The morning USD/JPY forecast anticipates a full retracement alongside U.S. Treasury yields. The pair is expected to continue seeking stability, with a projected range of 158.300–159.700 yen.
The forecast was prepared at 7:30 a.m. on 21 August 2026. The projected USD/JPY range is 158.300 to 159.700 yen, and today's trading is expected to see the pair seek stability against a backdrop of volatility.
Looking back at the previous day, USD/JPY rose approximately 0.6% based on the closing price. Dollar selling initially prevailed after the U.S. Treasury announced an expansion of its buyback and cancellation of long-term government bonds, but the decline halted at around 158.03 yen before the pair rebounded in overseas markets. As buybacks came to be widely viewed as a stopgap measure, the rise in long-term U.S. interest rates was not expected to accelerate significantly.
Looking ahead, some market participants expect U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessent to indicate an expansion of buybacks and potentially announce a policy of fiscal consolidation late this week or early next week. The dollar's gains against the yen have recovered the levels seen as of yesterday, and volatile trading is expected this morning. The downside reference level is around 158.30 yen, while the upside reference level is around 159.70 yen.