by the adoption of solar panels but also by factors including reductions in household electricity costs, integration with residential battery storage, higher energy self-sufficiency and the evolution of financial services. Short-term conditions, such as changes to tax incentives, installation costs, interest rates and local regulations, will also affect market trends.
According to an announcement by the U.S. Internal Revenue Service, the residential clean energy tax credit (Section 25D) ended at the end of 2025. This may make it important to review proposal methods that assume the availability of tax credits and to use financing methods such as leases, third-party ownership (TPO) models and PPAs.
Regional differences are also an important factor. While major areas, including California, offer significant market opportunities, electricity systems, installation requirements and compensation schemes differ by state, making it necessary to adapt business models and partnership strategies to local conditions.