Next week's earnings and economic calendar will be in focus. The Nikkei Average's attempt to reach the ¥70,000 range, trends in AI and semiconductor-related stocks, and the release of TSMC's monthly sales are expected to be key themes. Remarks by the BOJ governor and developments at the extraordinary Diet session could also affect market breadth.
In next week's Tokyo market, the Nikkei Average is expected to test the ¥70,000 range amid expectations for earnings from AI and semiconductor-related companies. At the same time, selling related to ex-rights dates and concerns over high valuations may emerge, creating the potential for both sharp, localized rises and falls. TSMC's September monthly sales, scheduled for the 8th, are expected to be an important catalyst that will reaffirm the strength of demand for AI semiconductors. The announcement of TOPIX's periodic review on the 7th and the options SQ on the 9th could affect supply and demand for individual stocks.
On the macroeconomic front, BOJ Governor Ueda Kazuo (植田和男) will deliver remarks at the National Securities Conference on the 6th. Any indication of an additional BOJ rate hike could affect the yen, banks and growth stocks. At the extraordinary Diet session convened on the 5th, the government will present its policy address, and attention will focus on whether its fiscal spending and government bond issuance policies will feed through to long-term interest rates.
Among individual companies, earnings from Fast Retailing and Seven & i Holdings on the 8th will provide clues on domestic demand and consumption. Yaskawa Electric's earnings on the 9th will serve as an indicator of capital investment and semiconductor-related demand trends and could affect sentiment across manufacturing stocks.
In the US market, developments in the employment report and the release of the FOMC minutes will be key catalysts. A slowdown in employment growth and interest-rate trends could affect the market's rate pricing and determine the direction of the Nasdaq Composite and S&P 500.
At Marvell Technology Group's Investor Day, market participants will continue to assess the sustainability of AI infrastructure demand. The focus will be on whether the monthly sales of APLDD and TSMC on the 8th confirm the continued strength of AI-related demand.